North Pacific is about to cease to be the Arctic

23.04.2013

U.S. scientists predict that it will happen within 10-20 years.

Climate scientists have long said (and objectively prove) that the polar ice is melting due to global warming. Politicians make their conclusions from this: the authorities of Russia, the U.S., Canada, Norway, Denmark "Pillars plots" in the Arctic Ocean, proving their rights to the hydrocarbon-rich seabed. Today, in many places it is still covered by a thick layer of not only water but also the ice shell, but the ice each year is getting smaller, and very soon, the scientists predict, in the summer it would not be at all. This radically expand the geography of oil and gas production in the North.

Predictions of scientists are rapidly becoming more radical. Back in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN believed that the sea ice in the Arctic will last until the end of the century. Now it is only the first half of the century. A few days ago, two researchers of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA), and James Overland Muyin Wang published a forecast: summer ice in the Arctic will not be in the first half of the 21st century — perhaps even within one to two decades.

Their research results were published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, are based on three different methods, all three of which showed the same result: the sea ice in the Arctic is rapidly disappearing, soon it almost does not remain. Scientists emphasize the word "almost" because some parts of the ice will obviously continue to the north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago.

"The rapid disappearance of the Arctic sea ice — says James Overland, — is probably the most obvious indicator of global climate change. It leads to shifts in ecosystems, changes economic access (scientist has in mind access to the Arctic deposits of hydrocarbons. — IB) and potentially affect the weather in the Northern Hemisphere … rapid loss of Arctic sea ice stresses the urgency of climate change. "

Three models used by scientists in their calculations give different results — from 10 to 40 years — but none of them leaves no chance the North Arctic Ocean to remain in the second half of this century.

From the melting of floating sea ice ocean levels are not increased. It is growing, albeit slightly, as a result of warming sea water, scientists say. The maximum density of water (and its volume, respectively, minimum) at 4 ° C, the temperature rise of the ocean is increasing its level.

Disturbing the scientific community is the fact that the melting of Arctic sea ice has the effect of melting of land ice in Greenland shell. The journal Science published the results of the study, which sponsored the NASA, the European Union, U.S. National Science Foundation and the UK research councils and the Netherlands: melting of the Greenland ice sheet is now up to five times faster than in 1990. If all of this ice melted, sea levels will rise by 7 meters. How much time (centuries) it will take to melt the shield more than two kilometers of depth, which covers the largest island in the world — a controversial issue. Not controversial is that the melting of sea ice in the Arctic is accelerating.

A similar pattern is observed on the opposite, southern cap of the planet — in Antarctica. In the scientific journal Nature Geoscience group of scientists (Nerili Eybrem, Robert Mulvaney, Eric Wolff, etc.) describe the results that gave the drilling of boreholes in two different regions of the Antarctic ice sheet. In one of the two places on the Antarctic Peninsula, the ice is melting at the fastest pace in a thousand years — this is the analysis the 364-meter ice core recovered from the pit drilled. Over the millennia — a tenfold increase in the rate of melting of ice! Elsewhere, in West Antarctica, is also in the process of the rapid melting of ice sheets, but the analysis of samples of ice shows that over the last two thousand years there have been periods in its parameters approaching the present.

Scientists have concluded that, at least in part, reduced ice cover in Antarctica is the result of human activities. "The Antarctic Peninsula — says Nerili Eybrem of the Australian National University — heated up to such a level that even small increases in temperature can now result in a significant increase in summer melting of the ice. This has important consequences in terms of instability of ice and rising sea levels … ".

Once more useful to pay attention to our skeptics that global warming has resulted in a variety of climatic anomalies — this hot summers and cold, snowy winters. With regard to our own, in the Northern Hemisphere, say thank you for this melting Arctic, says climate scientist Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University (USA, NJ).

Reached if the melting of Arctic ice point of no return? There are different opinions. A group of prominent scientists in the journal Nature suggests that it is necessary to immediately reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 60% and continue to reduce further. It is difficult, but possible. Maybe, but hardly realistic …

Ilya Baranikas

Antarctic bivalve molluscs of the species Laternula elliptica simply can not adapt to the rapid increase in temperature in the range of the world's oceans.

What are the general conclusions and results of the experts have come that you need to take now, the experts decided to find out the news department of Science, news, UK and Germany's economic news publication for the modern investor "Market Leader".
Also important is the fact that in the long term, over time it can become a driver of extinction of this species. These are the results of several studies that have been conducted by researchers of the Institute of Polar Research. Alfred Wegener, as well as in the English National Centre for Antarctic Studies along with their colleagues from the Federal Republic of Germany Research Center University. Christian-Albrechts in the town of Kiel.

As shown by various studies and experiments, global climate change, which are most pronounced in the polar regions of the earth's surface are just an instant reaction from the Antarctic molluscs. In the case of rapid uplift of ocean temperature rises as the acidity of the water and, as a result, clams simply deprived of the oxygen they need, and they just start to move to areas with the most favorable conditions for their development and the environment. And yet, in fact, found out that by such adaptation can only those individuals of the number molluscs which have not yet reached the age of three years. More representatives are adults of this species in mind his age myshtsevoy atrophy can not move, so, in fact, condemned to death for lack of oxygen, RIA Novosti reported.
Foreign scientific journals and the media also focus attention on the fact that just after the creature of his three years of age, all the individuals of this species acquire the ability to reproduce their offspring. Accordingly, as noted by the authors themselves and experts who participated in the study, in the event of a future rise in the temperature of the oceans, as well as the acidity of the water clams Laternula elliptica are doomed to an inevitable decline in the number, in the long term, however, threatens their survival.

Valentin Fomin

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