Nuclear race rises in the East

August 6 and 9, our planetka noted woeful jubilee — 65 years from the day or the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In fact, these actions have graduated from the Second World War: fear of new adverse shocks, Japan soon surrendered. But the defeat of the last of powers "Axis" did not bring calm planet, plunged into a nuclear arms race.

The first country in the region to its nuclear weapon acquired China. And in 2006, the number of nuclear powers immediately doubled due DPRK. This has not gone unnoticed by the neighbors. Management of the Land of the Rising Sun, South Korea and Taiwan made statements in which not exclude the fact that the deterioration of the situation in the region, they can also become members of the "nuclear club."

Oh how true this is, in an interview, said an expert on nuclear technology Maritime Municipal Institute. Nevelskoy Vladimir crystal.

— What is the reason that many countries, including those in the Far East, is now trying to get a nuclear weapon?

— In 1-x, the situation in the world is measured. We litsezreem as former outsiders trying to find their place in the sun and immediately seek to add to their growing impact of a nuclear shield.

After Contract Non-Proliferation, in fact, is discriminatory. Several states have decided that only they can have nuclear weapon and no one else. However, even this principle did not work. These powers have closed their eyes to the way was the same nuclear Israel. But now the situation is developing on a "falling domino" and soon many will become the owners of nuclear weapons, if they deem it necessary.

One of the reasons why many of them tend to possess, is that everyday more and more expensive instrument, while the development of nuclear is more cheaper. Already at the time of the latest estimated at 300 million dollars. Notional figure, but the order of magnitude is typical.

— How is it possible that Japan, as a country, suffered from atomic bombings, she will get a nuclear weapon?

— It all depends on the political will of the administration of this country. Funds for the speedy implementation of similar programs from the Land of the Rising Sun have enough. In terms of technology it has to have all of this already. And this time, the country will come in handy very little: from 2 months to 3 years.

The difference in the timing justified by differences in the initial assessment of the present state of affairs in the country's military-industrial complex of the dilemma. Well, then the delay is justified, priemuschestvenno, bureaucratic moments. Should in fact adopt various estimates, to adopt the budget, while also give teachings to those suitably rearranged their work.

Just shortly before the guarantor of the security land of the rising sun has been and remains the U.S., because the possession of a nuclear weapon to Tokyo was not quite so exciting ones.

— How close to a nuclear weapon South Korea?

— This country also have the requisite skills. However, the time costs in this case will be more, as resources from South Korea for its nuclear programs from less than in the Land of the Rising Sun. At the moment, it keeps from doing only the presence of the South American nuclear "umbrella." Namely, in 2009, South Korea received the assurance that in the event of a nuclear attack on the DPRK it will be a similar answer "legitimate."

By giving such assurances, the Americans were intended to not only deter North Korea, and preventing the emergence on the world map once a nuclear power.

But again, that all the necessary technologies are already in Seoul. The fact is that the future development of such countries as South Korea quite inconceivable without nuclear power. For her, as a highly developed country, the absence of nuclear power would mean energy catastrophe. And nuclear power is not only the reactors, and questions the appeal of irradiated fuel in the reactors from which to separate plutonium. In any case, the discussions in Seoul about the need to join the nuclear club sound louder.

— What about Taiwan?

With it more difficult question. But one thing is clear: the Far East region is nuclear in our eyes. It was here in the 2000s were conducted nuclear tests, there was a way out of the contract to the NPT and nuclear problem in general is one of the main ones. The level of technological development here is different, but if you want any of the players actually able to get nuclear tool.

Including Taiwan. He was twice obliged to stop its nuclear program under pressure from the United States.

But it is possible that someday, despite the fierce resistance of China, he realizes it. Taiwan is not sufficiently recognized by whom a community. And since it is not a state like this, then signed him under the Contract on the Non-Proliferation should not be.

But the main limiting factor here is China. Special forces last vigilantly watching for those to want to make Taipei their nuclear weapon. Will reveal if that is so, then Beijing is ready for the most decisive act.

— You talk about the fact that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to possess nuclear weapon delay "the political scene." Could this be a situation makarom that over time they will not work?

— Yes, I fully admit this development. After all, we are currently looking into the East Asian permanent nuclear crisis. It should also be remembered that it is in this region for the first time was used nuclear tool, so many here clearly understand what it means to own it.

Again, the development of nuclear militarily held a number of South American security guarantees. But times have changed. If the same as Japan or South Korea will feel that the U.S. guarantee not so obvious, they can begin to fully develop its own nuclear weapons. And it is entirely possible that this will happen if vpribavok to all the strategic interests of these states will be subject to external threats.

Until now, the affairs of the DPRK with the outer world in almost all boiled down to the next: "You have to especially do not run (for opponents), otherwise we may reconsider their attitude to nuclear status." And in 2002, the DPRK, "ran across the Rubicon."

And I do not exclude that after some time, Tokyo can apply a similar blackmail against Washington to get any benefits and concessions. The formula of the ordinary, "Why do not you be a responsible reliable ally, otherwise we will still be one hundred percent guarantee for the safety of themselves." This is of course exaggerated, but the nature in general can be like that.

— The main destabilizing factor in the region, many experts call the possession of nuclear arsenal in North Korea. The situation in this country is uncertain. Some analysts do not rule out the possibility that the situation on the Korean peninsula could spiral out of control. What if the future of North Korea's nuclear arsenal?

For the neighbors of North Korea is really the nastiest question. Almost all will depend on how specific way will develop action in the Korean peninsula. There is the possibility that the North Korean regime will "pour" that the leadership of the DPRK will discord caused by a languid position. In this case, against North Korea and military intervention, likely because it creates a real danger that Pyongyang may lose control of its nuclear arsenal.

Or the other option: the threat of the coming to power of radicals that can cause their actions full-scale armed conflict. Or some non-nuclear opponents act DPRK Pyongyang able to coerce the introduction of nuclear weapons. But so far impossible to say exactly.

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