The generosity of Beltransgaz

Russia is considering the acquisition of a controlling stake in Beltransgaz providing financial assistance to Belarus, said today, "Interfax" a source in the government of the Russian Federation.

Commenting on the statement of Alexander Lukashenko that Moscow will present Minsk credit support in the amount of $ 6 billion, the source stressed: "We are talking about the possibility of the loan up to $ 1 billion from the EurAsEC Anti-Crisis Fund and the acquisition of a controlling stake Beltransgaz to Gazprom."

Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that Russia does not intend to represent Belarus a loan from its own resources. "We see only the credit of the EurAsEC," — said Kudrin.

He also said that in 2011 the Anti-Crisis Fund of the Eurasian Economic Community of Belarus may be granted a loan of $ 1 billion, and a? The same amount — in 2012 and 2013.

In early April, Belarus declared its possible sale of a 50 percent government stake in OAO "Beltransgaz".

"Gazprom" for the years 2007-2010. purchased 50% of shares of "Beltransgaz" a $ 2.5 billion deal was based on conducted in late 2006, ABN Amro Bank estimates the market value of assets, "Belstransgazu" in the amount of $ 5 billion

Comment by Yuri Drakakhrust:

Last week, Russian Ambassador Alexander Surikov, Russia voiced a desire to gain full control of Beltransgaz as per the wishes of the allocation of credit.

By the way he had said that the deal is unlikely to happen any time soon. But it is possible that circumstances hastened its conclusion. Or money, which now happily said Lukashenko, will also appear soon.

It is worth quoting some arithmetic calculations.

Half of Beltransgaz Gazprom paid earlier than 2.5 billion dollars. Now Kudrin promised This year, billion of the anti-crisis fund. Perhaps Gazprom is ready to buy a significant part of almost the entire package of shares in Beltransgaz Belarusian state, depending on the application Lukashenko talking about 2.1 billion dollars.

Then Gazprom will have a 92% stake in Beltransgaz — 50% acquired earlier and 42% now.

As to the three billion that Lukashenko said Russia will provide Belarus with future deliveries of Belarusian goods, this scheme looks a little hand-written on water. I remember a similar scheme, under which China allegedly gave Belarus $ 15 billion. In its time around it in the official media was a lot of noise about that now no credit and no recalls.

Perhaps, as well, and with three extra billions, as reported today Lukashenko. Unless agreed to meet Russia in something.

During the said speech before last week, the Russian ambassador called a few more wishes in addition Beltransgaz — MAZ, potash plant, finally moving to the Russian ruble. Apparently, for the assignment in each of these areas Russia is ready to pay. But it seems that it is now ready to pay only for that.

During today's meeting with the President, Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich said the government intends to apply for a credit to the IMF.
This, incidentally, has advised Belarus last week and Russian Finance Minister Kudrin, explaining that Russian aid may not be enough.

But how likely do you think that Belarus will get something from the Fund?

To be honest not much. First, Russia for its assistance billed macroeconomic conditions are about the same as the IMF and Belarus refused to follow them. Lukashenko said as we throw the reforms that are destroying the reform that we need. When there was a willingness to reform could go to them when negotiating a Russian loan and not pay state property.

And the second — the fact that the final decision on the allocation of the IMF loan make an impact by representatives of shareholders of the Fund including United States and the European Union. At the current level of relations between them and the official Minsk, in the case of Western economic sanctions, it is difficult to imagine that they will support a loan for Belarus.

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