Radio Liberty: Why have recognized the independence of Kosovo, dozens of countries, almost half of the UN, and Abkhazia and South Ossetia — but Russia Venesuela and Nicaragua and the island of Vanuatu. Why Russia is in such isolation on this issue?
Dubnov: Kosovo managed global experiment to create a world from scratch. The world was ready to apply for the sovereignty of a little bit different, and the former Yugoslavia was the best opportunity to overcome the age-old barrier. The world has been forced to take responsibility for Kosovo, even if he wanted her to lose, it would not have succeeded. This is not true for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as this area of responsibility is not clear who and why is unclear.
In Kosovo, at least understand why and what for were made errors.
On the other hand, in my opinion deserve the independence of Abkhazia, has proved its efficiency is not less than Kosovo. In the same sense, has shown himself capable Karabakh, in contrast to South Ossetia and Transnistria.
Neither the world nor Russia are not able to look at the situation from the point of view of the objective nature — from the point of view of a single criterion, or legal capacity or that education.
This is a political issue. And that is why Abkhazia was in such a sad role. I believe that if it were not for the events of 2008, Abkhazia had chances after 5 years if you do not get recognition, to teach the world to its independent existence. Now, Abkhazia was on this side of the fence. And although, in fact, is the formation of (I will not say the state) has been open to the world, and now it pryrechanae to fault Russia, that she was not happy.
RL: In the 2 years did not happen a few events that in August 2008 looked very likely, if not inevitable.
Mikhail Saakashvili has lost power, despite the crushing defeat and heavy pressure from inside and outside.
Fighting has resumed.
Russia does not formally included Abkhazia and South Ossetia in its composition.
Why do these events have not occurred?
Dubnov: Maybe at the level of narrow-minded these events and expected, but …
Saakashvili's political situation then won. By the surge in Georgia used to the fact that the territories lost in the polls significance of this problem was in the second ten priorities of the Georgian society. In addition, all models of power of the kind that set Saakashvili, the opposition is simply ridiculous.
Why not place a new war? Because in August, all parties fulfill their local problems, and the continuation of the military phase is not part of their plans.
Georgia, showing the front line, to show the world who's who. But Russia without that crossed the boundaries of what is possible and what is not, and it was pointless to expect that it will go further Leninagorski area.
What about joining the Russian Federation — the very fact of recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was a very painful step for Moscow and went for it, because in that situation do anything else was not. I do not think that Russia has done it with great pleasure, but do not do this step after the war was impossible.
It was abroad as a foreign policy and a political point of view. Moscow and so has provided a lot of problems in South Ossetia. As for Abkhazia, incorporating it into the Russian Federation, we got a couple of years to a region with a strong separatist tendencies.
Radio Liberty: Then in August, many painted an apocalyptic picture: the use of the Russian forces in Transnistria, in the Crimea. Next — everywhere. That did not happen. Maybe Russia has made certain conclusions?
Dubnov: I would like the Russian made these conclusions. As for the reaction of the society now, 2 years after the war, it is difficult to
assess. We applauded the victory of Russian arms in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and now also unanimously in favor of building a wall around the North Caucasus. The Company does not evaluate the situation logically, it assesses the situation from the point of view of the stereotypes that contradict each other.
In addition, Abkhazia and North Ossetia do not care about people. They are worried about two years ago in terms of anti-Westernism and anti-Americanism. That is to say, in August 2008 we won the Americans, Russia has risen from its knees. But This topic does not live long. But 2 years later it turned out that they had received in the form of the South Ossetia region of theft, which we have and without it a lot. Well Abkhazia is a beautiful country, you can relax, but of little use and it does not. Lost relevance. The pride of victory gone, but something else has come.