Lukashenko does not win in the first round?

Society
Several media outlets reported on the main results of the latest survey NISEPI or under such headings like this, without a question mark. On a sensation wrote "Guerrilla", "Belma", "ERB", "Empire."

That is already a respected Canadian researcher David Marples calls it the main outcome of the study and display of his far-sighted conclusions about the scenario of the election campaign. But is there any sensation at all, and that should be the conclusion of the study put out by the media?

What was the occasion? Figure — if the election were held tomorrow, for Lukashenko expressed their readiness to vote 45.6% of the respondents. But a comparison of this figure with the trend suggests that in fact in June, with a rating of the incumbent was not anything extraordinary

Table 1. Of answers to the question, "If tomorrow presidential elections in Belarus, for whom would you vote?"% (Open question)

Answer 0406 09'08 12'08 03'09 06'09 09'09 1209 0310
Lukashenko 60.3 42.5 40.2 39.2 40.9 39.4 42.5 42.7

The painting, on the contrary, affects boring (and for some inspiring) homogeneity. In addition to the peak value at the time of the election, Lukashenko's rating is constantly fluctuating around the value of approximately 40%. If it is a sensation, the one that is repeated with the regularity of the polls.

Not exactly similar, but such data — in polls NOVAK laboratory carried out in the framework of international research "Eurasian Monitor".

Table 2. Dynamics of respondents who disapprove of the president of Belarus,%

0404 0904 0405 1005 0406 1106 0507 1007 0508 1108 0509 1109
37 52 53 64 69 75 61 57 50 50 48 54

Thus, the peak in 2006 was in the past, but at the end of 2009 the numbers of positive evaluations of the policies of President does not testified about a significant drop in its popularity.

Memories of 2006

But as NISEPI looked at the situation with the electoral rating of 4 months before the last presidential election.

The same pattern — from the end of 2004 presidential rating Lukashenko ranges of the same 40%. Later, just before the elections and during them — leap up.

Spurt is partly made artificially, in part — of course. Under the artificiality in this case refers not electoral alhimiya laboratory Lydia Yarmoshina and things partially netaemnyya — generous social policy, raising salaries and pensions, and work to their full capacity propaganda machine. The second term breakthrough — the mechanisms that operate in any country, even dictatorial, even democratic. On the eve of the elections in any country is the political mobilization of the people who between elections do not think about politics in one way or another are determined. Someone is defined differently (making vznimayutstsa ratings outsiders), and someone like that. And if the competition has a clear leader, in his favor for a significant, if not the largest share. About who this leader in the imagination of the Belarusians, but who was it for the past few years — Table 5.

These factors are all at the peak of the campaign leader added another 10-15 percentage points. That's it — a sensation that was not there.

45.6% — win or not?

And now about the very findings do not mean 45.6%, which is winning the first round at Lukashenko not. Again, do not mean.

This percent — of all respondents representing the entire population. And the results of the elections are considered to have come to the polls. When it came to 50% of those that have the right to vote, and 90% of them voted for any candidate (which is really convincing victory), then the total population of these are the 45%, in which the respected publications and experts saw affair. However, generally speaking, the election can not go both opponents and supporters of Lukashenko, the latter may slightly reduce the number of votes cast for him during the election. But it is in general. But in practice, the most actively go to the polls once the categories of the population, including the willingness to vote for Lukashenko reaches dizzying numbers — the elderly, farmers and residents of small towns, people with low education. Those who are for Lukashenko, will be given to the elections and they will come to them out of habit in the vast majority. And among the young, educated and Minsk tendency to go to the polls — the lowest among all socio-demographic groups.

With this in mind the need of the mentioned figures of the second round of the very few not to be.

You can, of course, to say that all these polls — solid stuff that smart people are more aware of it and that's what people really think. This is a valid approach, but then why not stick with it consistently, just forgetting polls as such, and not vycheplivats have something that seems politically useful, in addition to the illiterate interpretation. Of course, the world is ruled by faith and hope, not soulless numbers. Besides elections — not tomorrow, something, maybe everything can change. But it seems that in any case is unlikely to be confused with the illusions of hope.

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