Climate change in the next 200 years will make drought and abnormally low rainfall in the monsoon season in India is much more frequent that threaten the food security of the country, the researchers report the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in an article in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
The authors of the study using a computer model predicted the distribution of rainfall during the summer monsoon season in India from June to September, suggesting that the global average temperature of the planet by 2200 will increase by about 4.5 degrees Celsius.
Under this scenario, since 2151, according to calculations of the authors, "failure" may be a fifth season of monsoon. "A failed" monsoon researchers identified as abnormally low rainfall, by 40-70%, "catch-up" from the norm — about three millimeters of rain against the normal 6.7 mm.
No such event has not yet been recorded in the history of meteorological observations in India since 1870, the researchers note. However, even smaller scale drought in 2009 led to the fact that India had to import sugar, and the price of this product in the world market rose to 30-year highs.
"Over the past 100 years, the amount of precipitation brought by the monsoon in India, has remained stable. Its decline even 10% would be a disaster for the country", — quotes agency Reutersslova one of the study's authors, Professor Potsdam Institute Levermanna Anders (Anders Levermann).
Increasing global temperature means that more water will evaporate from the surface of the oceans, which in turn will lead to an increase in the intensity and duration of rainfall in many regions. However, the study found that climate change will destroy the steady movement of air over the tropical Pacific — the so-called Walker circulation, which contributes to the offensive of the monsoon season in India.
Potsdam Institute study differs from the results of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, which stated that in the next century rainfall brought by the monsoons in Asia, will become more unstable, but in general will be a tendency to an increase .