On these and other issues in the transmission of "Examination of Freedom" meet analyst Yuri Chausov and political columnist for "Belarusians and Market" Pavljuk Bykovskii.
Tsigankov: Why the Belarusian authorities, despite the negative reaction from the West, continue to issue tough sentences participants Square? That the power of these sentences to say, to demonstrate to society? What lessons, in her opinion, should learn the activists of the democratic parties and citizens in general?
Bykovskii: There are a set of goals that can be achieved in this way. On the one hand, the "saving face." After all, just let these people have called almost terrorists impossible for the authorities. On the other hand, if you have a relationship with Europe and beyond, you have to concede something. And here we return again to the issue of "political prisoners trade" — to improve conditions of detention or release. And, perhaps, even here there is such a factor as the fight between the security forces for influence.
Chausov: The functions of this sentence — the same as in criminal convictions. First, the "educational", to prevent the behavior of people in this direction. Second, to demonstrate the inevitability of punishment, cruelty, punishment. And in general — in the future to prevent such a development, area, street democracy.
Of course, these political processes. These people, politicians are seen as criminals who set sights on state power. In Belarus, there is no independent court, so the court is valid in the logic of maintaining the current system. Sentences, of course, prescribed in advance, they will determine the political behavior of the defendants. And it fits into that strategy, which was justified by the government on the eve of December 19. A large number of political prisoners has already been predetermined at the time when the script is started mass dispersal.
In general, it should be stated that as a result of the election in Belarus, the political regime changed — to a more rigid. From this it is necessary to proceed by analyzing current events.
Tsigankov: When we talk about "trade political prisoners", then it is worth recalling the famous English saying "takes two to tango." Be sure to play by the rules of the West, which imposes the official Minsk?
ChausovYes, now is the popular word — devaluation. Devalued and that the "capital" of political prisoners who have allegedly Lukashenko was and how he was going to start bargaining with the West. It seems that Europe does not want to go to the next stage of the policy of "we're releasing another, and for that you give us credit," and so on. I think the Western politicians have a personal insult that drives them to Minsk this shameful wheel.
I think the West is not yet used all the levers to this humiliating break the circle. I would place the Lukashenka analysts listened very carefully to the words of the imposition of economic sanctions. After all, they already sound not only in statements of MEPs, but also on the executive authorities of the EU. In this case we are talking about sanctions even more radical than those already used the United States.
Therefore, when trade and will, it will not go by the rules of Lukashenko. Is the condition of the release of all political prisoners and their full rehabilitation. At this Lukashenko is not ready to go.
At present, verdicts are due primarily to domestic political factors. Authorities are trying to design the opposition, to build it for what they need. They need it is weak, confused, divided between those who are behind bars, and those whom will be labeled "constructive." Thus, the cruel sentences authorities want to make yourself comfortable for the configuration of the opposition forces in the period of unfavorable economic conditions and unfavorable attitudes in the society.
Tsigankov: As the official Minsk, in your opinion, to give advice assumes a negative reaction in Europe to these actions? Is the leadership of Belarus does not understand that the new sentences entail new EU action? Or it is not so important now? Or is he just does not believe that Europe is ready to go to the official sanction?
Bykovskii: In my opinion, the official Minsk continues to believe that the West is always a partner with whom you can negotiate. Among Western politicians have those who believe that Lukashenko is impossible to conduct interviews, and those who believe that we can and need to negotiate because there is a goal — the liberation of specific people. And since the West — is not a monolith and there are politicians with different influences and different opinions, there is a possibility always find someone with whom to enter into negotiations.
Another thing that is really going devaluation of the shelf on which lay a formal Belarus. It is not seen by many politicians as a European country, where there can be no political prisoners. They are already used to that in Belarus there is a non-European regime.
Therefore the trade itself has to go on the Belarusian side is not understandable rules. After all, managers themselves Belarus still see themselves in a very different situation from the one in which they actually got after December 19.
Chausov: Pavljuk said a very important thing, to use the term, is different from the one used previously. So, no one speaks of a "dialogue" with the Belarusian regime, talk about the "negotiations". And, perhaps, this is the only way to secure the release of political prisoners and some improvements in Belarus.