Day after day, Bangkok is sinking deeper and deeper into the sea. Immersion is inevitable. The most pessimistic experts fear that some of the Thai capital might disappear under the water by the 2030th year. That prospect — the next challenge that will respond to the new government in Thailand: it is formed after the elections on July 3. The specialists complain about the lack of a policy that can prevent programmed catastrophe.
Climate change, sea level rise, coastal erosion, subsidence of clay soil … A combination of factors doomed to crash a great city in the delta of the Chao Phraya River, founded April 21, 1782-the year the first monarch of the Chakri Dynasty, ruling the country today.
In this case, the city keeps growing: its population is constantly growing. For today in the city and its suburbs are approximately ten million people. The very weight of all the new skyscrapers constantly ascended to heaven in this ever-changing city, contributes to the gradual sinking of Bangkok. A considerable part of the metropolis is located below sea level, and the soil sags here at a rate of 1.5 to 5.3 cm per year.
In a more or less long term, more than a million buildings, 90% of them — living — will be at risk due to sea level rise. Asian Institute of Technology employees fear that if the situation does get worse, the first floor will be for the year waterlogged bog depth of ten centimeters.
In the port of Samut Prakan, located kilometers in 15 of Bangkok, residents of private houses that were built along the river, in some months already forced paddle.
The joint report of the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the Japanese Agency of development cooperation Bangkok was included in the list of cities at risk due to climate change.
One of the experts of the World Bank, working in the Thai capital, says that Bangkok goes under the water, in particular, because of excessively intensive pumping of groundwater. However, experts do not always agree with each other, although all agree that in the coming years, the situation will only worsen. Dharmasaroyya Smith (Smith Dharmasaroja), director of the National Office for the Prevention of Natural Disasters, predicts that in 2100 the year of Bangkok will be a new "Atlantis." For all his pessimism, the analysis of the meteorologist is credible, since the 90s of last century, he predicted the horrific tsunami that struck in December 2004 on the countries around the Indian Ocean.
Dharmasaroyya Smith argues that in government "was not taken any decision" in order to combat this phenomenon. "If nothing is done, — said the scientist — Bangkok can be under water already in the 2030th year."
One of the proposed solutions is they build a giant series of dams along the Gulf of Thailand. The project cost is estimated at more than two billion euros. Scientist calls for work to begin as soon as possible. Otherwise it will be too late to fight the inevitable accumulation causes a future disaster.
Anond Snidvongs (Anond Snidvongs) — oceanographer, specializing in the impact of climate change in South-East Asia — delivers a more moderate assessment. "No one can predict how many years it will be flooded Bangkok, and how it will develop the process," — he said. Scientists believe that the construction of large dams useless. "Sea level rise is not so great, and climate change plays a relatively small role — about 20%, according to the researchers — in the unfolding scenario."
Anond Snidvongs insists that "it is useless to try to save the shoreline erosion which occurs at a rate of 3-4 cm per year. A lost cause. But there are other ways to deal with floods, for example, a more intelligent order plots of land in the city limits. "
Architect Niramon Kulsrisombat (Niramon Kulsrisombat), Lecturer Faculty of Architecture of the prestigious Chulalongkorn University (Chulalongkorn) argues that "floods have always been perfectly natural phenomenon, as Bangkok is built on clay soil at the height of five feet above sea level."
In the past, many "Khlong" (canals), vegetable gardens and fields absorbed the water and avoiding floods. But in the recent urbanization of land, primarily contributed to water drainage, numerous buildings were built.
"The work of the authorities for the construction of dams along the height of 2.8 meters a number of sections of the river Chao Phraya led only to that city, where people live on the water in houses on stilts, even more lost its traditional character."
Anond Snidvongs believes that the key to the preservation of the city will be to coordinate the response at the government level, "It is absolutely necessary to reach a consensus, so that one million people, who are more or less in the long term will be directly affected by flooding, have agreed to the principle underlying the proposed solutions. The main thing here is not the technical or financial aspects. We need professionals to come to an agreement and announced the exact numbers of which might have been a logical picture of what the future holds. "
In other words, scholars of Bangkok, day after day, to clarify the diagnosis in order to better prepare for the salvation of the Thai capital.