Yuri Little Sheep: What is the U.S. decision to give written guarantees of the Russian Federation on missile defense?

There are two versions of why the United States after a long delay all the same have decided to give the Russian Federation specifically written, not verbal guarantees on missile defense. First, more general version is that after analyzing the consequences of this decision, the United States have seen that the written warranty niskolechko not complicate the realization of their goals as already announced the creation of areas of missile defense in Europe, and the new in Asia. Accordingly, the "guarantees" not directed U.S. missile defense systems, even in writing, against Russia niskolechko no effect on the awareness of the meaning of ABM deployment, which dominated by the elite of America: that no one has the right to restrict their deployment in the context of limiting criterion security of the USA. Because the U.S. is ready to give written guarantees to those of the Russian Federation (if this is the last objection Russian side — and it is indeed, apparently, the last substantive objection Moscow regarding U.S. missile defense systems), as after they give them, nothing more than the United States would not interfere to put a missile defense system, where they zahochut.

Immediately the question arises — what is specifically written assurances that the necessary condition, which makes the agreement between the U.S. and Russia endless and immutable? What they guarantee from Russian first strike by the United States? No, of course. Then there is a logical follow-up question — and for what general Russian side insisted on written guarantees? Indeed, we can recall that Hitler Russian Union also gave assurances to these guarantees and gone during the day June 22, 1941? That is, something definitely wrong with the Russian arguments on the need for giving the United States a written guarantee of missile defense systems being directed against Russia. Cowboys are known to host their own way — as it was given, and so can pick up, do not blink an eye. What's the point after all Russian position on the need for written guarantees on missile defense?

Option first — exchange

Can be fully admit that the United States made this decision in the framework of the exchange with Russia, one of the more pressing issues for the U.S. issues. Given the fact that the U.S. is the true and the coming future is more likely to be engaged in the Middle East, the most likely refers to the fact that, in exchange for the decision of Washington Our homeland will make (or already did) a retaliatory move, which is perceived as a Yankee adequate to address them. If refers to the fact that Americans are responsible of the Russian Federation on a move by the Kremlin, then it should be treated as a return of U.S. debt of, for example, for failing to Iran S-300 systems. It may indeed be the case, especially in view of the fact that the version of the usual exchange Yankees willingness to give written guarantees to Moscow is absolutely worthless: not more than the paper on which they are written. That is, This line of analysis is not a huge enthusiasm for the analysis, since It lacks the RF gain of course.

The second option — a great game

This line of consideration received U.S. solutions even more meaningful. If we talk briefly, then it refers to the fact that Washington is invited to Moscow for the big game, and counting on Moscow's willingness to participate in it. Accordingly, in this scenario, the U.S. decision is a sweeping gesture, which, in their opinion, should find itself in the Russian soul as wide response and the realization that the missile defense system is not aimed against Russia. Extrapolation of this band to a larger plane can imagine that the U.S. gives to realize the Kremlin that they are willing to accept the European part of Russia and the wider — of Western civilization, to recognize the scope of its legitimate interests — both economic and trade as well as military, political, and enable Russia to existing world trade and economic and political system without limits.

If this is in fact so (say), then it really opens up great prospects for Russian-American and Russian-European cooperation in the whole range of issues in world global problems. In-1's, Our homeland so close North Makar starts and that makes this project geopolitically meaningful, complete and whole. In-2, if the U.S. really willing to cooperate with Russia on missile defense, it opens the way for greater cooperation Russian and American companies. If this interaction is in itself not only include a component of the natural resources, and cooperation in the field of technology, then, of course, the arrival of new technology will be a boon to the Russian economy. B-3, the association of potentials 2-powers will allow a coordinated approach to the regions and countries whose leaders are trying to border countries in the characteristic manner bump heads stately country in the hope chew off their own small piece of the pie. First, it refers to the region of Eastern Europe. B-4, the beginning of cooperation on missile defense could open up the way to the solution of other important fundamental problems in relations between Russia and the U.S., as well as it should, serve to stabilize the political world. Specifically, this issue could pave the way for greater dialogue between Russia and NATO right up to the decision of the Russian Federation in this company.

Maybe it seems passing state interests. But, in fact, all that is now in the past, from the time of Peter I, made our homeland — it was an attempt to enter into Western civilization, to become a part of it. Our homeland, of course, is self-sufficient with the old history of civilization, and in a way it is a European civilization. The issue is that not everyone in the West, well, in most of, agree. Because if the world will prevail in the West that Russia is time to include the Western civilization — as soon started to read even such a geopolitical opponent of, as Zbigniew Brzezinski, then, in my opinion, this is a very huge breakthrough in Russian-Western relations. Recognition of civilization RF as self-sufficient and equally that of a European, as well as South American, German, French, etc. — This is a very harsh step of forming a reconciled XXI century.

After we briefly spotted a fundamental sense the consequences of the Yankees solutions on a global level, it is necessary to analyze and its effects on a more mundane level, namely, to describe the place of Belarus in these global raskladah.

The inevitability of change

If we extrapolate the Yankees made an offer of the Russian Federation for the Belarusian foreign policy and domestic political issues, the matter in accordance with any of the 2-above scenarios Washington did it, it means only one thing — the inevitability of severe political and economic changes in the country. If the Americans and Russian will be able to really condition is one of the most pressing issues of day or bilateral agenda, then how much more they will be able to agree on the issues and who are somewhere in the second and third 10-ments, one of which is question a weak refinement of modern Belarus in the global political and economic map of the world.

If our homeland and the West is really going to solve the issue of visa-free visits to each other, to work within 4 spaces to ensure the transparency of the Eurasian continent from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, it asks questions and solutions for all the remaining "hot spots" in the Eurasian space, one of which, unfortunately, so far is Belarus. The Belarusian authorities at the moment there is a unique opportunity to try to ride this wave and, without putting at risk the stability of the political regime, the very conduct the necessary political and economic reforms that would be welcomed by both the West
and the East. If it is not made, then the East and the West will be interested in the change of political power in the country and the rise entirely new people to government, so harmoniously fit into the emerging Eurasian republic place.

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