Leading financial idea has long shown the inadequacy of the neoclassical paradigm of real processes of economic development and the illusory nature of its underlying basis of axioms — from owning an absolute knowledge of homo economicus and finishing with a perfect konkurentnstyu. Economy never in a position to market equilibrium. Play of market forces endlessly generates new knowledge, skills and abilities that make economic nonequilibrium processes, uncertain and non-linear.
Sitting in the minds of some of our economic management departments set of traditional legends of favorite books on the economics of market equilibrium prevents them create real economic processes. Guided scholastic models imported into the theory of market equilibrium of the traditional mechanics of the last century, they are not able to recognize their own mistakes, replacing their analysis of the obvious arguments about the need for coagulation of municipal intervention in the economy, which, in their opinion, distorts market forces and prevents the attainment of the state equilibrium.
Toward building a mythological economy market equilibrium Russian government deprived itself of most of the supplies, capital and management skills development. But the sample of transition to evidence-based policy development, proven successful practices of many states are locked in a dominant interests of the Russian economy — including the interests of oligarchic business which extract excessive profits at the expense of its own monopoly position, natural and administrative rent. Rejects a transition to development policy and the corrupt part of the state apparatus, which is not lust to take responsibility for the implementation of projects of modernization of the economy, preferring to parasitize on the state monopoly.
Another influential force is not interested in the configurations is the international capital and its supporting Washington's financial interests of the organization. These interests are in the dismantling of barriers to interstate movement of international capital, fueled by vast emission of dollars and euros under increasing U.S. and European debt obligations.
Conduct monetary authorities monetary policy issue rubles increase in cash reserves for the abandonment of monetary control and sterilization budget in income meant subsidizing the U.S. monetary system through the Russian export earnings.
Export outside the hundreds of billions of dollars of savings at 2-3% per annum, Our homeland lure foreign capital by 7-8% per annum. But we almost change their earnings through exports of products longish cheap funds for expensive Short-term loans zabugornyh issue centers.
Russian monetary system, this policy cost the direct loss of 20-50 billion. dollars per year only on the difference in percent, is spent on the maintenance of U.S. monetary pyramids. It is logical that South American currency authorities were in ecstasy from that policy and tirelessly praised Minister spends her money, calling it the best in the world.
Riding the wave of growth
We often hear the question a lot of our country or not much? In fact, the focus should be on increasing its efficiency, as well as market mechanisms. We pay tribute not working properly neither one nor the other. As pointed out by the experience of developing countries, it is interrelated things. Without effective municipal regulation can not be a normal job market mechanisms — they are overgrown monopolies. On the contrary, without a healthy competitive environment municipal car gets stuck in corruption.
In such structural crises like today, when there is a change of technological structures, the country's role in stimulating the economy updates on the latest technology an indispensable basis. Market mechanisms in these periods are failing, because the usual direction of investment capital to make a profit and no longer breaks the mechanism of reproduction. The economy is depressed, and the money market and rush from one steady state to a turbulent — released if the capital is not stopping production finds its application, and is involved in a pyramid monetary speculation.
Out of the crisis on the latest wave of economic growth occurs during the formation of the new technological order, creating wonderfully new capabilities for the production and use, has repeatedly raised the efficiency of resource use. To ensure this, the formation of a powerful need the initiating pulse of the country because the depressed state of the economy and the turbulence on the financial markets covers the normal operation of market mechanisms of reproduction and is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the monetary, physical and human capital.
The scale of such a pulse the experience to overcome the global crises of this kind in the past. In the 1970s, the transition to a newcomer technological life was mediated by "Star Wars" and the depression of the 1930s had been overcome at the cost of the disaster the second World War.
The output of the current global crisis has also asked quite a massive effort to ensure the country's economic restructuring on the basis of the new technological order. Vladimir Putin indicated the priority sectors related to its core, which grows in the advanced countries, despite the crisis, with a rate of about 35% per year (clusters of nano-, bio-and information and communication technologies).
The concentration of resources required to implement these values, only the government can provide. And this must be done on a large scale and fast — those who had other saddles latest wave of economic growth, will become the favorites of this century.
To overcome the growing gap, we need to increase funding for the main areas of the formation of a new technological
structure in the 10's again. With all of this spending on science in general should grow three times, and the rate of accumulation — more than half — to 35-40% of GDP.
Loss of profit
Though what adekvatnomyslyaschemu and caring person it is clear that Russia is fundamentally important to break out of the commodity trap. There is no doubt: it will be very difficult — because the "window of opportunity" open occasionally, usually when changing technological structures.
In oligarchic structures that occupy a monopoly position on the market, and in the reception party of power, there are no incentives for the introduction of new equipment and technology, training of personnel, expansion of scientific and technological research. Extracting profits from its own monopoly position and disposition of state-owned mineral resources, they are not "steamed" the development of new technologies.
Even in the most prosperous oil industry company turned private expenditure on research in geological, engineering handed South American firms produced in Russia began to buy equipment abroad. Labour productivity in the oil industry is three times lower than it was 20 years ago in the Russian time. But the leaders of the privatized companies have got the army servants, personal jets and posh palaces.
Samples of the transition to evidence-based policy development are blocked dominant in Russian economy interests? — Including the interests of oligarchic business that extracts super-profits at the expense of its own monopoly position, natural and administrative rent.
In the meantime, massively exporting raw materials and as much volume buying high-tech products, we import almost inflation. When we sell the oil and get the aircraft, we lose our natural non-reproducibility of the rent, the rent exchanging it mentally.
Our zabugornye partners who sell us planes through us get excess profits realized in the upcoming build their own scientific and technological advantages. Since mental rent, as opposed to natural, not just playing, she grows all the time.
On the world market Our homeland is playing the role of donor money. Direct loss of the monetary system of of "curly economy" is 20-50 billion dollars a year. And if you take into account the loss of earnings, the harm caused to pull half a trillion dollars.
What is the loss of revenue?
Investments in new production facilities, which were not located in Russia. Projects unrealized due to lack of funds. The roads that were not built, scientific development, remaining on the stage of research. Under-funding of expenditure on science, education and health care, the share in GDP of in the two to three times less than the global average, and three to four times lower than in advanced countries.
The Philosopher's Stone Economy
The secret of modern economic growth — this is knowledge. They can be likened to the philosophers' stone in the economy — they enable the endless self-replicating economic growth in the welfare and quality of life of the population.
Scientific and technological progress now provides the bulk of growth in gross domestic product advanced countries — on econometric models above 90%. But the introduction of knowledge asks some effort, they receive value only within a specific technology implementation.
Although knowledge does not disappear, they are rapidly becoming obsolete — at the present rate of STP cessation research involves impairment of knowledge by 20-25% per year. With all this amount of knowledge available to the world's population is multiplied every 20 years.
Conducted in post-Soviet Russian Federation Fiscal policy ignored the knowledge economy. The reforms were accompanied by dramatic loss of accumulated knowledge. Privatization campaign led to the virtual elimination of applied science, and more than ten-fold reduction in R & D spending in the 1990s led to a corresponding depreciation of the existing knowledge of the supplies in the country.
The surviving part of the mental capacity can still count on success in building a modern economy, subject to appropriate laws and marked features of the economy of knowledge, systematic and targeted policies. But Innovative Activity Russian companies for many years stuck at 10% level, and the fraction of our products in the global high-tech market fell to a difficult-to-value of 0.2%.
The more a country of new knowledge, the more she uses them, the more they added them, as opposed to the material and the real reason — for example wood or metals that are lost in the process.
Speak out like this: selling a product, you lose it. And when selling new knowledge, materialized in a product, it just add on to themselves. Because new knowledge — a "philosopher's stone" for the economy, they generate sustainable economic growth.
Countries that specialize in high-end products, getting this mental rent, using it for their own gain competitive advantage. On the contrary — the countries with the scope hawking their bowels, give virtually unplayable wealth, which later will be impossible to get anew. No amount of money! Once these countries are importing products containing mental rent, which, as noted above, is equivalent to importing inflation.
In other words, we change the resource rents for inflation, excess profits, and that is abroad! This obviously unequal exchange is, in fact, to the colonial binding, to a vulnerable, dependent on the position of the world. That, by the way, the crisis has demonstrated, in which our homeland in terms of economic activity, in terms of industrial production lost very many. And, I note, is much more relative to other states. And that's a fact!
Fully real scientific and technological advantages that our country possessed the beginning of economic reforms of the 1990s have not been implemented. But socialist China, which began to implement market transformation at about the same time as our homeland, "went too far ahead." For investments in fixed assets, we have not reached the level of 1990.
The main reason for such a painful gap — in the most coarse mistakes made in the system of municipal governance. These should include the inadequacy lay in shock reforms based ideology that had to do with the economic interests of the major groups of influence, and not to the development needs of the country, the criminalization of the elite oligarchy merging with transnational capital.
When the "fall" oil …
Predatory, anti-people privatization of the 1990s of the last century refutes the thesis favorite of liberals that private property is always managed efficiently than municipal. All is depending on how it was obtained. If the company was privatized by means of bribing officials repeatedly undervalued, the motives of its legal development in the new owners do not appear. Specifically in this way we have the privatization.
Many industrial facilities, including sverhtehnologichny production remained exclusively in the public sector, and almost all the privatized engineering offices, research universities and engineering factories were looted by the new owners, and re-re-sold and are in the form of real estate. In Russia, there was no state capitalism, has been criticized as many trusting professionals and oligarchic neofeudalism.
Export outside the hundreds of billions of dollars of savings under 2 ≥ 3% per annum, Our homeland lure foreign capital by 7? 8?% Per annum. But we are changing their earnings through exports of products cheaper means for expensive Short term loans zabugornyh issue centers.
The central bank was not working as an effective mechanism for lending to the real economy, as a mechanism that is taken out of her financial resources, sekvestiruya sverhizbytochnuyu, from his point of view, the monetary mass. In the end, then the economic policy pursued export-oriented, the main raw material, the sector for the years 1990-2009 has tripled. We are not saved by either the defense or the hugest number of scientists in the world, no oil money.
Of course, that our homeland must invest in knowledge-intensive sectors, where we still have some dignity, to lift the economy. Russian scientific school still keeps excellent forefront in the field of genetic engineering and molecular biology for some fronts. Rocket and Space Complex, and aircraft — two more branches bearing the direction of the new technological order.
The first who comes to the latest technology line movement, it comes cheaper than all the others. This theorem, and she does not ask for proof. Investing in these cutting-edge areas that grow faster in times of everything else, we can really take out and the whole Russian economy. If the Russian Federation will not do it in most coming years, the country has no chance of keeping the already not very highest standard of living and level of economic activity.
In the brand-new technological way of our current technological advantages compressed. This new way of life at times more energy efficient, because oil and gas in quantities over 10 years spalivat will not be — will eventually demand will fall, and together with it will fall down and prices.
Clever issue ruble
In addition to the development of a new way of economic development of the country to use an experienced and clever emission rate. What is being done at all! The situation is so makarom that we issue in recent years was
motivated way to purchase foreign currency. By the way, this model is the first time the West has been tested in the colonial countries. As a result, there is an over-reliance on foreign means of payment … And the main recipient of currency in Russia is the Russian energy sector.
Correct actually target long-term development of the Concept of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 sprawl with real economic policy. As an example, the first acts of the government to minimize the aftermath of the global financial crisis — this selection above 1st trillion rubles (more than 25% of GDP) to support the Russian banking system.
And after all that? ..
Banks on the business earned 200 billion rubles, placing our facilities abroad. With all of this interest rate loans to Russian companies for the manufacturing industry are not significantly reduced. In this situation, calls to build Innovative economy is "outrageous voice in the wilderness."
The Ministry of the Russian Federation of money involved in the wrong business. Lend to creditworthy businesses should the Central Bank through commercial banks. Means, in turn, do not need to print a currency, and a bill of successful companies. In turn, these companies should lend a very small percentage. So did in his time in Germany. So was restored post-war Europe?
You can not say that the authorities do not decide anything. Political impulses are, programs are accepted, but excited and now there. The first thing to do — to overcome the unavailability of loans for the first of the real sector of the economy. In the meantime, access to expensive cash resources have, as already noted, the only natural resource industries.
The core of the new way of life
Yes, get out, get out of the trap of raw materials will be very hard. As I noted above, the "window of opportunity" open occasionally — usually when changing technological paradigms, and not on "technological wave."
These "windows" was only 6. Current opportunity we have to use a different forever remain on the periphery of the world economy. "The cost of entry" increases every year. In 1997, for the creation of a nanofactories required 100 million dollars, in 2010 — already 400.
Form the core of a new, sixth technological structure rising from an average rate of 30% per year. Specifically, its industry (nanoelectronics, nanophotonics and molecular, nanomaterials, nanobiotechnology, and others) can pull our economy on the latest wave of growth. But it is not enough to set the right goals, specify them in the task — you need to provide a clear mechanism for implementation of the proposed measures on the basis of strategic planning and management.
To overcome the growing gap, we need to increase funding for the main areas of the formation of the new technological order in the 10's again. With all of this spending on science in general should grow three times, and the rate of accumulation — more than half — to 35-40% of GDP.
Be aware that in overcoming the structural crisis fundamentally time to manufacture the new technological order. Those who do it in the initial phase of its development, obtain profit, investing in all these little tools and creating the latest wave of growth. Those who are late, encounters already made barriers to overcome that require huge amounts of money without guarantees merits of technological advantages.
The global crisis creates a "window of opportunity" for a technological breakthrough. The decision requests the objectives of mobilizing all available resources for priority development. With all of this particular bit of increase in their benchmarks sverhtehnologichny production in half, double the growth of labor productivity, real wages increased 1.6-1.7 times should be regarded as the minimum program.
If we choose the right values and make financial and industrial mechanism for their implementation, aimed at advancing the formation of a new technological order, you have time to ride the wave of economic growth. And if you can bring the Russian economy on a trajectory of sustainable economic recovery at a rate of more than 8% GDP growth per year.
Truth and justice
Bimbo's economy is built on the creativity of people. To be creative and constructive, it must be suitably arranged and include a huge number of necessary parts and devices. The decision of the tasks no ordinary resolutions.
Namely, the naive hope of miraculous privatization — the whole Russian experience of the 1990s. Many privatized industrial businesses were looted and resold already in the form of real estate. This, again, is the reason Straseni degradation and de-industrialization of Russian economy.
High-tech production remained exclusively in the public sector, almost all the privatized engineering offices, research universities and engineering factories were new owners redeveloped in warehouses or other properties.
Vladimir Putin in these criteria made the only right decision to build a large vertically integrated state-owned corporations and industrial holdings, gathered in their prihvatizatsionnogo left after the defeat of viable enterprises and research teams in order to maintain production and intellectual potential. He rightly says that in these sectors the personal initiative just was not — corporation made in the sectors of high technology industry with a global oligopolistic konkurentnstyu.
It now has to go, first, to increase the efficiency of their work, why not privatization, and clear requirements for their manager, who should be responsible for the results of their own activities. This, in turn, asks transparency and a clear system performance, accountability, and competition between managers for the best services. All this is impossible without a system of strategic planning.
In turn, for the modernization of private sector funds needed longish. Needed for economic modernization of their volume, but can not be obtained only on the basis of personal savings. In our conditions, when all the assets of Russian banks do not exceed the size of the assets of the 1st large South American or Japanese bank, private sector is not able to provide economic modernization investments. Especially since most of it has to pull out of offshore quagmire.
No upcoming frisky build municipal capacity development institutions will not lead to the desired vkladyvatelnuyu activity for the restructuring and modernization of the economy level. As well as without the active use of the mechanism of refinancing by the Central Bank to commercial banks against payment of duties manufacturing companies fail to form vsepolnotsennuyu banking, financial and investment system.
Because of the structural features of the new technological order, the government is bound to play a leading role in its formation and development. Its main bearing industry — science, education and health care — at least half must be funded by the state impartially. The role of the state to support Innovative activity is growing and the corporate sector, whose investments in intellectual assets in advanced countries exceed 10% of GDP.
According to OECD estimates, the growth of municipal appropriations for R & D at a rate of 1% 0.85% increases the possibility of luck innovation and a 0.7% increase the share of new products in turnover. So Makar, the government directly or indirectly, has a decisive influence on the formation and development of more than half of the economic activity.
The value of the country in building a modern economy can not be reduced to quantitative traits of municipal expenditures or accessories. Even more important is the quality of the municipal government. It must meet the requirements of the economy of knowledge, among which — the creative approach and creative thinking, commitment to continuous innovation, knowledge of information technology. And, most importantly, it must specify a
scale befitting the economy of knowledge and forms the moral values in the public consciousness of their means of education and culture.
Key in this scale are relevant to our culture values primacy of the spiritual over the real, zeal for truth and justice, social responsibility and patriotism, collective creative work and personal responsibility, that give us a significant comparative advantages in building the knowledge economy. The latter is the basis for the modern economy, the need for the construction of which reads as head of the country.
The success of this construction is determined by the new thinking, free from mythology libertarian dogma, based on scientific knowledge about the laws of contemporary socio-economic development and the clear awareness of our ability to advance development in the criteria of the growing global variable.