Society members: economists Sergei Chaly andSergei Balykin.
The political motivation of economic decisions
Valery Karbalevich"The presence of multiple exchange rate of the ruble (experts say about three or four) causes a wave of criticism and a number of proposals to move to a single rate. Technically, this can be done easily and quickly. But NBU related political decision to be made at the top. Obviously, Lukashenko considering this situation is not out of the economic and political motives. What is the meaning of these motives? Lukashenko is afraid of devaluation and artificially creates the appearance of her absence? "
Sergei Chaly"We must go back in March, to understand the logic of the authorities. They sought to correct the negative balance of payments. According to them, as is the lack of currency, reduced imports. Retaining the official rate of exchange on for critical imports, which is important for the public, and release rate on the interbank market, the authorities pretend that this course does not have a relationship — they say, it's the speculators. We calculated the difference between these rates is small, and the population will not notice this shy devaluation. However, the population is said, the beginning of a foray into the exchangers, bought 800 million dollars.
Sergei Balykin"It is the policy ostrich that hides its head in the sand. Trying to ignore the problem, the authorities aim to create the illusion of stability. For the sake of this illusion of power and keep the official rate.
In addition, the official exchange rate remains in order to buy the currency at a low price, buy critical imports and have the ability to repay the old loans. But this additional tax for exporters. "
Why government can not go to a single track?
Karbalevich"If the original plans could not be realized, there was a stir around the currency, then why the authorities did not want to adjust their policies in this area? '.
Roan"This is a difficult question. In late March, there was a session of the National Bank, and the votes are there in half. Half was in favor of devaluation and the transition to a single exchange rate. A half supported the maintenance of a situation with multiple exchange rates.
A variety of courses — a tool receiving rental income (let's not call it corruption). There is a list it is unclear how adbiranyh National Bank of entities that can buy currency at the official rate. They can sell it on the interbank market and make a profit.
The fear of devaluation — is from the field of psychology, not politics or economics. National Bank remembers how he struggled with panic six months after the devaluation of 2009
Recently, it was decided to gradually let go of course to the cash market. However, the currency in exchange did not appear. This is a bad decision. After all, if still interbank rate grew by about $ 100 a day, then after that decision was sharply accelerated growth.
Obviously, there is a mechanism for cross-flow between the markets of cash and non-cash currency. This is done through the "black market", a small business. The mechanism began to operate in full-scale and without the involvement of the authorities. "
Balykin"National Bank is an independent institution. He is totally dependent on the president. According to my information, the National Bank offered a reasonable solution.
The issue of the exchange rate is very painful for Lukashenko. He has made the implementation of its promises to pay $ 500 of the average salary. And with the devaluation of the dollar salary falls down. Therefore, for the sake of the illusion of stability and the official exchange rate is maintained. National Bank can not persevere, to object to President. Its leaders do not want to lose their jobs. "
More minuses than pluses
Karbalevich"G. Roan, you said that the government initially set the task to reduce imports to correct the negative balance of payments. Do it? "
Roan"In many ways possible. But caused a negative impact. There was a trade deficit, and on consumer goods (for example, pampersy). It was found that producers who do not use import almost there. If you want to buy overseas small component, and currency can not be found, then stopped all production. Restricting imports was due to the termination of a large part of the real sector. It was officially announced that the work lost 600,000 people. In fact — twice. "
Karbalevich"As a result of what happened. The authorities did everything to avoid devaluation. Finally, the de facto devaluation took place. Plus a number of other negative consequences: economic recession, unemployment, inflation. Why Lukashenko failed to explain that the disadvantages of such a policy is more than the pros? . "
Roan"We do not know that Lukashenko advised his entourage. But some of the circumstantial evidence, we can conclude that it does not convey the whole truth. After all, the fate of the messenger who brings bad news, sad. For example, Lukashenko said that he Myasnikovich reported, since the beginning of the year stocks reduced by 25%. However, the Ministry of Statistics shows that they have grown by 38%.
Now the authorities face a difficult political and psychological selection. To remedy the situation, one must admit that the current economic situation is the result of irresponsible macroeconomic policies in 2010 (the artificial stimulation of growth of gross domestic product, growth in wages). Authorities do not understand that the faster growing tree, the greater the balance of payments deficit.
However, the authorities accuse of currency crisis is a population that buys cars, the importer, the exporter, the bezgaspadarchasts business leaders. Mnozhnasts exchange rate is very harmful to the economy. In the 1990s, this led to the destruction of the system of cash flow. "
Balykin"It is difficult to comment on the decisions that are fastened on psychological complexes. But it is clear that the situation is now getting worse. The more difficult decision is delayed, the worse will be the consequences. "