M. Hazin: The world economy remained steady life of six months

M. Hazin: The world economy remained quiet life of six months

The supplies will be enough strength exactly to the U.S. presidential election if the war had not happened in Iran

The last few days in the U.S. and in the world of speculative markets are falling. Such a reaction of the stock market, coupled with the drop in prices for natural resources, according to the views of analysts, followed by the recognition of the economic downturn in Europe and the contradiction between the parties on the exchange of Greek debt. With all of this in the U.S. declined in virtually all sectors of the stock market, and have become favorites of the building and the creation of construction materials (-3.148%), car industry (-3.582%) and banking (-2.916%). Blue chips than Intel (0,264%), also fell. Favorites drop — Citigroup Inc (-4,545%), American Intl Group Inc (-4,536%), Alcoa Inc (-3,854%). The broad S & P 500 only for yesterday's day fell by 1,537%, the Dow Jones — by 1,571%, NASDAQ — at 1.361%.

With all this economy EU in fact has decreased quite uncritically — at the level of 0.3% on the quarter and 0.7% in annual terms. The volume of exports decreased to 0.4% in the IV quarter compared to the III, which, in general, there for the first time since 2009. In addition, was slightly revised GDP growth for the eurozone in 2011 — from 1.5 to 1.4%, but this is — all the same height.

You can also add a significant (especially in the past three months), the expansion of monetary base (the balance of the ECB), to $ 3.02 trillion, and that, in general, not very big news. And, of course, there is the question of what actually happened? Especially against the background of official U.S. data, that look is not just optimistic and very optimistic, look pretty picture, portrayed last week the Fed's own "beige book."

In fact, the study of this "book" (ie, the replacement of the report of the regional banks in the economy in their own regions) just gives the likely answer to that question me. Quite easily lead main points of the document, taken from the website k2kapital.ru:

Economy grew at a rate "from mild to moderate";

— U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a moderate pace;

— Consumer spending was the main positive;

— Sales prospects in the not to distant future — is more optimistic;

— The situation with residential real estate "several" was better in most regions;

— Hiring "a little" grown in several regions;

— The situation in the real estate market is also positive in some regions;

— Terms of banking in general have become better;

— Pressure from the salaries generally restrained, prices measured.

I will not comment on these points individually, partly it was made in a number of previous texts, but you can pay attention to them, so to speak, demonstrative optimism that says only one thing: the Fed was involved in the campaign, while on the side of the existing administration. Again, I have written many times, why such an option is much more affordable than a neutral or, much less, aggressive and negative behavior, so I will not repeat (and yes it does not matter: the fact, in general, there is). But here's what conclusions follow from it and how they relate to the decline in the last days?

I see a situation like that. People even play the stock market, in general, do not usually have a more or less clear presentation of how to construct economy. I know it perfectly on for yourself, even while working in the Ministry of Economy and skillfully engaged the economy, I am far not immediately able to provide for themselves more or less complete picture of the situation, and then only seriously going beyond the formal boundaries of their own job obligations. What did we talk about ordinary people, much less Western, not "spoiled" Russian education with its thrust to generalizations and gain new knowledge, and faith in advertising, especially coming from official institutions …

This means that, faced with the massive propaganda of significant improvements in the economy, these people (ie, virtually everyone who has some, albeit relative, capital) are beginning to look optimistically into the future — with all the ensuing consequences for the markets. These effects occurred and: markets soon grew quite decently. And nobody negativity, which constantly arose here and there on the periphery of, in general, no special attention is given.

But here's the data on euro area GDP were in sight. And as for Europe are the eyes of the world, for it was she must show the world new mechanisms work from the debtors, and because it is so intensely printed in the near future funds, and so in the end there — the elections in major countries . And quite clearly pronounced negative was so not in accordance with the State-owned South American optimism that the markets froze in disbelief and, in any case, have decided to drop a little bit.
I think that there is no particular long-term effect of all this will not work: another wave of official society will cover the positive and the markets will go up again. If you suddenly find that by the end of spring means to maintain the market is no more, but before the election is still quite a lot of time, as we have already opened and read as some Fed officials, and some "especially close" to its banks by the end of Quarter II the probability of emission and the Fed. And, before the election, anyway (that is, before the beginning of November), the markets will be fine.

There is only One situation in which something can happen severe — if go drastically bad economic data. But it may be only in the event of a sharp drop in private demand, as such, probably will not. Obama is not in vain once again to increment the debt limit: a means for social benefits will be, and specifically they now support, in general, falling demand.

So Makarov, no critical events to illumine will not if only not there will be any disasters outside the United States. Potentially, at least, such is viewed as the two. First — a war in Iran, and for this reason, I suspect, until Obama chickened out. 2nd — some collapse in Europe: Greece whether the elections in France or somewhere else. The second is dependent on the United States less, but I suspect that it is not in vain ECB printed so much money: they need are in order to close the Short-term "hole" in the economy. Long-term, they, of course, will not be able to close more quickly create new prepyadstviya, but before the end of the year is likely to have enough resources.

Thus, the situation seems to me to follow this: until the end of the year everything will be more or less relaxed (well, except that in November and December will be a rise in inflation), but later may start another wave of falling private demand, to control which can only be a very massive emissions — with all the attendant. But in the coming six months, most likely, everything will be relaxed.

Like this post? Please share to your friends: