What are the terms of the non-recognition? What are the possible consequences? His answer to these questions is given by Mikhail Remizov, director of the Institute of National Strategy.
Remizov: The current aggressive information war may become a starting point in the strategy of non-recognition of the election results. How consistent will be held this strategy, I still can not say, but I do not rule out that at some point in Moscow stop. Stop, so the danger of throwing stones at the house of a crystal. After all, it is clear that this system of mutual recognition in the post-election is very important. All countries CIS are experiencing some problems with the legitimization of the election, and the CIS acts as a space of recognition. And if Moscow itself will break these bonds of reciprocity, it may come back to haunt her Russian elections.
Another thing is that the value of Russian recognition for Belarus more than Belarus recognition for Russia. It is really significant, but I do not think it is critical. In fact the head of state are on the lowest level. But relations system at the country level, societies and states still remain. I mean and the participation of Belarus in the Customs Union, and the preservation of certain basic civil rights under the state union — the possibilities of free movement, work, study. I hope it's not under any circumstances be questioned, and even the business interests of Belarusian enterprises in the Russian market, the business interests of their Russian partners. And even in the case of events on conflict scenarios of non-recognition of the election economic relations are not disrupted significantly. Russian enterprises are also dependent on the Belarusian-Russian relations, which depends on the dynamics of the Customs Union, and this significant international project for Moscow. In Russia there are serious limitations.
These platforms — economic, humanitarian and civil … eventually forget about the military-technical cooperation, which will not go away and is the densest in the CIS — if they persist, the recognition or non-recognition of the election will not be for Lukashenko fatal issue.