Greenhouse gas emissions increase with economic growth, but the decline is reduced almost twice slower than GDP, as people get used to the "high-carbon" lifestyle, according to a paper published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
According to calculations of the author, Richard of York (Richard York) of the University of Oregon, in the years 1960-2008 on average for every 1% increase in GDP per capita is 0.73% increase in CO2 emissions in energy and industry, while a 1% the fall of the indicator — a 0.43% decrease in emissions of CO2.
"An important implication of this fact is that CO2 emissions depend not only on the size of the economy, but also on the dynamics of growth and decline that preceded the achievement of this size," — writes in a New York paper.
According to the researcher, this asymmetry in the emission trends due to the fact that economic growth accompanied by long-term investments in energy infrastructure, such powerful cars that people continue to use and during the slowdown and recession. In particular, these assumptions, according to the York meet CO2 emission situation in post-Soviet countries in the early 1990s, which declined more slowly than in the same period grew emissions in other countries.
Scientists emphasize that the demonstrated asymmetry should be considered when forecasting the dynamics of emissions because "symmetrical model (assuming the same rate of increase and decrease in emissions — ed.) Are underestimated in some cases, while in others — to overestimate the rate of CO2 emissions per capita."
Project participants Global Carbon Project at the end of 2011 published in Nature Climate Change article, which showed that the world economic crisis of 2008-2009 could not "slow down" the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy and industry. As the researchers found, it took only one year to the emissions started to grow again in 2010 to a record 33.4 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent.