Megaterakt September 11, 2001 was, of course, the most effective terrorist attack in the history of mankind: the death toll was 2977 people, the direct damage — $ 55 billion. Another $ 123 billion in estimated economic impact of a terrorist attack. A grown astronomically costs safety increment total cash loss Yankees at times.
Those wishing to reproduce 9.11 were found almost immediately — so, in 2002, was planned attack liner on the Freedom Tower in Los Angeles. In 2006, the Islamists were arrested, were preparing to undermine the Holland Tunnel under the Hudson River and one of New York's bridges — which would entail hundreds of casualties and traffic jams. In 2011, managed to prevent a possible megaterakt at Kennedy Airport — saboteurs were going to undermine the fuel flowing in significant part by residential areas, and tanks with fuel (taking into account that the daily consumption of fuel in the larger airports tyschami measured tones, the effect could be really devastating ). In the same year, was arrested terrorist, who wanted to storm the Capitol with explosive-laden remote-controlled aircraft.
While U.S. intelligence pretty excellent prevented all attempts of large-scale attacks. But in the midst of professionals dominates the view that playing megaterakta actually inevitably, in spite of all the investments in safety — Modern urban civilization is very vulnerable. Mathematical forecasting techniques also do not report anything comforting. So, with an emphasis on statistical analysis, the South American researcher Aaron Klose and his Swiss collaborator Ryan Woodard concluded that the ability to repeat an action similar to that of September 11, in the coming 10 years is 50%.
How can it be a scenario? Security experts almost unanimously say that the clear, "a remake of" hardly likely — the main effort in the United States have focused specifically on the reflection of an air of danger. For these purposes, once a year is allocated more than $ 6 billion, another $ 4 billion is spent airlines. The next time the script to reproduce 9.11 will be much more difficult, and the terrorists know it.
The main target — "strategic" principle tunnels and bridges, the destruction of which could cause real harm, comparable with effect from September 11. Other likely risk — the attack on chemical plants (which occurred on producing insecticide plant in Bhopal, India tragedy claimed the lives of 18 thousand), and the undermining of large dams.
And more than likely "exotic" scenarios. Thus, the most massive non-nuclear explosions in history are associated with quite specific type of man-made disasters, with sufficient resources fully playable for terrorist purposes. Let's go back to December 6, 1917, and a look at the Canadian Halifax. "Now in the morning, December 6, 1917, at 9:00 06 minutes on the horizon in the bay, I saw a glow that seemed brighter than the sun. After a few seconds of the Halifax shot up a huge column of smoke, decorated with colorful flames. These languages at once disappeared in gray-black cloud of smoke and a few moments later reappeared in the sky in the form of numerous outbreaks. billowed over the city slowly dark mushroom of smoke. Later, before we heard the sound of 2-that followed, one by one, deaf peals explosion. By definition, the sextant altitude of this dark the fungus was more than 2 miles. He hung motionless over the city within 15 minutes. " Killed 1,963 people have gone missing around 2 thousand. "In the 3-city schools of 500 students survived 11. Northern part of the town — Richmond District — in fact it is wiped off the face of the earth. Just a small town was absolutely destroyed 1,600 buildings, 12 thousand were very damaged." This was the result of a small explosion (about 3 thousand tons) by modern standards, the ship "Mont Blanc", loaded in the main picric acid (trinitrophenol). Until the 2nd World is used as explosives and reality "saved", for example, the product in the crotch as dyestuffs.
Equally harsh transports were explosions of ammunition at Port Chicago (observers mention mushroom cluster height of 3 km), Mumbai and the Texas tragedy — in almost every way more noticeable. In 1942 in Texas City exploded ship loaded with military explosives does not, as an ordinary ammonium nitrate (widely used as a nitrogen fertilizer), while as a "detonator" may have served as a cigarette butt. This was followed by two more explosions of ships with the same load. Result — 1500 dead, destroyed by two thirds city and the terrible fire on nearby refineries and chemical plants, the local industry is virtually erased from the face of the earth.
In other words, to arrange a kiloton explosion, rather have (or take) a small vessel and its cargo of widely used in industry and agriculture materials. With all this oil terminals and linked to the coast nefteperarabatyvayuschie factories are perfect target for a similar attack, and knock the 1st ship in a similar port will inevitably entail a chain reaction. Coordinated attack several oil ports will give an economic effect is incomparably greater than the collapse of the twin towers (especially in combination with a parallel attack on the high ground storage tanks) — The U.S. is very much dependent on imported crude oil, and in the case of the import of its supplies only enough for two week.
It's a personal example that there is not just a repeat of September 11 and the prospect of release of terror for the next level. Technical ability, which is pretty much no point can destroy objects, and the town, putting on the economy pretty global and not merely "psychological" impact. As noted by the head of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Chertoff's name with the talking, "modern achievements of science and technology allow even malehankih terrorist group to kill not only thousands of people, both in 2001, and the hundreds of thousands."