The main factor of impermanence Pakistan, is, surprisingly, the size of its population, which, according to some estimates, 200 million people have gained, by the way, almost 60 million more than in Russia. According to the forecast of the Global Bank, 2050 population this country could reach 335 million people. So high-spirited growth of the population is not resourced, it is like a snowball — the Pakistanis quickly younger, speeding reproduction. The main negative consequences of the baby boom is at the moment is to ensure high-quality drinking water to the population. Simply put, arid Pakistan simply not be able to drink its growing population, that inevitably will lead to social difficulties and contradictions, which, being a bit crowded due to the religious component, can lead to various kinds of conflicts, rebellions and coups, also give rise to internal migration wave, can upset the fragile stability of the country. The deterioration of water supply will inevitably entail a contradiction between the provinces Pakistan, threatening its decentralization and disintegration. Such criteria may be completely internal military conflicts, including the struggle for the possession of a nuclear arsenal, numbering, according to professionals, about 100 warheads.
According to the views of the Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, Alexander Khramchikhin that he expressed in a number of interviews to the media, because Pakistan is in almost all artificial state composed of several parts with strong separatist sentiments, the forthcoming aqua worsening difficulties will mean the collapse of the country and the start of war, civilian , which resulted in a number of regions will inevitably come to power Islamists.
What's all the same for the likely introduction of nuclear weapons, which could fall into the hands of Islamist recent constructive power, then there is the case for small — at the technical level to master its carriers to realize how to handle it. Hramchihin believes that as those in any other way will be made, the introduction of nuclear weapons could be waiting at any moment, since the Islamist terrorist moods alien moral constraints and terror response, including a nuclear strike. On the fanatics do not affect the optimal classical arguments, and negotiations with them at the moment, as you know, lead is not accepted.
A possible scenario of collapse Pakistan experts believe option that will stand out from the country areas inhabited by Pashtuns — is the north-western province Pakistan — And will begin their convergence with Afghanistan. This scenario is more possible when returning to power in Afghanistan adjacent movement "Taliban" that becomes increasingly likely due to the imminent departure of U.S. troops from there. And this development poses a threat to the stability of Central Asia. In strengthening of the Taliban in Afghanistan, they will once again be the likely expansion to the north, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and in Kyrgyzstan. And all this can happen just with a light hand Pakistan, more precisely, its central authority, which will encourage the Taliban claim to Central Asia, those seeking to protect themselves and preserve its territorial integrity. So, apparently, the region will be a very valued and complex future positive in what is seen less as a true nuclear Pakistan hope for the best does not add.