The representatives of the Belarusian opposition has not yet decided on the procedure of nominating a single candidate from the democratic forces in the upcoming presidential election. European experts attribute this to the change in the mood of opposition politicians more pragmatic, as well as the reluctance of consolidating.
In an interview to "Deutsche Welle" German expert on Belarus Sean Martin notes that the opposition is not attached to the upcoming presidential campaign of great value and more work on their image in the future. Most opposition politicians to soberly assess the situation and does not expect to win this election.
"When you consider that there is no such unity, which was the last presidential election, and that the EU is a little" cool "on the Belarusian opposition, this approach can be considered as a fairly pragmatic, — Martin Sean. — All I could see in the last six months, did not testify to the fact that the representatives of the leading opposition organizations have the willingness to choose a single candidate. "
The former representative of the European Parliament, and now head of Berlin's Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Hans-Gert Poettering noted the urgent need for the opposition to develop a common strategy.
"I call on the opposition to choose a single candidate who would become a real alternative to Alexander Lukashenko. Cohesion and consolidation — these are the factors that influence the win."
According Poettering, participation in elections the opposition should be seen as proof of their unity.
German experts also point out that the election results largely affect support for candidates from outside.
"The Belarusian opposition leaders realized that Brussels has already put it is impossible, as the EU has become less to support the opposition. Moreover topic of European integration is not very important for Belarusian voters," — says Martin Sean.
Therefore, some members of the opposition have decided that is likely to focus on Russia. "Any politician who expects to take the presidency, must reckon with its eastern neighbor," — says Sean. They say that without the support of Russia in Belarus will not be a significant change, but not the Russian factor will be decisive for the election results.
Hans-Gert Poettering shares this position. He noted that a recent screening of two films, "The Godfather" on Russian television showed that the Kremlin does not support Lukashenko as before. "However, no one can predict how much Moscow would intervene in the upcoming election campaign," — notes Poettering.
Mr. Poettering does not consider the interest of the EU to the Belarusian opposition has decreased. However, he called the decisive factor for the success of the opposition in elections not benefit from the outside, but how much will be united to its ranks.