Belarus in 2011-2015 intends to increase the amount of foreign direct investment of up to $ 7 billion a year. This was stated by Prime Minister Sergei Sidorsky July 21. According to Sidorsky, the rate of foreign investment "is constantly at $ 1-1.5 billion, which, unfortunately, is not enough for effective economic development. We first introduce the measure of foreign direct investment on a net basis in the amount of up to $ 7 billion annually" .
Is it possible to multiple times to increase the amount of investment? Why is the main investor of the Belarusian economy may be China? On these and other issues in the transmission of "Examination of Freedom" meet economist Leonid Zlotnikov and director of the Mises Yaroslav Romanchuk.
Tsigankov: "The intention to radically increase foreign direct investment Belarusian government said long ago. High hopes for London Investment Forum, which was held in November 2008 — but has not brought significant positive change. Leigh now any reason to say that the investment will go? Where did Sergei Sidorsky this optimism? "
Romanchuk: "I think the only source of this optimism has an unusual heat, steady in Belarus. Overheated gentlemen in their offices. 7 billion dollars — the same amount of money, which is just not enough to pay short-term debts. Wow before August 15 can occur when large personnel search, look optimistic.
No real reason, investment plans, lines of credit no. The seventh month of the government can not give birth to a directive on liberalization. Without this directive, with no change in the attitude to investment no changes will be. "
Tsigankov: "However, the Belarusian leadership often finds an unexpected way out of the most difficult economic situations. Maybe such a withdrawal may now become Chinese vector? Called the fantastic figures — 15 billion from China … "
Zlotnikov: "It should be clarified that it is necessary to talk about the net foreign direct investment. In past years, it amounted to $ 1.5-2 billion. But how can take 6-7 billion, is unknown. Moreover, the crisis competitiveness of Belarusian enterprises decreased.
With regard to direct Chinese investment, they still were very small — 20, 50 million dollars a year. What they say about 17 billion — is not an investment, it is a line of credit. Should be valyutookupaemy projects — then the Chinese will give credit for these projects. "
Tsigankov: "And can there be such an option, for the sake of statistics, some other form of capital injections will be considered as an investment?"
Zlotnikov: "For example, in the statistics of direct investments go and privatization revenues. When will annually sell at 3-4 billion state property, it will also be considered as an investment. But I think that more than a billion a year there is nothing to receive."
Tsigankov: "A" Belaruskali "?"
Zlotnikov: "What is proposed for the 5-6 billion to sell stake, even less than 25 per cent — that, I think the Chinese know how to count money and do not go for it."
Tsigankov: "Some fear that the Chinese give money on the condition that they have to buy Chinese products and Chinese technology — and this is the last day of Western technology …"
Romanchuk: "From the point of view of commercial vein the Chinese are still give odds and Lithuanians and Poles, who also want to invest in Belarus, but they can not find good projects. What has happened to the Chinese rusty equipment, has an interesting perspective. Belarusian company, which must was to monitor the quality, not tracked it well. So now the Chinese want to hire the French, that they did it.
Let me remind you that foreign investment in Belarus already have a fairly large negative loop. Was the line of the German "Mercurius," was a line of credit from Austria, was a Czech with that loan to buy corn — and most of these projects over the commercial fiasco. Therefore, I think China will be wary of this is true, but a few hundred million more will do nothing. "
Tsigankov: "Maybe the Chinese are attracted not only an economic but also a political factor? How to write pro-government ideologues, Belarus will support China in Europe …"
Romanchuk: "When it comes to work in Europe, the Chinese have a lot of business in Europe. Find foundation in Belarus, which is not a member of the WTO, which has the status of a market economy, which does not have a free trade area with Europe — Why? to only work on the Belarusian market of 9 million customers? This is one Chinese city.
The Chinese will not invest the money under the clean politics. After all, first of all they are interested in the business — so they behave in Africa, in South America. And I do not think they are in Europe will behave differently. "
Zlotnikov: "In fact, China is interested to have a strategic partnership with at least one country in Europe. After all, he wants to be a geostrategic player. As in the time of the USSR was interested in Cuba and fed. But the Chinese are more likely to take the money.
Let me remind you that there was a line of credit from China for a billion dollars in the past two years. But not scraped together a project to completely choose this billion. The fact that the Belarusian government proposes to implement infrastructure projects, it is not realistic. In fact, such projects can not be implemented in such a quick time to become attractive to lending. "