M.Delyagin: in 2012, unhurried crash continues

M.Delyagin: in 2012, a slow decline will continue

Economic Outlook for 2012

Economic actions of the past of 2011 forced every inhabitant of our country seriously worried how their savings, so just for their salaries. Stock indexes around the world then soared to a record performance, the collapses, simultaneously enriching and impoverishing the people and the whole company. The cost of gold lupila all records: having started the year with a starting position in 1420 dollars per troy ounce in September, it has exceeded the level of 1900 bucks a month and then have fallen by 300. Average price of oil over the year remained at historically highest level, surpassing the mark of 100 dollars per barrel.

Once this whole year with economic shocks have tried to cope Europe that are not caused by a small number of municipal debt problem states who have won this humiliating nickname «PIGS» — Portugal (P), Italy (I), Greece (G), Spain (S). In 2011, the euro fluctuated in the range of 39 rubles. 27 kopecks. — 43 rubles. 63 kopecks., Dollar exchange rate — in the range of 27 rubles. 26 kopecks. — 32 rubles. 68 kopecks.

Not all was well in the Russian economy. Budget 2011 IMPOSED of the average oil price of 75 dollars per barrel, and the budget deficit was due to reach 3.6 percent of GDP, but due to the fact that the average annual cost of a barrel of oil was about 108 bucks, the budget deficit is expected to be zero. This clearly shows how much our economy, and the means and the payment of salaries and pensions, up to now is dependent on commodity prices.

To understand to what we should be prepared in a brand new 2012, "Free Press" addressed the economic outlook for the physician to Economics, Director of the Institute of problems of globalization Misha Delyagin:

The European economy

— I would not expect any sudden events. In 2012, we will have some fading, but it will be quite smooth and unhurried. There will be some cramping, deterioration, improvement, scandals, tantrums, but in general, the economic slide will be smooth.

"SP": — What's Next for troubled countries?

— Their debt to finance anew to the extent that they will not destroy an old European banks. There are two aspects. First: they will be sucked out of everything that can be taken in payment of debts to the last penny. The fact that they are all still fail to pay after all the hard savings programs will be refinanced and restructured the part that will not have a devastating impact on the banking system of advanced countries. Certainly, this is not an absolute rule. I think there will be problems with the banks, which are not shown very highest specifications on the results of stress tests. It is clear that the German "Commerzbank" will help out, and whether or not to bail out the Italian global bank — we have it represented UniCredit — the big question. Since all the fact that the Italians will be enough for this resource and courage — to UniCredit funds that require senior colleagues from Europe.

But the second aspect, it is when in Europe will begin mass mess. In this aspect, the weight of each country will have its own. If France or northern Italy is quite a general strike in Greece that will need to be, say, seize and destroy the parliament and the president's residence detain them weekly. Only then send any note that not all Greek normally.

So everything is going to be very aggressive. Neither of which the development of the southern states or the Irish language will no longer be — the theme will be easy to close, but the situation will be kept under control.

"SP": — What will happen with the Baltic states?

— There's a crazy Estonians have adopted the euro, and since introduction of the euro gives Short term positive effect in Estonia will be some relief. A devaluation of there, and so no one will hold, as the Estonian government for this should contact their creditors — holders, but they are afraid of this. Because of this, they will continue to pour in, but because small country, the population fled the sharpness of the problem will be removed.

"SP": — Should I wait for the configuration of the euro upwards or downwards?

— You know, it's a lot of fun: the euro smoothly dollar plunged from 1.4 to 1.31, then the hysteria about the euro continued to fall and the euro dropping finished. I think prepyadstviya is at all times just remember the one about someone, and forgets about all the others. And the fact that the United States, Europe and China live on the principle of "Die you are now, and tomorrow I", it is no secret for two years already. Some time so they still inhabit. For example, the Chinese, according to the official forecast, in the future, the growth rate will drop to 8 percent of GDP or less. They will survive, but for all others it will be a big discrepancy. Expect any accidents, I would not. The euro will hang like a flower in the hole, as in general, and other currencies. Yuan will go up slowly and sadly. Cheapen it can not, because then stand on the middle class ears. Rapidly become more expensive, too, he can not, as it will fall economy. He will go up to the extent of the growth of China's competitiveness.

Russian Economy

"SP": — As the European crisis will affect the Russian economy?

— As this year: capital flight. What is the crisis in Europe? This reduction in interbank lending. Nobody gives each other in debt, therefore that is why I am going to lend money to this bank, if it blows up tomorrow. Because the inter-bank credit contracted, and hence a lack of liquidity. Once we have a shortage of liquidity, we have a vacuum cleaner sucking all this liquidity with the surrounding markets. A naikrupneyshy reservoir of available funds — is Russian Federation, as the cost of oil and the highest inflows large. They could invest in real modernization, but modernization and never will be, since the upgrade prevents stealing. Accordingly, we have a lot of free resources and suck in Europe. About our internal difficulties I will not even read. I wish to see that our stock market did not fall oklemalsya after the September 2011, we will have devalued the ruble — though not very much, but will.

"SP": — What are the economic processes will rule in our country?

— In our country, it happened this year. First — growth oil prices finished helping the economy. If I remember correctly, oil prices increased by 42 percent. And the growth of the economy have not changed: it was 4 percent, and there will be 4 percent. Oil has to help — point.

With all this, our economy has raschudesno feature: when the scale of theft and abuse of a monopoly position in which we live, the economic growth of less than 5 and a half percent is not acceptable, because it is not sufficient to maintain social and political stability. Principal, how much money has come into the country, in principle, that the economic growth of less than 5 and a half percent of the funds will not suffice to please the appetites of the more important groups of exposure. Such growth in our country will be no more, at least, this model of the economy.

Second law — and this is very typical — that this year's rise in oil prices and the well-being of the formal characteristics, accompanied by a fall in real incomes. Yes, for the first 11 months of the recession could go into a symbolic increase of 0.2 percent, but there are two things. In 1-x, the official inflatio
n rate is understated, which means that real incomes have decreased and, in-2, if look at the population, we can see that the maintenance of the real income of the population, or how much is a respectable level of due to the richest people in Russian Federation, at the expense of those who comes in the list of Forbes. And all the other there is a real decrease in income of the middle class and increasing number of beggars. In other words, the first — the growth of oil prices finished helping the economy as a whole, and the second — the growth of the country's income and big business is accompanied by falling incomes. This means that corruption is the model that was created by first the 2000s and worked on the principle "From each 100 bucks, 90 we take for themselves, and give you a 10" (or 60 to 40), work done. Because, relatively speaking, is now out of every $ 100 110 left to themselves, and 10 was collected from the population. And there is a third — that is very crucial for the economy, though not measured quantitatively — is a complete discredit the government. Since the demonstration of insanity scares economic actors. People understand that the tasks they face in their own business, are not something that can be corrected, and are the elements of the system that can not be corrected. And in 2012 we will have a continuation of the same process, in other words, capital flight, the extinction of business activity, bestiality monopolies, corruption crazy growth, redistribution of corruption flows under the guise of the fight against corruption and other pleasures of life. In fact for the solution to the problem would be to do what they did in the 97-years 99m Chileans and Malaysians — the "great" economic civilization — and that at the moment the British decide to do. The British at this time under the guise of discussion about that in Europe, things can be very bad, are studying the mechanisms of automatic protection against sudden influx — a sharp outflow of speculative capital. Since both the sudden influx, and a sharp outflow — that's too bad. Sudden influx leads to an excessive strengthening of the national currency and country losing competitiveness, and a sharp outflow means that the country is simply losing money. And they actually spit on the Washington Consensus, working on that in the past have made Malaysians and Chileans.

Of course, we must do the same, but our heirs Kudrin Washington Consensus did not naplyuyut. Not quite naplyuyut for children because if they do, tough people in Switzerland and in the United States may be interested in the origin of their funds, and then it will only be possible to choose between a camera and a camera in Moscow in The Hague, and it is not the fact that it is better in The Hague condition.

"SP": — If we talk about the common people, they will continue faileth?

— Yes, there will be more of the same. We have the same for the second half of next year, things are planned very enchanting. For example, the reform of the budget organizations. This means a significant increase in service charges for the budget conscious. In other words, the purchasing power of the money that we are getting now, and I hope we will receive in the coming year, will decrease. That will not happen as prices rise, as well as the fact that at the moment we are given free of charge, will be given for the funds. If we have at the moment for something to pull a bribe of a thousand rubles, and someone pays it, and some do not, then the next year we will all have to pay it, if this is not a thousand and two thousand, so as it will be the official price.

"SP": — For example?

— For example, the history of vehicle inspection, when did the legal fee that was superior to what had previously been paid under the table. If you previously did not want to pay a bribe, stood in line, felt humiliated and insulted, but you had the choice of the means or the time. And at the moment I do not have such a choice. Another example that has raised all duties: a passport, to divorce, passport, etc.

On the other hand, there raschudesno pay reform in the economical sphere. We all have learned by heart by heart, that the wages of state employees are always rising. So here's where it really picked up, it is accompanied by the configuration method of calculating the salary when deciding who gets how much, in fact, is given full control arbitrariness. Where it is made, we litsezreem bouncing income of the administrative staff, and, God forbid, the preservation of the same, or even falling incomes of those who work specifically and respectively feral scream. And we have these people who lost their heads revenues will come and they will take with us all that they deem necessary and just.

"SP": — These are the people which professions?

— Teachers, doctors, librarians. As we will shake the librarians, I do not know, but oh so we will have to shake the doctors and teachers, I imagine perfectly.

Next step: we have very many areas of cost-efficient financing took off to the regional level. For example, funding for the ambulance, and the regions of adequate funds are not received. Moscow is indifferent, the Moscow authorities have a lot of money and have already announced that the wages of doctors ambulances will be 84 thousand. I do not believe it, but let's say. Oh, God forgive me, in the Tver region, which means there was not and will not be for reasons other than impartial idiotic economical policy? In other words, will the destruction of some life-support systems that are still running, and which is traditionally used to, what they are, as they should be. And there will be many aspects. I'm not saying that God forbid, to the 1st September will have time to introduce new standards of education, when you come to school and find that chemistry, physics and biology for the funds, and not just astronomy, because who needs astronomy? But there is a law of God, or ethics. Unfortunately, there is a formal specification that if the ancestors want to ethics, it is still in some of the schools should be the law of God.

"SP": — What will happen to the price of housing?

— From the 1st of January, they will increase slightly, as they grow only at the expense of the appetites of local monopolies, and only there, where they will drive does not. But from July 1, everything will be as usual, and I think that even with a vengeance, as natural monopolies zahochut recover lost profits for themselves across the year.

"SP": — What do you think about Putin's words, that the growth of payments for housing will not exceed the scale of inflation?

— If Putin referred to a snow-white ribbon condom from a snow-white ribbon in the condom is not reincarnated. Similarly, the rates will not rise in the scale of inflation. Another thing is that if inflation is at 6.5 per cent means from July 1, tariffs on utilities could grow by 12 percent and per year, they will be 6.5. This can be done, but it can be done a maximum of twice — in the middle of 2012 and into 2013 ohms. In 2014, the year it will be impossible, as the appetites of natural monopolies — something very hard, it can not do anything.

In order to increase utility tariffs came to human level, it is necessary to provide for them is very hard monetary control. And if you provide tight control over public utilities, it means to fight the theft, and to fight the theft of means to undermine the base of the municipal building. I can not exclude the possibility that Putin will it, but then it has to be Ivan the Terrible or Alexander II the Liberator — something like that. Not a top manager of medium type, and municipal figure, but as long as the person does not show any signs of this metamorphosis: wiggles eyebrows, hints, but does not show real signs.

"SP": — What will happen to the price of oil?

— It does not come down, as all the important countries pour money into the
ir economies to keep them afloat, as we currently teetering on the brink of depression. The global crisis — when commercial demand shrinks and must somehow make up for the increase in municipal demand. Funds flow into the economy, respectively, they will surely penetrate through his fingers and onto a different kind of speculative markets, and the means — and the oil. Our gold is cheaper, and oil is still cheaper.

"SP": — By the way, what will happen to gold?

— I do not think it will be 10 thousand dollars per troy ounce, but can reach two thousand. May fall to 1500 — it all depends on a very large number of reasons.

"SP": — What will be the inflation rate in 2012?

— I think that the official will be approximately 7 percent, but the real 2-2.5 times higher.

"SP": — Finally, do you think, how much the development of all these processes will last crisis in such a sluggish?

— I think that for the next year The stores still have enough strength at all — and we and the world — and then guessing is not worth it.

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