The official part of the war in Libya is over, world public opinion has shifted to the problem of Syria, "Iranian nuclear threat", but with all this left a lot of questions related to the future of this North African country. In the middle of the main problems of modern Libya — is the future municipal system, the problem of financing the construction of the modern state system, the problem of the formation of the modern state army, the problem of compensation for their expenses by NATO countries.
Only the United States, according to official figures had spent on the Libyan campaign around 1 billion dollars, and England even more — 2.7 billion dollars. Overall, the North Atlantic contract, according to a number of professionals, "buried" in the sands of Libya around 168 billion dollars. It is based on the fact that every day the Libyan war costing taxpayers West at 12-14 million U.S. dollars, without spending on humanitarian aid deliveries guns, ammunition, carrying out various kinds of secret special operations and other expenses.
With all of this in the West are trying to underestimate the numbers that are different in different sources. The reason yavna — NATO countries are not experiencing the very best economic times, in almost all important elections will be held soon, almost all of the country shrouded in social protests of varying activity. For many politicians, not only the opposition, and the current intensive push for the idea of "compensation." Allegedly, the new Libyan authorities to make the Western countries this campaign to pay for the "humanitarian aid" in the form of raids and intelligence operations. It is clear that the topic is very putrid, so try not to advertise it, reduce it to the level of the "deal between business entities." Practically, we litsezreem as Westerners make the scope of the "struggle for the freedom of other nations" in a very lucrative business.
One of the channels through which the West gets its own gesheft are "frozen" assets of the Libyan Jamahiriya. At the current time, unknown to clear the blocked money figure Libya. Call the number from 80 to 168 billion U.S. dollars. It is interesting that the latter figure apparently "accidentally" coincides with the cost of the West in the war. News agencies are reporting on unfreezing Libyan monetary assets since the summer of this year, so, in August, the Security Council (UNSC) decided to "liberate" the 1.5 billion dollars of assets of the Gaddafi regime in the banks of the United States. European countries supported the decision. But in reality, the picture was not that of the blessed for the new Libyan authorities, it seemed. The Europeans have agreed to unfreeze and transfer Tripoli least 2-3 billion a year. Thus, in November 2011 it was officially unfrozen assets worth 15 billion dollars. British and South American banks thawed 3 billion bucks, Italian — 2600000000, French — 2200000000, German — 1 billion, the Dutch — 700,000,000 etc. It turns out that even this money will only Libya in the next 5-7 years. Unless, of course, there is not going to happen a new cataclysm that will allow re-freeze the payment.
West almost pulled the plug the new Libyan authorities — thawed a small part of Libyan assets, but even they have to be earned. The new Libyan government has to solve a complicated puzzle — the usual survival of the population who should get water and feed, to provide simple industrial products. At the moment, Tripoli selling gold in store, which accumulated by Gaddafi. Only in November sold 20 tons of the precious metal — gold is 20% of the country's Stores. In other words, if gold will be sold at the same rate then, Libya will not last even until the summer. And then what? Seek loans from the West, getting into debt bondage? And this is just one of the consequences of the Libyan war that destroyed enough highest standard of living of the Libyan population.
It is unclear what the Westerners in the upcoming soften its attitude to the assets of an old Libya. Some of the money will just disappear like lost 1.3 billion dollars Vkladyvatelnogo fund Muammar Gaddafi, who "lost" big-name "Golden Sacks". In the West, from the very beginning of this civilization conversation with a weak and do not have their own "Colt" is very small. Also in Washington, London, Paris, Brussels understand that the future of Libya today are very vague. Belief in a measured and progressive development of the country (as in Gaddafi) No, even faster on the contrary, is the world outlook, underpinned by significant arguments that Libya threatened new step of the war, which could lead to the collapse of the country and even heavy casualties among the population. Already at this point there is a struggle between different tribes, clans, military groups with the use of guns for spheres of influence, sources of income. November 26 the new prime minister of the country — Abdel Rahim al-Kiba — almost wiped out, accompanied by his group was attacked in a suburb of the capital, two people were killed and five were wounded. And just Belhadj was arrested at the airport in Tripoli and held for several hours in custody.
Another part of the funds Westerners planning to get through production and sale of hydrocarbons. EU countries have strict line of separation between the trenches of the frozen accounts and rassredotachivaniem mining concessions and rassredotachivanie oil and natural gas. Meanwhile, the Libyan Transitional Council of State, to all appearances, has promised very many Westerners. West always knew how to "separate" the debtors, this game was invented specifically there. Even during the war was the news that the NTC has promised to Paris, which played a very active role in the middle of the West, 35% share in oil production. The English VITOL received from the Transitional Council guarantees the transaction to sell the black gold of more than 1 billion dollars.
Another source of money for the West will be the arms market of Libya, which is very thoroughly smoothed by bombing and looting of arsenals (it involved gangs, Islamists, ordinary residents). Latest Libya will be virtually the full range of tools, from heavy weapons for the Air Force, Air Defense, Navy, Army to small tools, communications equipment, ammunition, etc. Plus the significant need for the training of military professionals, the restoration of the military infrastructure (airports, military bases and etc.). This is a billion and a billion dollars (euros, rubles …). France and England in August Transitional Council have promised to "do everything very possible" in order to pay the rather short time to lift the embargo on the supply of weapons to the Libyan government.
The problem of creation of new armed forces and the threat of modern war
In the fight against the Gaddafi regime in Libya does not appear a single force that could be the basis for the modern Libyan army. Stood a few major power centers that combine 10's and even hundreds of "field units" ("brigades"), a small armed groups.
First force — is the Islamists here and members of the "Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb" (AQIM), its members still refer to the Salafis, as are supporters of Salafi movement of Islam, which calls for focus on lifestyle and faith of early Muslim community, clean modern Islam is different from innovation. They are distinguished by a serious discipline, many h
ave combat experience, there are members of the war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Chechnya. In comes AQIM organization "belligerent Islamic Group — Libya" (TIG-L), its other name — the Libyan Movement for configuration. A member of the TIG Abdelhakim Belhadj is the current military commander of Tripoli, another Islamist — Ismail al-Salabi — is in control of Benghazi, and his brother Ali al-Salabi is representative of the Libyan Movement for the configuration in the PNS. Islamists have excellent links with Qatar (on the role of Qatar, see the article VO "Qatar claims to be the regional leader"). Under the command of Belhadj about 25 thousand bayonets, and when they took Tripoli, in the ranks of Islamist groups was about 2 thousand people. Such a growth of Islamist groups, seems to be related to preparations for the newcomer round of the Libyan war. Islamists in Libya are planning to reincarnate one of the emirates of the coming of the Islamic Caliphate, and Qatar providing direct support.
There are certain links with Libyan Islamists and the Anglo-Saxons, a particular Islam was the "battering ram" of Washington and London. North Africa must blaze.
Second force — it is the men of different tribes, cities, territories, united by territorial and tribal basis. They split up, own feeble discipline, low combat capability, have massive global patrons. Their strength is that they have significant support in their own country and their troops are plentiful. Their main task (their favorites) — get their share of "Libyan cake." Among them there is a frank rabble, looters, criminal element that has caused a stir by atrocities, looting and murder. In addition, we have leaders unsatisfied ambitions, they consider themselves to be the main driving force of the "revolution." Their requests passionarnost out and will be implemented either in modern civilian war or external conflict. So, already there have been reports of sudden speeches against Algeria, which is hostile to PNS was friendly and neutral with regard to the Gaddafi regime during the Libyan war. In addition, there is information about the acres of fighters who, with the support of Turkey are going to take part in the civilian war (or its incitement) in Syria.
Third force, the not numerous — it is in the main former officers, soldiers of the former Libyan army, the security forces, who from the beginning have taken part in a riot or joined later. They have some military experience, and their commanders have the ability of tactical control, their relatively high level of discipline. Specifically, they can rely on the brand new Libyan authorities, or rather that part of it which does not see coming from Libyan Islamist. But this requires support from the West, for the formation of the modern army and weapons, which will be able to restore order in the country, "stripping" frankly criminal scum and more constructive Islamists. Forcing others to disarm and return to civilian life.
So Makarov is not to say that after the war the Western coalition and rebel against the regime of Gaddafi Libya there is peace and country goes in the direction of "democracy." The principle of "permanent revolution" (as in Egypt) prevails. Libya threatens new round of civilian war, the collapse of several local municipalities, is strengthening the position of the Islamists.