Two ribbons on the Russian channel this month with sharp criticism of Lukashenko — what is behind this? Who are the more they are designed — by the Belarusian or Russian audience? Can we expect further action from Moscow?
These and other topics in Prague to discuss the focus: from Minsk — editor in chief of the newspaper "Nasha Niva" Andrew Dynko, from Moscow — columnist "Komersant" Pavel Sheremet. The program is hosted Sergei Navumchyk.
Sheremet: "The appearance of such films can be regarded as a preparation for public opinion to any other steps in the political arena or in the economic sphere. First, people need to explain who the enemy is, and why it is so dangerous, then to calm people perceived any steps against the enemy … Moscow wants to weaken Lukashenko to could easy to get him to some steps …
However, I would not draw the conclusion that Moscow has a plan to change the political regime in Belarus. It is quite possible, and we watched it over and over again that it is a campaign of pressure, which has no shift of power to Lukashenko, and forced some of his actions as president. It is stored as president, he does not interfere with "triumphant" to win, but for that he in the Customs Union, a political union, a common political space makes concessions. So, to say that we are seeing the beginning of a large-scale operation in Moscow in Belarus — not.
I am absolutely convinced that both Putin and Medvedev understands that democratic means to change the power in Belarus is almost impossible — strong totalitarian regimes do not leave under pressure from voters. In this case, no one in Moscow thinks apply some methods of force against Belarus. This is not Georgia or Kyrgyzstan, the situation there under Shevardnadze and Akaev and Bakiev were extremely unstable, it states could dump a jerk. Belarusian state is different from when Shevardnadze of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan under Akayev and Bakiyev that it is solid, strong, that totally broke electorate, crushed, not active opposition. And if in Belarus will not have a powerful movement of liberation — of course, Moscow did not cross this border. If in Belarus will start any protest or appear strong candidates to win over a large part of the electorate, then of course, Moscow played along. Absolutely played along! And from those conversations with experts, which I had, Moscow now, by and large, do not care whether it's pro-Western candidate, or pro-Russian candidate. The main thing that it was a strong candidate, because everybody understands that the next President Lukashenko after the head of state will still be an intermediate figure. All the same, it will be someone who will hold power for long. And after the regime change occurs perakanfiguratsyya forces. And then there will be more open to interfere in this or that side, and financially, politically, and personnel. "
Listen to transfer to air on Sunday, 18, Minsk time. The full text of online freedom to read later.