Triangle Belarus-Russia-Georgia: Who bought who lost?



Cyril Pozniak

Valery Karbalevich

Why Lukashenko friendship with Saakashvili?

Valery Karbalevich"July 12, a meeting of Alexander Lukashenko and Mikhail Saakashvili, and on July 15 the Belarusian TV showed an interview with the president of Georgia, where he criticized Russia and Belarus protected from the pressures of Moscow. Why it took the Belarusian authorities? Economic relations between Belarus and Georgia are low. No geopolitical benefits of friendship with Tbilisi Minsk does not seem to get it. It follows that it is a symbolic move in the confrontation with Russia, and nothing more? "

Kalinkina"Statistics give unexpected performance. Among the CIS countries, Georgia ranks third in trade with Belarus after Russia and Ukraine.

Lukashenko at the meeting with Saakashvili and the last interview on BT there is not much political intrigue. The Belarusian leader forced to explain to their constituents why it conflicts with Russia, which he announced another major. "

Cyril Pozniak"This is part of the information war with Russia. Thus Minsk wants to stab the Kremlin. Here today NTV shows new movie "Godfather 2". And Minsk responds adequately.

But at the same time — it's part of the election campaign Lukashenko. He seeks to find support for the Belarusian society on the basis of the image of the state independence. "

How will this impact on the Belarusian-Russian relations?

Karbalevich"It's no secret that there is still Lukashenko — a rather popular politician among, say, chauvinistic part of Russian society, including Russian security forces. And it is to these people constantly appeals Belarusian leader during the conflict with the Russian leadership. But this is the part of Russian society perceives Saakashvili as the main enemy of Russia. Lukashenko knows it all. The current friendship with Tbilisi — a challenge not only the mismanagement of Russia, it is a challenge to Russian society. It turns out that he becomes a Rubicon, destroys their last foothold in Russia. What does this mean? "

Kalinkina"Lukashenko wants to show that its current anti-Russian steps internally, it steps back. Will continue this dichotomy with the leaders of public opinion, and Belarus, and Russia.

Now the task number one for Lukashenko — a struggle not for Russia, and for the Belarusian electorate. Therefore, the support of the Russians, and you can donate.

I recall that back in 2007, a meeting with Lukashenko Georgian Interior Minister Merabishvili. The president of Belarus said that draws a line under a period of chaos in the relations between the two countries. Since contacts between officials of Georgia and Belarus became more dense. "

Pozniak"The challenge now number 1 for Lukashenko — a struggle not for Russia, and for the Belarusian electorate. Therefore, the support of the Russians, and you can donate.

In addition, Lukashenko is trying to play on the contradictions in Russian society and among the elites of Russia. Indeed, in Russia rises wave of dissent against the government. And Lukashenko is trying to be in the form of opposition to Putin and Medvedev, in the image of a politician who does not obey, is not afraid of the Kremlin. And because of this he can get the support and in Belarus, and among the opposition of the Russian electorate, and the West. "

How to accept friendship with Georgia Belarusian society?

Karbalevich"Both of my interlocutors pointed out that such steps Lukashenko primarily appeals to the Belarusian electorate. But for a long time, the Belarusian propaganda Saakashvili served as the chief enemy of the Belarusian people, puppets U.S.. Ostensibly it is the job of Washington made a "color revolution" in Georgia, and then tried to organize a similar revolution in Belarus. You may recall that, according to the KGB, that Georgian militants along with the Belarusian opposition wanted to poison the water supply Minsk rats. The negative image of Saakashvili further intensified during the Russian-Georgian war. Public opinion in Belarus was in the conflict on the side of Russia, and by a wide margin, according to the independent sociologists. Worse Saakashvili Belarusian propaganda represented only U.S. President Bush. And now this enemy Saakashvili seems almost like a friend of Belarus, now we are friends together against Russia, which has become the main enemy. How to accept such a radical turn Belarusian public opinion, especially the electorate Lukashenko? "

Kalinkina"Really, now BT Saakashvili presented as the leader of the Georgian revolution. That is what used to be bad, it is now well. I think that the majority of Belarusians would be some confusion. Some will conclude on unscrupulousness of the Belarusian leadership.

Many Belarusians supported Lukashenko because he ensured good relations with Russia. Now part of the electorate to lose the president of Belarus. Therefore, it tends to catch the opposition electorate.

By the way, two years later, Saakashvili resigns as president of Georgia. And there maybe a Ukrainian scenario. That is, can come to power politician, more loyal to Russia. The result is a line of official Minsk may be a dead end. Therefore, the current focus on the steps of Belarus a short time. "

Karbalevich"That's about the unscrupulousness of Lukashenko. During the events of the Kyrgyz state media Belarus stressed that despite the lack of principle leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, the United States is the only one who has taken a principled stand was just Lukashenko. "

Pozniak"All of us have read Orwell's novel" 1984. " The described methods of propaganda out there more and more like the current Belarusian. As for the population, it is sure to politics — it's a thing that you can twist, twirl. I do not think people would be outraged by unscrupulous Lukashenko.

The more that Lukashenko maintains the image of independence. And it might work, even compensate for the deterioration of the material well-being. Even among the democratic public there is a problem, which some stated as follows: the best independent Belarus, albeit with Lukashenko. "

Kalinkina"Many Belarusians supported Lukashenko because he ensured good relations with Russia. Now part of the electorate to lose the president of Belarus. So now he's trying to catch the electorate of the opposition, creating the image of the defense of sovereignty. And that Lukashenko unprincipled man. "


power, propaganda

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