Since then the company when this idea sounded, it took almost 20 years, the Belarusian authorities are now quarreling with Moscow, which once reported, was not it more stubbornly and persistently than with other foreign "enemies." However, the remark Adamovich can suddenly be very relevant in the current Belarusian situation.
Until recently, for all the quarrels between Minsk and Moscow, Russia still considers Belarus and Lukashenko personally, as an ally, and also a variety of financial support has always recognized the right of the Belarusian leader to power. Since the confession was absolutely certain and indisputable, and it was not clear what it is — to what extent the power of the Belarusian leader on this recognition is based. But it is possible that the next presidential election will test it.
Moscow and rat general Sukharenka
In the debates and discussions of how atbehaves Moscow in this election, is sometimes suggested that it is not clear how it can practically affect them. A significant alternative, at least at the same time visible and acceptable to Moscow, something not seen, the whole system of government tightly controlled the incumbent president, the mood of resistance and continuous hunger is not observed either.
Of course, no shortage of conspiratorial scenarios with Russian money bags which do not give sleep "well-wishers" "Tell the Truth," "fifth column" in Moscow's power structures, even with Russian snipers and special department of the GRU, which pratochvayutstsa in Belarus and find themselves at the right time in the right place. But such a view of politics as a special operation, pleases one of the Knights of computer "Claudia" who have been reading spy novels, but local security officers. The first discussion of such conspiratorial scenario brings pure enjoyment and confidence in his intellectual power, the second — and even the stars on the shoulder straps when their analysts bosses they set out plans to neutralize these horrors. In short, the rat Stepan Sukharenko alive and well.
In fact, everything is easier. And more complicated. And the corresponding line, the script was voiced and discussed both in opposition and in government circles. There will be no sabotage or a "fifth column" or other conspiratorially, "scary." Collusion, by the way, those security officers at least know how to fight. Well, to say that there is no money, is not necessary, but not in them under this scenario happiness. And just to be Moscow's silence after the election. And the next day, and the day after that. And a week later. So what? And maybe that's all.
Rehearsal: Zimouski against Piatkevich
The fact that the elections in Belarus — a rather peculiar institution. For opponents of the authorities — is a continuous farce and fraud, but also for its supporters — a ritual of asserting the right of government (which is actually the only one) and then be in power. Should be any promises and statements, polls, walking on them, throwing the ballot boxes, the final report of Lydia Yarmoshina. And maybe something else?
An interesting rehearsal, a model of what can happen was a public spat between the Chairman of BTRC Zimouski Alexander and the first deputy head of presidential administration Natalya Piatkevich. Zimouski in his blog on the "Belarusian News" and other publications, without naming names, said that ideological work — a complete failure, and some of his fellow presidential stupid boss is fed by the monastery. Explain that this quarrel is and how to understand, Lukashenko had even in his annual address. Why? And because of this dysfunction was a shock to its elements — the bureaucracy by equal scratches his head and wondered what was going on, and for whom Lukashenko and anyone at all should obey. Shock small, locally, but illustration of how the mechanism of shock.
The loud silence of Moscow
And that election. Area. Not necessarily, by the way, is very high. And Moscow's silence. And much more oppressive than during an argument with Zimouski Pyatkevich chuhanne neck tens of thousands of officials (without shoulder straps and shoulder straps, by the way), what it is and how it must be understood. Elections … Well, what a fool perceive them as elections? It is a ritual. And in this situation it would be violated. And the doubt, the fear that "the king is not real," do not dwell in the minds of the opposition, to cope with it no problem, but in completely different heads. You can catch and neutralize any secret conspiracy, and how to deal with a public conspiracy, collusion, which involves all? And even the voice of uncrowded area that the king did nesaparavdny can suddenly hear too many. Hear, hear because in their own way and on his own.
And the power of the area will increase by tens and hundreds of times, feeding these fears and doubts. And no sniper, rats in a bucket and similar whim.
Already had one day to write about the concept of combinatorial weapon that destroys not a direct influence, and self-destructive processes running in the object of attack. However, in this situation, the area is part of the mechanism, which is run Moscow. Well, yes. Here are some of the readers were outraged stating the question in my recent delivery "For Lukashenko or Moscow," they say, should be for Belarus. Well, hard to argue. Also much better to be healthy and rich than poor and sick.
Or it may not be anything like this. Advance is actually impossible to figure out. The bottom line — in the characterization of the Belarusian ruling elite, this many years ago Adamovich. This is the other or? If so, then the appropriate script — at least not a dream and not a horror story. At least that there is no one to report to, will not hold back. Already there is one.