According to the decree of Alexander Lukashenko extraordinary session of the House of Representatives is to open on September 7. Or assign this session date for the presidential election? Whether they take place in early December? What motives guided power, appointing the election date?
Members: the chief editor of the online newspaper "Solidarity" Alexander Starykevich and political scientist Yuri Chausov.
Or assign this session date for the presidential election?
Valery Karbalevich"The official explanation of an extraordinary session on September 7 unconvincing. Like, urgently need to adopt the draft budget for next year to make changes to the Tax and Budget Codes. Moreover, the state media were silent this event, the decree almost secretive. Whether to appoint to the session date for the presidential the election? "
Alexander Starykevich"It depends on the current political situation. Lukashenko will make a decision closer to the September 7, depending on whether first of all, as will the relations with Russia."
Yuri Chausov"Yes, finally the election date has not been set. This is indirectly confirmed the situation with the Belarusian People's Assembly. Until July 1, is planned to define measures for its implementation. But so far there is no information about it.
September 7 can assign multiple options of dates. The most likely time — it's 12 or December 19. But maybe later. "
But when they vote?
Karbalevich"If to be announced date of the presidential election, which it will be the date? Logical to assume that the election will be announced earlier than planned — not in February, and in December. Otherwise, why would collect the special session?"
Starykevich"This is the most likely option, but not the only one. On New Year are expected to conflict with Russia in terms of oil and gas supplies for next year. Therefore it is better to hold elections before. Indeed, if the gas will cost $ 250 per 1 thousand cubic meters in the New Year as threatened, "Gazprom", this unfavorable background for the election. "
Chausov"You can not say that the purpose of the election of December — a significant approximation. As this transfer from January to December.
This is a convenient time and in terms of neutralizing opposition rallies. After December 19 on October Square alone will stand Christmas tree. And this is a definite obstacle to protest. "
Starykevich"If the elections will be held on December 19, it is favorable to the authorities and from the point of view of international reaction. Europe is entering a period of Christmas holidays. Therefore, the relevance of the EU issue of fraud in the presidential election in Belarus is lost."
Karbalevich"At first, authorities announced (and Yarmoshina and Lukashenko), the election will be in early February. Now, with the start of the information war with Russia, the elections are carried on not one, but two months earlier (from the beginning of February to the beginning of December). This will mean that Lukashenko was frightened. Such an image — is unprofitable in the eyes of nomenclature. Why not show that I am not afraid, and call an election when it was promised? "
Starykevich"In 2006, elections were scheduled for 4 months ahead of schedule. But that does not negatively affect his image. And that Lukashenko promised one thing and doing another, then you never know what he was saying for 16 years."
The date of the election and the opposition
Karbalevich"As an earlier date for the elections will influence the opposition?"
Starykevich"Basically — no way. Course, if the elections will be held later, the time for the company to be a little more. However, the problems in the unwillingness of the opposition to the election. She had to start the campaign immediately after the end of the previous presidential election in 2006. But the opposition was in a state of lethargic bedtime. So now a month earlier or later, little has changed. "
Chausov"Tactical influences, and strategically — no. Could say that the opposition and began preparations for this presidential campaign immediately after the previous one. March 25, 2006, it was announced on the area of recording the movement" For Freedom. "Then there was the Congress of Democratic Forces split UDF, participation in elections to the House of Representatives. This is all done with a focus on the presidential election. "
Starykevich"I would not consider the Congress of Democratic Forces, UDF split as preparation for the presidential elections. This infighting, which had no impact on the electorate."