The history of African countries is not as straightforward as it might seem at first glance. And far away is not always the rule of European colonialists meant for local residents undeniable negative. The fate of the black continent showed how fierce can be a person to his own brother. As a result, uneducated political game on the world map once we have yet another tremendous government — Sudan, under the wing of which were Muslims, and Christians. The conflict, which lasted several decades, claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.
The half-life of the country was only 55 years old.
July 9 this year, South Sudan seceded from the north's own brother after 20 years of war, and the world, this event was perceived very positively. Yes, this will end the bloodshed?
Calm before the storm?
Analysts and historians will remember the year 2011 as a time of revolutions. Many Terai lost power as a result of "African Spring" and the situation in a number of countries (Syria, Yemen) remains very tense. The fact is that there sang a powerful ideological conflict which fueling corruption, the gap in living standards, rising food prices. Principal, who particularly enjoyed the situation, but it is of course: many transformations have a directional vector.
South Sudan is rich in oil: its main raw material resources. The people who live here, in the main illiterate own weight. They are easy to manipulate, easy to suppress unrest. In addition, many people at the genetic level rebelled horror of violence that accompanied this area in decades. It is easy to guess that the base of the well-being of Northern Sudan — is petroleum refining. The black gold is mined in the main in the border areas.
Now the management of this country need to think how to safely get out of the situation. By the most conservative estimates, it can lose up to a third of its own national wealth. To pay these "savages" for what belongs to the "as of right"? This is another conflict situation that can put the two countries to the brink of war. Moreover, South Sudan will not envy: no oil ochlocracy not brought the country to a brighter future. You can recall and Iran, and Venezuela, and Libya.
What to expect from the future?
Despite the fact that many analysts call the main problem of the South and North Sudan different religions, it is a very superficial glance. And one, and the second part of the once naikrupneyshgo African countries will be obliged to go or the path of democratization, or on the way of strengthening the power. And the first and second option removes religion is not a lot of space. But the international dispute of strongest powers around this region can not be excluded. For the first time publicly about his own claims to "help" the newly formed government declared China.
Not enough people know that this country has is based firmly on the black continent. Here are some decent capital rich men of the east. Since this is the first serious experience of the Middle Kingdom in this region, it will make every effort to take South Sudan under its wing. To understand what this government Now, look at the pretty capital of Juba. No water, no sewage system, the difficulties with food, houses are in ruins. In other areas, the situation is even worse.
Khartoum, the capital of North Sudan, is very different from its southern neighbor. Here are accepted fundamental strategic decisions that will have an impact on the region. The territorial dispute is around a few border areas, which are particularly rich in black gold. A point is considered unsafe Abja, which already exchanged gunpowder "courtesies".
Specifically border areas represent a huge risk in terms of bloodshed. As happens in such cases, the local inhabitants of the prototype can be "unpleasant" as northerners and southerners. Disarming Abyu has long been calling for, but only 4 July 2011 agreement between the representatives of the North and the South was signed. When it enters into force — a simple question. Historical experience shows that specific territorial claims, heated religious divisions, represent an extraordinary threat to stability in the region.
The forces of the African Union, and international humanitarian organizations can strengthen its presence in the region. But it does not react Northern Sudan, who still hopes to select pieces of "fatter" in the new country. Principal, whose troops it will be: Ethiopia, the United Nations or other countries. They not only will not remove the voltage, and will add it. African tribes since time immemorial have entertained each other special love. Find mercenaries who have attacked the border areas, there is no trouble.
The fact that the capital of the newest country in Juba, on the proclamation of sovereignty attended an unlimited number of dignitaries, indicating interest in the region. And it's not only in the oil, and the geopolitical influence. Islamism more Kuta their networks Africa and sluggish fight goes into the latest phase. Many historians and sociologists have called the 21st Century Crusades time. This is partly confirmed by the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
Brand new point of tension, located in the heart of Africa, do not need Christians. And here is constructive Islamists are not averse to use the position to strengthen its impact.
What will happen with South Sudan in the coming decade?
Seize independence — not insignificant enough to live well. This can be said about virtually all the republics of the former Russian Union. Most of them are involved in a geopolitical orbit of, part — the United States and Europe, but none pursues an independent policy. South Sudan will face not only to Khartoum, and the rest of the world. China wants to economic expansion, giving their "best" loans in exchange for control over energy resources.
His semi-literate people, easy prey for the populists would rush between the various political parties and unions. Hard to support the pompous, life-affirming rhetoric of UN officials, who predict the future majestic country.