According to a new study by the end of the century could be much warmer than previously estimated. They say that the average temperature will be much higher than indicated in the worst case scenario of IPCC.
In the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant in the Japanese prefecture of Fukushima reality was far worse than expected in theory. The same applies to the debate about climate change.
A team of American and Swiss scientists simply took into account the global population growth, resulting from the UN projections, per capita energy consumption and the possible combinations of primary energy — such as coal, atomic and renewable sources.
On the one hand, researchers have assumed that the energy consumption per capita will continue to grow at a constant rate in 2100 will increase four-fold compared to what it is today. The population will also come: perhaps by the end of the century we will have 15 billion in one of the scenarios assume that coal will be the main source of energy — it will have 90%. In another scenario, the current percentage of energy sources used unchanged. The researchers hypothesized that there would be no reduction of emissions CO2 — and this is more than a sober reasoning, based on what is going on with the discussion of a new climate treaty.
Now sit down and try to relax. In the coal scenario in 2100, the average temperature has increased by 5,1? C as compared to the 1990 level. Particularly strong growth was at the North Pole — at 11-12? C. If the current power balance will remain the same, the planet will warm by 3,7? C, and this is also not good.
New scripts have also shown that in southern Europe any shortages of water. Annual precipitation may fall by 20-60%. The rest will get the Sahara.
By 2070 the Arctic sea ice is completely deprived.
In general, climate change will be gradual, rather than abruptly.
Scientists rush to recall that this is not a forecast, but one of a number of possibilities. However, if you sit back …