Information warfare between the official Minsk and Moscow: what opportunities for the Belarusian opposition, it opens that trap fraught? What can the opposition Moscow? Does Russia have a stake in the Belarusian presidential election? On these topics in the "Prague accent" debating a member of the electoral team of Andrei Sannikov, the chairman of the Minsk city organization of the Belarusian Popular Front Party Viktor Ivashkevich, one of the leaders of the "Movement for Freedom" Ales Lahvinets and activist of the "Tell the Truth" Alexander Fyaduta.
Drakakhrust: Between the official Minsk and Moscow — the information war, NTV shows the "godfathers", recalling the missing Belarusian politicians, pro-government in Belarus "Republic" for Putin destroying prints a report by Boris Nemtsov, and BT passes interview with the President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili.
It seems that this new Moscow's policy towards Belarus opens for the Belarusian opposition some opportunities, but also poses some pitfalls.
This week I was doing a round table, which formulated the dilemma in the most pointed form: for Lukashenko or Russia. Many listeners and readers of my criticized such a question, they say, should be of Belarus, not to choose the lesser evil.
Well, of course, do not choose, but I personally think it is convenient to do, living in a monastery, rather than engaging in politics.
It is evident that the current rotation Russian state media, the fact that after 10 years they remembered about the missing notice of repression against the opposition was due to their addiction to human rights per se, but the interests of the Russian state.
And the one who turned the game, acts in line with those interests. No matter what he himself thinks.
One way or not? Or is this artificial dilemma?
Ivashkevich: I think that it is an artificial dilemma and it just supports the Lukashenko agitprop: independence — it is only Lukashenko, and all who oppose Lukashenko — Russian agents. I believe that the democratic opposition should take advantage of a quarrel between the dictator and his former sponsors and hold your line. Rotation, which now took place in the politics of Russia, due to the fact that its economic situation forces her to forge closer business
contacts with Europe and the U.S. to receive investments and new technologies. And in these new business schemes, they need a partner in Belarus businessman with whom you can negotiate rather than a satrap who was put here to protect military bases and border. Until recently, Russia considers Belarus as a military base, the forward line, "Stalin Line" in the confrontation with NATO. And the position of the Russian military was the fact that Lukashenko is necessary to support anyone. And when he hits the pro-Western opposition, then so it should be. But now need a partner that has a reliable and words that can collaborate on business plans. In cooperation on business schemes can defend and Belarusian interests and negotiate with the Russians, and with Europe, because business is usually not at war, and agrees.
Drakakhrust: Victor, in his time in Belarus were of the opinion that everything that comes from Russia — it's dangerous and leads to loss of independence. Now presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov stands by the TV channel Russia Today. What is debatable, but this channel — and it's really propaganda mouthpiece of the Kremlin's foreign policy, and so it and perceive the world. It is not there any disadvantages?
Ivashkevich: Sannikov speaks on Russia Today, Sannikov stands and Bi-Bi-Si, which is the mouthpiece of London's policy … In Russia there are still many people who are considering a policy level or even XX XIX century. But there are people who look for a foreign policy based on the new trends … Sannikov said on Russian TV channels and on the return of the white-red-white flag and the strengthening of the constitutional status of the Belarusian language … We will organize the area in the autumn, to achieve real elections, not just go get 20% of the Lukashenka and declare that I am the leader of the pro-European forces.
Drakakhrust: Ales, last year Milinkevich created BNB to separate "clean" and the "unclean", real probelorusskie, patriotic, pro-European forces of the pro-Russian, from those who make a geopolitical choice in favor of the East. In the current situation, in the current conflict, so you can understand he opts for Lukashenko, as the guarantor of the independence and in a certain sense — the European choice?
Lahvinets: First, I would not have used the words "clean" and "unclean." I would speak about definite and indefinite. Certain combined on the basis of values and openly say that only the European Belarus has a chance to exist as an independent state. These forces say they are ready to take into account Russia's interests, if they do not conflict with ours. In Russia and our interest — to Belarus was developed civilized country.
In the current conflict between Lukashenko and the Kremlin, our position is very clear and understandable. We understand that today Moscow is guided by its purely opportunistic reasons, if it is against Lukashenko, she wants to release it to achieve their own, she wants to set up here their political clients, regardless of the presence of Lukashenko in power would continue to pursue the Russian interests in Belarus. It is quite clear that Moscow's policy has not changed over the past 16 years.
You can not go into the narrow confines of the dilemmas that you have set: Lukashenko — the guarantor of independence, but Moscow — a threat to her. It is necessary to go beyond these limits. Here I will give a very good analegiyu.U 1995 part of our liberal opposition de facto supported Lukashenko on the language issue.
Today, we are not going to support Lukashenko in his struggle with Moscow, as we see other things, where are our national interests and where Lukashenko was a complete failure. The first is the alignment of the normal, pragmatic, and most importantly transparent relations with Russia, and secondly — is the use of our European chance. 16 years of Lukashenka has shown that he is not able to take advantage of the European and the last chance opportunity in the form of the "Eastern Partnership", he also spent.
The current head of state is not able to guarantee the national interest, and it is a balancing act between all this and in the end leads to a huge threat to our independence.
Drakakhrust: Alexander, the assumption that the company is "Tell the Truth" — Russian project, expressed so often that in itself has become a fact of social life, no matter where in campaign funds really are. But in line with our discussion reminded rhetorically campaign leader Vladimir Neklyaeva: Why tell the truth for the Russian money badly? What do you think? And by the way
— and the Russians for their money did not ask?
Fyaduta: First of all, I do not know and who are going to ask the Russians for their money, because I know very well that the little money that the company is "Tell the truth," they do not belong to Russians.
As for the answer to the rhetorical question Vladimir Prokopyevich Neklyaeva — why tell the truth for the Russian money is bad, but for the U.S. — right? Must always speak the truth. Russia now says, half-truths: it says that the disappeared people that Lukashenko a dictator, but it does not say why this might happen and why has she never noticed. Therefore
those who did not believe Russia, have reason not to believe her now.
But what happens in the Belarusian-Russian relations today does give us a chance. Who would whatsoever sought: either Russia Lukashenko changes, or changes in the geopolitical paradigm Lukashenko and attempts to go to the West — neither in Russia, nor without the help Lukashenko Belarusian democratic opposition, neither one nor the other will not work. And therefore we must do everything to us now without anything happening, so we really influence the process. And in order to influence, we must be strong and must be uniform, it is necessary to develop common positions, of which we are all going.
In my view, these three theses. This sovereignty, democracy, and it is a Belarusian. For all other inquiries can be argued.
Drakakhrust: But what about this new situation can be practically used? As the saying goes, Moscow does not trust tears. Here, for example, a political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev believes that the opposition to come to Moscow, "do not have a soul is nothing but ambition." And they can bring there, but ambitions and tears to bring such that Moscow is interesting and that they do not mind to offer?
Fyaduta: The first thing that today are most interested in Russia — it is a different format and a different language of agreements on political language, the language of the generals, Russia is beginning to shift to the language of commerce. And I must agree. There must be some conception, which is still in Belarus without Russia can not exist, and that there may be. And the fact that without Russia can not exist, you need to try to sell Russia as expensive as possible. But that can not exist without Russia, to keep up until it can exist.
Need agreed concept of democratic forces about the proposals that we can make Russia.
Ivashkevich: Belarus needs to integrate into the global economic system. For this it needs capital, technology and trade ties.
And so we need to negotiate with business partners in Russia, and with business partners from Europe and the USA. And try to find the most profitable option, putting it a rule that should not be dependent on others. The search for these balance — it should be a general line of new leadership.
If Mr. Sannikov said that Russia — this is our general partner and at the same time we seek to enter the European Union, with the general's point of view, it is absurd and contrary to each other. As part of the business of understanding it is compatible options.
Ukraine's new president at every meeting of the government raises the question of how the plan is executed integration into Europe. On the other hand, he has concluded trade agreements with Russia by downloading their enterprises by Russian orders. However, he does not introduce Russian language as the state and the government said in Ukrainian. Remains the policy of supporting Ukrainian culture, although it does not have the "krychashchaga" character.
This shows that Belarus can fit into the system, and if a good business with Russia, and Belarus' accession to the EU. Via Belarus to the European Union and the Russians will be able to get new opportunities in Europe.
This approach allows us to defend the interests of Belarus and do not slide into dependency on someone.
Drakakhrust: Ales, where it has got to? For many years, said that Russia — a threat to the independence of Belarus that Russia is pursuing a steady plan for economic capture of Belarus, taking control of its key businesses and industries. And now with the words of colleagues that this is — a normal country, part of a globalized world. So what's wrong with Russia? Or with colleagues happened?
Lahvinets: We have a habit of error wishful thinking. And then it is obvious. Today we need a realistic assessment of the situation in Belarus. Belarus — it is an authoritarian country, very economically dependent on Russia. Russia today is not
see Belarus as an independent country and an equal partner, even Lukashenko she does not see an equal partner. With that, he spent a long time playing with Russia and only now stopped doing it.
Today is a chance — it is to get support from the people, to show that the European way of development — it is filled with real content of our independence, it is geopolitical pluralism. Russia is already present, it is very powerful. Games with Russia without a clear, massive support from the people is very dangerous.
The state of our society shows that the queue to Moscow will always be the question of its quality and insecurity of the game. Mr. Suzdaltsev correct in his assessment. Today travel to Moscow to negotiate the wide business projects can be. But if today we have no national unity, these games are very dangerous. And so the question arises — are we able to offer another model today Belarus, able to draw in Belarus normal relations with Western countries. After all, it is the lack of relations with Western countries is a complete failure of Lukashenko's policy and a threat to our national security.
Sovereignty, as said Mr. Fyaduta is made up of many things. This diversification of the economy and the possibility of pluralistic investment, not only Russian. Today Belarus is so weak that if fully liberalize the economy, it will be bought up on the vine Russia.
As for the Belarusian, then it can only exist in a European dimension. And no matter how hard it is to admit, Lukashenko is the personification of the Belarusian, but with a minus sign. To change the sign, it is necessary to construct it by European standards.
Then it will guarantee language, then there will be the democratic rules of the game. This sample democratic Russia is not our shows.
Therefore it is necessary to answer now, not carry on then the answer to the question of how we want to continue to develop our country.
Drakakhrust: Ales, in your opinion, is there already in the Belarusian election "pack" the rate of Moscow? Some of the media, not the least is called the name of Andrei Sannikov. Another is that it Yaroslav Romanchuk, who this week was awarded a conversation with Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. Someone "hand of Moscow" is seen from behi
nd Vladimir Neklyaeva. So one of them? Or anyone else? Or no?
Lahvinets: Russia started trying to play on different fields in Belarus. Previously, she was trying to do everything by Lukashenko, now she's trying to do the steps and gestures in the other direction. Who is this candidate, which will be made some support, today we can not say. There are a lot of vague, uncertain things, including in relation to the three people you mentioned. Any questions, because they do not understand the final strategy, it is not clear what they want to achieve. The fact that Russia will act in a way — yes. Who will be this one, or several, that will work in close cooperation with Russia, we can not say specifically. But what can be or is already happening, it looks very likely.
Fyaduta: As for getting the support of the people, support people, I do not understand, Mr. Lahvinets really do not know the results of all the polls, according to which Russia is not perceived as an enemy of the Belarusians? The more hostile you feel about it,
the more you lose support. If we are representative of the most radical nationalist forces — the Belarusian Popular Front — Mr. Ivashkevich said that Russia must trade and negotiate, it suggests that certain shifts in consciousness did occur.
As for the attacks at the pro-Russian. It turns out that all those who do not Milinkevich, they are pro-Russian. Everyone who has money is not from Milinkevich, the pro-Russian. I do not know where this idea who was holding a payment order signed by Putin or any Russian oligarch.
Now there is something that everyone dreamed of five years ago — that the Russian TV finally tells the truth about the missing. So what? We now again, as in the famous fairy tale, shouting: "Wolf, wolf!" Do not cry, it is necessary to consider how to use it.
And we must do away with the charges of each other. After first walk on the sidelines and tell that Sannikov and Nekljaev pro-Russian, and then write the paper without the signature of the embassies that Sannikov and Nekljaev pro-Russian, and then subscribe to even be that Sannikov Nekljaev and already Romanchuk — pro-Russian.
Lahvinets: Lahvinets: We do not view Russia as an enemy, we regard Russia as a very important and influential in the country of Belarus, the influence of which can be dangerous for our independence. In Russia it is necessary to establish normal relations transparent. No one said that Russia is our enemy and that we shall always fight it. Our greatest enemy — is the current state of society.
As for the protest action and support of people, it is very well read a lot of their own sites, which are very well moderated to believe in its exclusive role. But if, as has been aptly observed reporters Bi-Bi-Si, most of my friends are abroad, not in Belarus, such PR campaigns look very much out of touch with real life in Belarus. Our task — to fight for his commitment to the society. We strive to represent himself after Belarus and what steps you need to do to achieve that Belarus.
Today we need to be defined and on sources of support and how we interact with various partners. Alexander Fyaduta, we must face the truth — Today Russia has a huge impact, and all the games with the Russians may end very badly. In 1994, all were united against the "greatest evil" — Vyacheslav Kebich. And popped "the devil-the-box." And different people have made efforts to ensure that such features appear. No warranties now, given the state of society, which pops up the next "hell-box", which will be even worse than the current situation.