Movies NTV. Can we expect further action from Moscow?

Listen to the Company's transfer to air on Sunday, 18, Minsk time. And now — a fragment.


Dynko: "This film, I think, very personally" pushes "Alexander Kozulin kandydavannya to the election, to return to politics. Kozulin And if under the influence of the signal so decides, it will be crucial for the next presidential campaign. It seems to me that, in general, Taking these two films, they are strongly encouraged opposition political forces. Indeed, they found a new field for deyannya.Yany have new hope. This may be one of the most important results of these two shows. "

Sheremet: "The appearance of such films can be viewed her preparation of public opinion to any other steps in the political arena or in the economic sphere. First, people need to explain who the enemy is, and why it is so dangerous, then to calm people perceived any steps against the enemy … Moscow wants to weaken Lukashenko, so you can easily make it to some steps …

However, I would not draw the conclusion that Moscow has a plan to change the political regime in Belarus. It is quite possible, and we watched it over and over again that it is a campaign of pressure, which has no shift of power to Lukashenko, and forced some of his actions as president. It is stored as president, he does not interfere with "triumphant" to win, but for that he in the Customs Union, a political union, a common political space makes asastupki. So, to say that we are seeing the beginning of a large-scale operation in Moscow in Belarus — not.


I am absolutely convinced that both Putin and Medvedev understands that democratic means to change the power in Belarus is almost impossible — strong totalitarian regimes do not leave under pressure from voters. In this case, no one in Moscow thinks apply some methods of force against Belarus. This is not Georgia or Kyrgyzstan, the situation there under Shevardnadze and Akieva and Bakiyev bbyli extremely unstable, it states could dump a jerk. Belarusian state is different from when Shevardnadze of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan under Akayev and Baekieva that it is solid, durable, which is suppressed by the electorate, crushed, not active opposition. And if in Belarus will not have a powerful movement of liberation — of course, Moscow did not cross this boundary (from the original in Russian — "Fringe" — SN). If in Belarus will start any protest or appear strong candidates to win over a large part of the electorate, then of course, Moscow played along. Absolutely played along! And from those conversations with experts, which I drove to Moscow now, by and large, do not care, it will be a pro-Western candidate, or the pro-Russian candidate. The main thing that it was a strong candidate, because everybody understands that following the President Lukashenka Head of State all the same is an intermediate figure. All the same this will be the person who will hold power for long. And after the regime change occurs perakanfiguratsyya forces. And then there will be more open to intervene on the or otherwise side and financially, politically, and personnel. "

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