Site "Russian news service" stunned us a
Naturally, such a interesting news confidently and readily taken up by hundreds of sites and reproduced in thousands of "posts". And without it, the Internet and media crowded alarmist arguments about the hopelessness of our demographics, our predictions about the "extinction", etc. Such background information if specially aimed at trying to make predictions evil reality. No, not for nothing that the ROC ranks as factors that reduce fertility, "congestion of negative information that creates a disturbing and depressing atmosphere in society that causes chronic stress."
I can not shake the feeling «deja vu». Such a run-up took place a few years ago. In 2005, Professor A.A.Neschadin, Deputy. general director of the Expert Institute, said that "Russia's population could fall by 2010 (for a total of five years! — AG) to 94 million people." A year later, he also insisted that "the decline in the population and the changing geography (! — AG) Russia — this is the reality in which we will live in the near future. And no need to discuss how to reverse the demographic situation, and how to adapt to it, "and that, in principle, one should be alert to the emergence of Chinatown in Moscow. Then another major expert on the issue, A.G.Vishnevsky made in "Izvestia" article, "The decline in fertility — it is a way of self-preservation." Do not even want to continue.
Let's start with the fact that no one knows how many people in Russia. But it is known how much it mobile subscribers, more than 230 million (it is only about active rooms, and not some long unused; those removed from the register for 3-6 months, depending on the operator, and sold again ). Just published the poll by the Levada Center, dedicated to mobile communications. It turned out that do not have "mobile phone" 9% of the respondents (interviewed, of course, only adults), 65% have one, two — 17%, three or even more — 8% could not answer one percent.
If Russia really 143 million people, separate the 9,000,000 babies and toddlers up to 6 years of age, inclusive, of the remaining 134 million will exclude another 9% (12 million), said he did not have the "tube". Were 122 million should also exclude residents of areas not covered by mobile communication, it is further reduced to the desired number, but the necessary data are not available. 65% of the 122 million users have one machine, it takes away 79 million from 122 million, the remaining 43 million, of which almost 21 million (17% of 122) have two telephones, and a total of 42 million units. 79 + 42 = 121 million numbers.
And who are the other 109 million numbers? In the remaining 9.76 million people (8% of the 122 million)? It just can not be. Even if the members of this group are in different pockets of five tubes average (prohibitive hypothesis), we scrape together 50 million numbers. And the other 59 million?
Someone is wrong — or Rosstat, or a mobile phone company. We pose the question: who has more faith? Federal State Statistics Service said as best he can, and the companies exact statistics, it can be traced back over the last 20 years, literally by month.
Even making all possible assumptions and reservations, see no other choice but to assume that the true population of Russia million (minimum!) to 40 more than the totals Statistics. So, we all offered demographic projections, estimates of labor, working-age population, etc., all dark and malevolent predictions are not unfounded.
But the question is: where did the "extra" people? One can assume that after the last Soviet census of 1989 in Russia from the former Soviet Union moved in, settled, and even partly acquired the citizenship of a lot more people than it should from the current account. At various times, even officials stated that there are 10, 15 and even 20 million illegal immigrants. And how many legitimate, but unaccounted for? In discussing the results of the 2002 census, the director of the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Tishkov said about seven percent of the undercount. That is, was not taken into account 100, and 93% of the population mean, then escaped from the census 10,900,000 people. And how many in 2010? Motives to evade the census were and are at the mass of people. For example, many believe that the purpose of the event — setting them on another public accounting with an unknown purpose, and they do not convince.
Evidence that we are considered bad pop up constantly. In November 2004, during the preparation of the register of beneficiaries suddenly found that their 3 million more. It was believed (and was included in the budget), which put 12,269 compensation to thousands of beneficiaries, but before the end of the calculations revealed that the number has exceeded 15 million. Missed a dispensation — and could miss the other categories.
In the same year, the Minister of Regional Development Vladimir Yakovlev predicted: "Dozhivshim to 2010 young Russians to go to college will not have to pay a bribe — a competition in five years safely reduced to one person on the spot." As we know, this did not happen.
Talk about "high mortality of Russians," the "Russian Cross" generated flaws current population. This distorts account primarily mortality statistics. It contains all died within Russia — as the number of its citizens, as well as among the "hidden population." All they replenish Russian mortality statistics.
The act provides for the death of the Count "residence", but in the future scheme of registration of deaths and processing this information is not encrypted and is not taken into account that warps all indicators of Russia's demographic ("News", 05/15/2003). Ten years later, the accounting system of mortality in Russia is the same.
Let's look at the problem more broadly
Assurances that Russia is dying out, the bottom line, they are reducible to five theses:
— Russia catastrophically nedonaselena;
— Compared to the Soviet era, Russia's population declined by 14 million (variants: 17 million, 21 million), and continues to fall at a rate 1.7% per year, one million per year, etc. (Go to different numbers);
— Just over 12 years, the number of working age fell by 12 million (there are other fantastic figures), now in Russia there is no one to work;
— People here do not live to retirement, but Russia will soon become a strange old man (take it or leave it);
— If anyone would save Russia, migrants, no one else.
The authors of these texts are divided into groups. The first is formed by people sincere, passionate, impressionable, civic, trusting, apocalyptic mood — though badly owning question.
Motives for the second group of carefully hidden, but visible. This is either targeted lobbying
delivery cheap labor (read: the shadow economy), or neuro-linguistic processing audience in order to inspire her defeatism and paralyze the spirit of the nation, accustomed to the idea that Russia is doomed in the long run. In the role of the authors of the second group often act smart people who know how to leave an impression of scholarship, and that in fact scientists.
Stand out import texts — usually zero cognitive value, but it does not bother publishers. The main thing that digging at one point: "Russian extinct" ("Süddeutsche Zeitung", Germany), "Russian will soon run out" ("Wall Street Journal", USA), "Death to Russia" ("Wprost", Poland), "Dying Russia "(ibid.)," When will disappear Russia? "(TV channel" 24 ", Poland)," whether Russia will die? "(" Der Standard ", Austria), etc. Even in the headlines is easy to see children's hope that a miracle will happen, nasty Russian go away somewhere — and then comes the Polish (American, German, etc.) happiness.
Finally, there are texts that supply chain freshman in journalism vocational school, ready for tiny money to illuminate any question. These cheat, do not zamorachivayas, everyone.
Such materials are wide — from hysterical to gloating — in quivering response Lesbian lend themselves to numerous talk shows. They are pathetically ignorant people will necessarily assure each other that Russia has the lowest population density in the world, and a representative of the business community will certainly state that without guest workers in Russia extinguished not only small and medium-sized businesses, but in general, every production.
Japan has 127 million people, the economy in 2012, one and a half times (4.494 trillion and $ 3.380 trillion respectively, at purchasing power parity) exceeded our — at least the "white". In this case, the age structure of the population significantly worse — the higher the proportion of the elderly, the proportion of lower fertility rate than Russian, but the way migrants into the country closed. And the cost. As soon as this remind sounds objection: if we had such productivity, as in Japan, and we have treated. So: Russia will not stop until the download of immigrants, it does not reach the Japanese labor productivity.
A few facts
Fact one. In countries with a much lower population density than ours (Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Iceland, Mongolia, Libya, etc.), no one is beating about in hysterics.
Fact two. The population of Russia has never been particularly impressive. In 1639, when Russian first came to the Pacific and has built major Siberian cities, the entire population of Russia amounted to 7.8 million people. A hundred or so years later, when Queen Elizabeth, in Russia itself (ie, without the territories now belonging to other States) lived just only 15 million people. 50 millionth mark of the number of its residents reached only by 1870, the 70 millionth crossed the entering into of the twentieth century. In the Russian Federation, this figure varied as follows: in 1926, on the threshold of industrialization, it was 93 million, after the Second World War, 97 million, in the year of Gagarin's flight 119 million. And got along!
The fact of the third. Statistics (believe it at this time) does not confirm "depopulation of the village" for the post-Soviet era. As for the "abandoned villages", they were thrown between the 1920s to the 1970s, when the proportion of the rural population in the USSR fell from 80% to 30%. Since 1980, this share has decreased slightly from 30% to 27%.
Output. In the coming years, the workforce we have enough. Enough to continue, especially if the raise productivity.
How to ensure the steady growth of the population? First of all, you need to treat infertility at public expense (which is about the very government decision: to treat infertility on the insurance policy).
Reform is needed, "maternity capital": it must greatly increase and the issue of third child — not for the 1st, not for the 2nd and, importantly, not at the 4th (this truncated alcoholics and other anti-social element capable of make childbearing fishing, but of course no one is forbidden to have any number of children).
Finally, you need massive single family construction. Depressive sleeping areas, these nests of gray concrete, it is the same at all latitudes of the immense Soviet Union, were the pride of the Soviet leadership. The trouble, however, is that the apartment they were designed as if specially so that the appearance of even one child gave rise to a maximum of inconveniences and difficulties. Today, thanks to mass motorization (another achievement of the new Russia!), At least a third of our citizens would willingly moved from oppressive paneled tower blocks "on the ground" in his house. Against residential areas, where people are not drawn to the breed, long advocated psychologists, demographers, doctors, teachers. The fact that these areas, despite everything, continue to build, can be explained only by the inertia of the Soviet legacy in the Russian construction sector and in the minds of its leaders.
And there will be happiness to our detractors.