Is there the political will?
Valery Karbalevich: "The magazine" Newsweek "comes to the conclusion that Lukashenko has" got "Moscow and Brussels, that they finally realized and decided to make the outcome of Lukashenko in the presidential election. How realistic is such a scenario?"
Alexander Klaskouski: "I think it is unreal. Several of our resources have seized upon the publication in the American Journal and filed it as some kind of serious political science concept. And I looked in the original. There on this subject published half a paragraph. Moreover, this author writes on a variety of topics, and felt that he was not too knowledgeable about the subject. example, he mentions that since Belarusians watch Russian TV channels, the movie "The Godfather" has hit the image of Lukashenka.
If in fact — perhaps the name Lukashenko once and appears in negotiations between Brussels and Moscow, when it comes to specific issues. For example, the issue of transit gas wars. But the EU and the U.S. have removed the issue of changing Lukashenko. And by the way, he has several times publicly thanked Washington and Brussels for the fact that they have rejected the script. After 2006, when the "color revolution" failed, West moved to the pragmatic relations with Minsk. Especially this pragmatism strengthened after the Russian-Georgian war of 2008. It was decided to take Belarus such as they are, and it gradually adapt. Separate issue that came out of it. But today, the EU is more inclined to give Belarus in Moscow's sphere of influence. "
Kirill Koktysh: "This is not possible because of two reasons. Firstly, Brussels — weak political entity. EU has not been able to effectively conduct its own foreign policy. More effectively address issues directly with individual EU states than in the EU as a whole.
Second, Russia after 2004, ie, after an unsuccessful attempt to influence the election in Ukraine, then in Abkhazia, does not seek to influence the change of power in neighboring countries. It uses mostly the economic levers.
The best that Moscow is ready, it is realized that the script, which she used during the elections in Ukraine. The Russian leadership has demonstrated he does not want to deal with Yushchenko and will deal with any alternative. And then demonstrated this in cooperation with Yanukovych. But it should be noted that the Russian strategy towards Belarus has not been formed. "
What is the same and not the same purpose between Moscow and Brussels?
Karbalevich: "Both of my interlocutors pointed out that this is impossible because of the lack of political will and a strong commitment on the part of Russia and the EU in this scenario.
But if you look at it from the other side … Imagine that there is a political will. And then there is another problem. Russia and the EU — rivals for control of the region, which includes Belarus. What is the same and not the same purpose between Moscow and Brussels on the Belarusian issue? "
Klaskouski: "What is obvious, and for both Moscow and Brussels Lukashenko — a difficult, uncomfortable partner. Theoretically, the Russian Federation and the European Union with a great relief to have acquired here flexible negotiability partner.
But here there is a problem of different purposes. The EU is seeking to establish democracy in Belarus, the market economy. And in Russia's expansionist goals. Moscow pressured to pull into the Customs Union of Belarus, which is a form of control over the recovery of the Russian post-Soviet space. Russia seeks to pick up attractive assets. Russia needs an obedient vassal. And democracy Moscow "on the drum."
But the goals of the Russian Federation and the EU agree to Belarus was stable, there was a normal transit. But for that both sides are more inclined to agree with that leader who is and who, though not very elegant, but very much in charge hands. "
Koktyish: "The economic interests of Russia and the EU on the Belarusian issue is more or less the same. This is particularly reliable transit of Russian energy to Europe via Belarus.
Belarusian market can not be interesting. A Belarusian assets have value only in the presence of the Russian market. EU Belarusian products (except oil) is not needed.
Therefore, theoretically, to find common ground on the Belarusian issue the EU and Russia could. But the European Union is going through a severe economic problems, so has the reputation of a subject who is not able to answer for himself. And the situation is as follows: one person has a serious problem, and the second — too, and here they are taken together to solve some external problem. It seems unlikely. "
There are mechanisms to influence the situation in Belarus?
Karbalevich: "Let's do one more theoretical assumption: Imagine that Russia and the EU agreed, decided to make the resignation of Lukashenko. But it's almost done? Whether they have mechanisms to influence the situation in Belarus?"
Klaskouski: "In fact, they have very little leverage. Moscow itself helped to establish a rigid authoritarian regime in Belarus, which is now hard to bite something. Even if Russia will conceive promote someone to the presidency, then make it through the democratic mechanisms difficult. Fact here burnt the political field. Indeed, the Belarusian authorities that figure to roll up the asphalt.
You can bring down the cost of Belarus, if shut off all taps. But getting an uncontrollable situation like chaos on the western border of the Kyrgyz Moscow is not needed.
And in Brussels, there are no strong or carrot or the stick. But market reforms in Belarus and Russia are beneficial, and the EU. After all, they would contribute to the arrival here of foreign capital. "
Koktyish: "Russia has the mechanisms of influence on Belarus. First of all, it is the Russian subsidies of the Belarusian economy in the form of cheap energy. When Russia will launch a bypass line, the subsidy will be reduced, the Belarusian budget is a lot to lose.
As for the economic chaos in Belarus, in good relations with Ukraine to Russia is not terrible. A renewed formula for Belarus: Belarusian leader must first have a good relationship with Russia.
Therefore, Russia will not use its tools to change the government. In the EU, these instruments of influence on Belarus not. Brussels is not ready to replace Belarus Russian subsidies ($ 5 billion. Annually).