Maybe the Earth is at the beginning of a new ice age: the activity of the Sun in 2012 and has not increased, although its current maximum is just for this year. What is now happening with the sun, compared to the so-called Maunder and Dalton minima in the XVII-XIX centuries, which coincided with a sharp decline in global temperatures. However, the link the Earth's climate and solar activity is not yet proven.
Since the middle of XVIII century observatory in Zurich began regular study of solar activity. Cycle, which scientists have begun monitoring, was named the first solar cycle. Accordingly, since then have been 23 cycles, and now we're in the middle of a new, 24-second cycle, which is very puzzling.
Graph of solar activity since the beginning of continuous monitoring. One can see all the 23 solar cycles / / spaceweather.com
A maximum of 23 second cycle occurred in 2001, and it is easy to see that the next maximum can be expected in 2012. Estimated minimum
But by August 15, 2012, it stopped growing and fell below the level of last year.
The current view of the sun (left; SDO Observatory image obtained August 14, 2012) and the view of the sun near the high of the previous solar cycle (right, the picture is an observatory SOHO July 15, 2000) / / tesis.lebedev.ru
Current level of activity is four times lower than the maximum values recorded during the 260 years of continuous observations of the Sun, and only a few percent higher than the last time they failed solar activity — Dalton minimum in 1790-1830, respectively. These conclusions follow from the solar flare activity and the analysis of the Wolf numbers — the main method of measuring and describing cycles of solar activity.
Unexpected lull Sun in 2008-2009 led to a number of predictions about the characteristics of future solar maximum, of which it was possible to distinguish at least two contrasting scenarios.
In the first scenario, the Sun should release each cycle approximately equal to the total amount of energy. Accordingly, if the solar activity was depressed for a few years, then in the following years the rate of energy must compensate for this gap, we have to be much higher than average. On this basis, it was expected that the growth phase of a new cycle will be unusually rapid, with,
The second scenario is based on the observation that in the history of the study of the sun it was never recorded extremely high highs.
In this case, however, there were at least two very deep downturn. The former was measured directly: it is mentioned so-called Dalton minimum in which the sun was at its fifth and sixth cycles
Despite the apocalyptic messages of different media on the 2012 end of the world, who will come after
But more likely is the second scenario — extremely weak solar cycle, the comparable level with a minimum of Dalton.
Thus, the maximum monthly Wolf number
Over a low solar cycles for 260 years was observed.
Thus, the Sun while not yet passed into the state of the new global fault activity
According to Professional laboratory X-ray astronomy of the Sun LPI,
critical to the understanding of where our star is moving to become the second half of this year. For her it is clear to see if the upward trend of the Sun or our star frozen at current levels, or even start to fall even lower.
Speaking about the latest news related to the sun, we should note an interesting structure, which was observed in the last few days: a thin dark structure with jagged edges, at first glance very similar to crack.
Actually, this structure has become another opportunity for some media to write another pugalku about doomsday and entitle her terrible name in style
The fact that the Sun is not a solid body, and being the object of a gas can not be cracked, for some reason none of the authors had not thought of sensational.
The nature of the crack is not a riddle for Astrophysics. It is dark
Category: Watching the sun and solar anomalies