Ethiopia also ruined the oil?

Swedish journalists Martin Shibbyue and Johan Persson December 27 Ethiopian tribunal sentenced to 11 years' bullpen "for supporting terrorists and illegal crossing of the border." According to the judge Shemsu Sirgagi so severe sentence would serve the establishment of "peace and security" in Ethiopia.

According to investigators, the Swedes are not only supported the idea of Ogaden separatists seeking his office, and took military training in their camps. And the verdict could be far more serious, as initially blamed the Swedes and in particular involvement in terrorist activities, but because of the shortcomings of evidence that part of the charges were dropped.

It seems to be better or worse, the protection of prisoners preparing to appeal the decision, which the discontented and the Swedish Foreign Ministry, representative which stated: "It is unfair, because the journalists were in the performance of official responsibilities." In the same spirit, spoke, and Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, who called the Ethiopian authorities to reconsider the sentence and release the media.

Last categorically deny the charge, and point to the fact that they were only interaction with the ONLF in the journalistic investigation on the activities of Swedish oil company Lundin Oil, worked in the region. Though not entirely clear that the Swedes vosprepyadstvovalo cooperation with the Ethiopian authorities and why they did not at first did business with Addis Ababa, and with favorites ogadenskih separatists.

Recall that this story began on July 1, when Ethiopian security forces detained and Swedes together with a group of rebels from the separatist Ogaden Liberation Front government (ONLF) on the border with Somalia. As for the Ogaden, the struggle for this great largest region in eastern Ethiopia between the Ethiopians and the Muslim sultanate was conducted with varying success since the XIII century, until in the end of XIX century Negus Ethiopia force has not set there power.

In 1936, Ethiopia captured the Italians, then joined the Somali Ogaden to their possessions. Ethiopians return it was only in 1954, after lengthy negotiations with Britain, sparking a growing resistance from the local population, which by the end of the 1970s evolved into openly separatist form.

Openly supported the rebels Somalia, that led to the war Ogadenskoy 1977-78. But, despite the initial successes invaded the area of Ethiopia Somali troops who managed to capture a large part of the region, as a result, with the active assistance of the USSR, Cuba, South Yemen, Somalis have been broken. But talk about the victory was early, and in 1984 the separatists again visibly lifted up the head. At some time the Ethiopians managed to partially stabilize the situation here, but in 2007 was followed by a new aggravation, not least due to the discovery in the area of large supplies of oil.

The situation in an interview with "Pravda.Ru" says an expert on the Horn of Africa, Ivan Konovalov: "The problem is that the war in the Ogaden, where historically inhabited by Somali Ogaden clan, is not even a decade and century. So it is unlikely to be a general used to address this sensitive issue.

Violence in fact does not stop there and find out who is more in this povinet, occupation obviously nepriznatelnoe. Both are obviously not at war, the white-gloved hands. For subsequent prospects of Ethiopia in the Ogaden, then based on the fact that at the moment she is in control of this region even better than before, in the coming future hopes for its separation from this country hardly necessary.

But the neighborhood is in a state with the collapse of Somalia, where there are endless clashes obviously is naughty moment. After all Somalis fail to have forgotten about the Ogaden which historically and politically linked to Somalia.

See also: "Ladies 'question' in Somalia addressed aggressively

That, in turn, forces the Addis Ababa relate to what's happening on the other side of the border events with great attention, and in one way or another involved in the fight for the Somali countryside. It was observed a few years back, when the Ethiopians came out openly against the intensified there, "Islamic Courts", as in the case of their victory here would be followed by an exacerbation in the Ogaden, on which Somalis are instantly pushed to an old claim. In this connection it should be appropriately considered and last autumn the role of Ethiopian troops in the Kenyan operation.

As for the so stunning indictment of Swedish journalists, there remains hope that the Ethiopian authorities have simply decided to scare those who wish to come to this very bad for their region, and later released these prisoners. True, some clarity to the situation can make just to introduce the documentary basis of their case.

It seems that there may be, to a certain extent can be appreciated Ethiopia: after entering here without the knowledge of the official Addis Ababa people from outside and active contact with the movements, the Ethiopian authorities have deemed terrorist, almost all look defiant. Especially since in the past journalistic cover for action in other regions or intensively used the secret services. "

Who is interested in the bombing of Ethiopia? Curiously, at the moment, from the standpoint of Western interests, the additional aggravation in this country hardly profitable. In any case, the U.S. announced Ethiopia's strategic partner in the fight against terrorism and help her intense power structures. Yet, as soon as the official representatives of the South American are increasingly in one voice with human rights activists criticize the government of Ethiopia for the Tipo have been massive human rights violations and even war crimes in the Ogaden.

In any event, they act contrary to the strategic interests of Addis Ababa. On the other hand we should not forget such time that the opposing Ethiopia Separatists have long been entrenched in the English countryside. Albion, in turn, does not abandon the representatives of movements in conflict with the authorities or those of other states, based ever use them for their own purposes.

In general, apart from the "historical" Somali enemy from Ethiopia and many other problems with other African countries, for example, with the northern Sudan and Egypt, to express outrage regarding the basic plan of Addis Ababa on the Nile water. In the same bunch goes and inveterate problem with the splinter still in Eritrea in 1993, resulting in Ethiopia lost access to the sea. From the standpoint of the interests of the Ethiopian, his return is a true fundamental state task.

And in view of the intractability of Ethiopians in Eritrea is tempting to regain control of the power, if not its entire territory, at least over part of the Reddish Sea coast. It seems that there may be, but because of the "danger" Eritreans have links with all the enemies of Ethiopia, including Somalis.

It is necessary to keep in mind about the other point: after the collapse of Gaddafi in Eritrea increased dramatically position of his opponent, the Qatari Emir Al-Thani, thanks to the currency by which, according to various sources, the Eritrean budget depended on 40-60 percent. In addition, destabilization of Ethiopia by supporting fully certain political forces in the Somalia also in charge of his present interests in Africa, including the raw materials.

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