Possible consequences of the ruling of the International Court of Kosovo

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The International Court of Justice today, after months of consideration of complaints of Serbia issued a ruling that the proclamation of Kosovo in February 2008, independence did not violate international law. Today's decision by the court in The Hague, the browser parses RL Yuri Drakakhrust.

Drakakhrust: First of all, it should be noted that the court has a consultative, advisory. But the authority of the court, a long, comprehensive examination of the case attaches to weight more than personal opinion. It seems it was the first time in court, the legal order of the international community in the face of the international court recognized the right of a territory to self-determination.

The consequences of this decision are pretty obvious. After his Kosovo authorities will be even less than before, tend to negotiate for certain autonomous rights of the Serbs, who lived in the north of Kosovo. It is possible that if they continue their struggle against them, force will be used. Such disturbances can not be excluded as a consequence of the opposite decision could be riots by the Kosovo Albanians.

The court's decision also has the character of a legal precedent, although it can not be exaggerated.

The court's decision also has the character of a legal precedent, although it can not be exaggerated. Throughout the proceedings, not only Serbiya, which filed the suit, but also Russia, China, and Spain strongly opposed the recognition of the legality of Kosovo's independence, trying precedent to themselves: they all have problems with separatist movements.

The decision of the International Court could worsen relations between Russia and China on the one hand and the United States — on the other. Moscow and Beijing are likely to find that Washington used its influence to push its position to support Kosovo's independence.

Reporter: Yuri, of the 192 member states of the UN have recognized Kosovo's independence 62 countries. Today's decision — whether it can contribute to the fact that the number of countries that recognize Pristina becomes more?

Drakakhrust: Experts believe that this is possible, but unlikely to be a lot of countries. Everyone who saw fit to recognize the independence of

Reverse the decision would be a strong shock to many European countries.

Kosovo has made it the basis of a political and a legal considerations. Experts believed that the inverse solution — a verdict that the recognition of the illegal, would be a great shock to many European countries. By the way, out of the 27 EU countries have recognized Kosovo's independence 22 countries. So, even an advisory verdict of the International Court would create uncomfortable situation for the European Union, the ideology of the policy which is based on respect for international law. Well, since the conscience of Europe will be calm.

Reporter: And in this situation, will do Serbiya?

Drakakhrust: It will continue to struggle. The plans of Belgrade — to appeal to the General Assembly of the United Nations. The fact is that on the one hand, in the current situation Serbiya not have the practical ability to return its sovereignty over Kosovo by force. On the other hand, although the loss of territory, Serbs see as the cradle of its statehood — is an open wound, but Serbiya has other priorities, other than the return of Kosovo, it is in particular the European integration. Therefore, Belgrade will continue to work for the return, but only by legal means.

Reporter: Yuri, you talked about the precedent. How big is it important?

Drakakhrust: More relevant is the fact of recognizing the independence of Kosovo third world countries. Kosovo's independence has been won if not, then guaranteed by force of arms. But then played the role of diplomacy, the situation in Kosovo represents a contrast with the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose independence is recognized only by Russia in addition Venesuela, Nicaragua and Vanuatu.

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