Fellow of the analytical agency on condition of anonymity, shared the results of a study of short-term development of Russia, based on public statistics, and public sources of information. Give the talk in an abridged edition.
Why did you decide to tell everyone about this study? Certain information not intended for publication?
— This is a personal decision. Want the results of the analysis to know more people.
Have you been told who's the customer?
Of course not. Client — a little-known foreign companies, which obviously is more serious player. After talking during work with foreign colleagues, we realized that work like ours in parallel conducted numerous research groups not only in Russia but also in other countries. These costs can afford organization freely dispose of very large sums, the order — hundreds of millions of dollars. It can be assumed that the customer level Russian presidential administration or the State Department.
What have you been able to find out in the course of your work?
— On this subject in recent years brought a wealth of research from various institutions, a huge amount of media coverage. Comparing the information field for the last three years, we have seen that the total amount of information is almost two times higher than the previous three-year performance. By analyzing information flows, we saw a completely new trends and patterns. Know it when patience begins to converge. Completely different facts suddenly fit into the chain, leading to the same goal.
You can list the control points, key events, showing the process that leads to this goal?
— All the facts — hundreds of pages of analysis, here are the most obvious examples.
America 20 years would not let us into the WTO, and now suddenly agreed.
Yanukovych has attended Russian language. Passed the law, and immediately shook Ukraine.
London processes with oligarchs? they provide the necessary background to put pressure on the owners. In Russia, there is not a single independent tycoon. But in the "Russian" oligarch London anyone at any time to deliver an ultimatum? or you are for "freedom and democracy", or your property confiscated, as acquired by criminal means. These people are not hard to get funding to give billions to the collapse of Russia.
Now foreign investment in the area from the Urals to the Chukotka not go, because in Russia 'a poor investment climate. " As soon as there will be independent of the Moscow government, the climate will immediately become "favorable" and "London" capital will flood back the river.
In Russia, a new memorable date? Victory of the Russian Fleet over the Turkish fleet in the Battle of Chesma, July 7. Why do it? Who remembers this Cesme two centuries ago? A certain part of the Russian elite reminds Turkey that it is time to strengthen the work of Russian Muslims. And so it is very active. A recent explosion in Kazan?
Unnoticed in the media, for example, was initiated by Turkey United Bashkir and Tatar nationalists, who a thousand years hating one another.
Now introduce a prohibitive import duty on salvage used cars, then, and a few tens of thousands of people in the Far East will be ready to support the separation of the region from Russia. There have not yet forgotten the Moscow riot police disperse protests against higher import duties two years ago.
Nationality "Siberian" is also not invented by accident, though, we believe that this is just a "folk art", skillfully promoted in the network.
But for a possible operation to dismember Russia prepared and international background in the form of war in the Middle East. Iraq, Libya, Syria. At the turn of Iran, whose nuclear program threatens America no more than a mythical weapons of mass destruction Saddam Ismena rulers loyal to Muslim extremists.
Dismemberment of Russia? end in itself?
America's power potentially definitely want to get rid of Russia as a nation with nuclear weapons, nuclear submarines and ballistic missiles. The second goal — to provide access to the resources of Siberia, the Far East and the Arctic Ocean. Dismemberment only the most suitable instrument for this purpose. And ensure that the country will never be reborn.
The key point? separate European Russia from oil and gas resources in Siberia. Without the revenue from these resources Moscow will have to fight for physical survival.
Is there any real prerequisites for the development of such a scenario?
— On the Siberian railway stations can hear the announcement, "The train is coming to Russia." In the Far East, people do see themselves more as market APR, not Russian and especially the European market. The Chinese have openly declared that control more than half of the fish catch in the Far East, of course, not without the Far authorities.
Somehow forgot that the collapse of the Soviet Union's Communist leaders have implemented national republics. In Russia, the same former Communist leaders are the heads of the Federation. And even after all the changes of personalities rules preserved the heads of the subjects still standing example of their national colleagues. Why not again?
Do you think that leapfrog regional leaders over the past two decades has not knocked out of them this idea?
— First, such a thought? detach itself reborn always and everywhere at the rulers of all time. Secondly … We watched "leapfrog" across regions. In the European part of Russia 'leapfrog' there, sent from Moscow to "reign and rule over" someone or falling. In the Far East? Not at all. With the exception of the governor of the seaside, there are all appointees? local. Even cohesive Siberia failed to keep the defense from the Vikings, and in the Far East? succeeded. Only the head of Primorye appointed armchair scientist, never actually nothing serious in my life did not really lead. Actually get zits-governor. No really serious side to figure Far clan never missed.
According to our analysis, the Far East, the number of transitions of profitable business from hand to hand in three to five times less than in Siberia, and in ten? than in central Russia. Region actually fell out of the business processes of mergers / acquisitions / bankruptcies. This is a key sign of separation from the rest of the country's economic life of the region.
Separatist-minded head of the Far Eastern regions can play a key role in the Moscow office of the Far East first, and then with the Urals and Siberia.
And this may bytispolzovany all the tools. The economy of Siberia and the Far East will continue to be a central lock a specially designed machine to China and other Asia Pacific countries under the tacit control of Washington.
Besides the economy, will be hard to be adjusted human communication, for example, students will be sent en masse to study in Chinese, Japanese and Korean universities. Experts under the pretext of learning new technologies will be an internship in companies of those countries. Thus, you can change the psychological setting "strangers" will be the Russians, and "their"? Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Americans.
Indeed, China dramatically increases the number of foreign students. Over the past four years, their number increased sprimerno, 195 thousand to 290 thousand only from Russia last year in China has learned about 12 thousand students, it is one-fifth of the student contingent of the largest in the Far East, the Far Eastern Federal University. Chinese universities have become a "melting pot" for the intellectual elite of the world of young people.
But all the governors beating their breasts "we patriots of Russia?"
Look not on words, but on the matter. Amur governor, according to a former Russian presidential envoy in the Primorsky Territory Victor Kondratovav last leader of a criminal group Vladivostok. Ishayev envoy, spit on all the rules and decorum, chasing police officers, who did not lose his way, and then called for his dismissal. And as the precious metal came under the control of the family Ishayev and people from his inner circle of five generations to come.
In general, for so many dignitaries Far so many violations of the law, that they do not have enough life in jail .. They are terribly afraid of the exposure and the fact that they will take away their control of the enterprise and the company. Under the security of tenure of their businesses, many of them will pass the Far East even Martians.
And I will quote only easily verifiable facts.
How far through the process?
— You want me to scare you? Gref once when he was economy minister stood firmly against the construction of a bridge in China in Blagoveshchensk. Gref said that he understands why the bridge needed to China, but does not understand why Russia needs. And the money is not returned.
In 2004, the governors of the Far East, including Viktor Ishayev, then governor of the Khabarovsk Krai, China agreed to transfer part of the Big Ussuri Island near Khabarovsk. Governors struck a bridge to the island for the Russian budget. The bridge is built, has already spent about 700 million rubles. China has allocated money for a new airport in the border county of Fuyuan, and a new two-kilometer road bridge to the island, and on the railway from the village to the town of Fuyuan Jiamusi.
Now Ishayev said that the bridge from Khabarovsk to the island only to Chinese and it is almost a betrayal of national interests. As if his signature on all the documents should not be!
Export raw materials from Russia and import goods to Russia?
This is also firmly and Ishayev. And so we thought. But just in case, given the situation in the analysis of the experts. And that's what transpired. In this region, China has little plants. This is for the north of China, and the majority of goods produced in the warm south, and transported by sea to Vladivostok, and from there by rail. Carry goods across China by land expensive. The consensus forecast, taking into account the construction of the bridge to the island from both sides of the railway from the interior of China and the airport, is this: to create the possibility of rapid transfer from China to Russia of manpower and equipment in the event of armed conflict.
A week ago at the request of the Far Eastern governors Prime Medvedev allowed Chinese aircraft to cross the state border of the Russian Federation during the aerial survey of border regions of Russia.
You said that a separate study conducted by the Far East. Why the origin was exactly this region? And how true today, the statement "Siberia and the Far East will grow Russian land"?
— I am afraid that a converse result — from these regions will split the country. Far East was chosen for this reason. Look — in any other region of Russia has no such close and informal relations, including direct contacts with foreign countries, as in the Far East. Moreover, it is at the level of intra-regional subjects of.
If Yakutia and western Siberia produce natural gas, diamonds, oil, these resources are controlled by the federal center. Riches of the Far East for a long time are the resource base for overseas, particularly China. Do we have even one region, which would be completely been focused on foreign economies? Had that with Russia, the region has not even noticed.
Today, in fact, already is the final stage of preparation for the separation of the Far East of Russia.
Psychologically, the population of Siberia and the Far East to Moscow is ready to send to hell. But they have not yet fully matured to political independence. Need an organizing center. In part, this center serves "Siberian Agreement". We can say that the plenipotentiary Ishayev actually produced "Far agreement", although technically it is not yet fixed.
We believe that the hour "X" is approaching. Recently, the same Ishayev said he would not let the ESPO pipeline to St. Petersburg. Ten years ago, none of the officials of such statements even thought could happen. As it is a public official is openly challenging the federal center? But now? please. Ishayev actually sees itself as an equal partner of Moscow, and not even trying to hide it. None other than the representative of the state, in fact, through thoughtlessness whether intentionally or actually stated the need to transit fees for Russian goods coming from Moscow on its territory. But this is far Russian territory. This approach is called in all dictionaries separatism. And Ishayev not afraid to publicly disclose their position, so for him are forces that can support it. A key interested parties in the region? only China and the U.S..
Why does a person who has, according to rumors, the active connection with the criminals of the Far East, whose second position is not less important, first, official, instead of dismissal for gross or thinly disguised confrontation with the federal government appointed presidential envoy?
Why do you always call only the surname Ishayev. But other leaders?
— In our country there are two regions. Where the federal government is essentially passed the position — Chechnya and the Far East. Chechnya permanently negotiating power, giving local clans republic in full control. From the Far East more difficult. Here there teip but strong fraternities and "concepts". Federal control over all major resource segments almost lost. Authority of the government is low. The level of corruption is extremely high. The crime rate in the Far East last year alone rose by 7%. The federal budget receives less from the sale of timber and timber billions. Against this background, heavyweight Ishayev. The man, who can not be fired. And that is why a person with rumored to active links with criminals of the Far East, whose second position is not less important, first, official, instead of dismissal for gross or thinly disguised confrontation with the federal government appointed presidential envoy? In fact, the power of this appointment demonstrates the powerlessness and not merely the absence of arms control and inability to influence the enforcement of the law in the Far East. Two regions in Russia, where the government assessed the situation decided that accept smart and not lose more, it is Chechnya, and the Far East, but she and the other side understands that benefit only time.
On the other hand, Ishayev formal and informal leaders. And all these years he beat his patriotic chest that people believe in this chest. It is just more convenient Ishayev ever will say something like: "Brothers and sisters. Kremlin oligarchs have betrayed us. This is the hour to decide their own destiny. " Although, of course, is not the point.
Ishayev himself in an interview to "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", you can say signed for failure in an unknown direction of more than $ 3 billion only for fishing. According to our data, the budget of the shadow economy of the Far East is 32-35 billion dollars. Where this money go?
That is actually the economy is ready. Requires only a push to start the political sovereignty of the regions.
How can this push?
— For example, similar to the destruction of the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydropower plant, with disastrous consequences. Or a possible drop in oil prices to $ 10 a barrel, which is immediately deprived Moscow of money, without which it can not hold all the Urals. At that price, any export of Russian oil is not profitable. But "friendly" regimes, China and the U.S. will be able to lend a hand, for example, be subsidizing oil pumping ESPO, provide soft loans, but not through Moscow, but directly — Tyumen, Novosibirsk, Khabarovsk, Vladivostok. Or will they change the oil in barter for food and goods.
But after all the experts argue that America is advantageous price of oil in the region of 100 dollars?
— America prints dollars and can support its oil industry at the expense of the printing press. China low price of oil is very beneficial. Washington can negotiate with Beijing, the Chinese do not pull down the dollar, and the Americans dropping oil. Now published as articles about the harsh confrontation between Beijing and Washington, according to the laws of the genre we are forced to conclude that their close cooperation. By the way, China has trained about 25 thousand American students.
What US-friendly Arab oil regimes?
— Example Mubarak showed the price of "friendship" with the U.S.. When you are ready, the Americans will press the button on the stock exchange, and the oil crash. Perhaps with the onset of war in the Middle East. We see this as the main scenario.
The Kremlin understands the danger of the situation?
— No, they believe that the "Magnitsky list" unfortunate misunderstanding. But there would be Magnitsky, come up with something else. And our MPs complain that they "do not want to listen."
Are trained, people mature, and above and below. And then maybe Ishayev, Kozhemyaka, Shport agree among themselves "for the revival of his native land," that is the safety of their capital, and throw Muscovites like Miklushevsky as kittens.
How deep is the split of the country? Do you think that the cracks are on the existing administrative borders? And yet — we have a large number of regions, the same Far East — the subsidy. How subsidized regions can plan independent even theoretically?
We did of 83 subjects of the Russian Federation, 70 are subsidized. By nedotatsionnym regions are Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan, Perm,
Vologda, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Samara, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen Oblast, Nenets, Khanty-Mansi and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. But if you begin to study economics individual subsidized regions, you will find many interesting things. Take the Czech Republic or Georgia and compare with their budgets budget of a subsidized regions. For example, the budget of the Rostov region this year — 285 billion rubles (about $ 9.5 billion). Georgia's budget — $ 8.8 billion population and approximately comparable: 4.2 million and 4.4 million respectively. But Georgia's budget surplus, and the Rostov region is connected to the general federal oil and gas pipeline through which each year receives in its coffers almost $ 1 billion in subsidies.
From the Far East even more complicated. Vladivostok budget — 340 billion rubles (about $ 11 billion), the region formally subsidized. But the order of 55 billion rubles only fish out the sea by the federal and regional budgets, it is the official data. Like-for-$ 46 billion goes to China forest. In the literal sense, and that is also semi-official data, the voice of authority.
The total budget of the region of the shadow on our data than the official budget. What kind of subsidization and depending on the federation can I say?
This in our opinion is explained growing separatist propaganda same Ishayev. It was he who understands the real possibility of the Far East.
What was the scheme, and in what order, in your opinion, will split? Will the new format "Bialowieza" agreement, or all will fall without warning?
— Predicted by our scenario, the process will be gradual. First, the type of contract agreement signed Bialowieza subjects Far East and present an ultimatum to Moscow. Siberia and the Urals will fluctuate. But the Americans, the Europeans and the Chinese will offer these "cakes and pies" that the situation quickly bow to the signing of agreements by all stakeholders? from the Urals to Chukotka.
The Kremlin is likely to keep the regions in the European part of the country. Start time of troubles, European regions will offer to pay for oil and gas in hard currency, which they will not appear. Again, the United States, along with China and "democratic world community" will "help" the livelihoods of the European territory, but in exchange for nuclear disarmament. Where the Kremlin disappear if nothing heat and power off?
For the first time, the U.S. and China would be beneficial to have a lot of dependent entities in the Urals and east. But bickering between the regions will be a hindrance for the export of resources, so "peacekeeping forces" will be built in the breakaway Russian lands "new order."
We proceed from the assumption that world powers have agreed not to directly occupy the territory of the former Russia, and, most likely, it will rob together.
Based on the study of sources, we drew a "scheme split"? The Far Eastern Republic (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krai, Amur Oblast, Jewish Autonomous Region, part of the Trans-Baikal region), Magadan Republic (Magadan, Kamchatka, Chukotka), Greater Yakutia. Yakutia is likely to stretch from the ocean to China, ottorgnuv Irkutsk County and part of the Trans-Baikal region, breaking the Russian territory comprador elite.
Russian Caucasus republic, likely to start the capture of Stavropol and Krasnodar region, which could lead to a long war on the entire space between the Don, the Volga and the North Caucasus, with the active intervention of Turkey.
Krasnoyarsk (or East Siberian) republic stretch along the Yenisei River. In the Siberian Confederation united Siberian region of Altai, Kuzbass. Big Ural unite Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan region, and possibly part of the Orenburg and Kirov and Perm regions.
Volga confederation might be divided into the right bank and left bank, or maybe not. It all depends on the activity of the Muslims on the right bank of the Volga. It all may enter the area from the Nizhny Novgorod region and the south.
The agreement will extend from northern Pskov to the Nenets Autonomous District, it will be under the wing of the Scandinavians, British and Germans.
Black Earth escape from Moscow, probably with Ukraine. Russian Caucasus republic, likely to start the capture of Stavropol and Krasnodar region, which may privedesti for a long war on the entire space between the Don, the Volga and the North Caucasus, with the active intervention of Turkey. Washington had Georgia, so he fell off a desire to stay out of this snake nest, Moscow "principality" shrink to the central Nechernozemie, and will be somewhere on the scale of the 15th century …
It is unlikely that this pattern so well in practice. But no matter how events turned, the Russian Empire, it is likely in the near future will end forever.