Science can not predict the anomalous heat

Science can not predict the anomalous heat

Although the summer of 2010 almost a year, scientists still can not confidently answer the question about the causes of extreme heat. However, some have expressed the view that hot summer — just one manifestation of unprecedented scale of change in Earth's climate system.

Like last year, meteorologists nothing can please them: theoretically possible "range" of weather forecasting is only 14 days, and modern methods can make relatively accurate predictions only for seven days.

"There is a theoretical limit of predictability — two weeks atmosphere" forgets "the initial conditions. Nonlinear processes in the atmosphere, and the weakest fluctuations in it can lead to a huge discrepancy, and the initial conditions can not be restored future state. Though tear apart, but determirovanny Weather can not be "on" two weeks at the most advanced machines in the most successful scenario. further begins probabilistic forecast ", — said the director of the Main Geophysical Observatory named Voeikova RAS Vladimir Katz.

According to him, beyond this period, you can only make probabilistic forecasts, and because the extreme heat was extremely improbable, even in these forecasts, it did not hit anything in 2010 or in 2011.

"The probability of such heat is so small that it can happen every five thousand years. Probability is extremely low. But she realized. And a very small probability can be realized — you can break the bank in Las Vegas" — said Katz.

"If someone gives you a forecast for the summer, not giving reasonable chance, confidently said that the summer will be such and such, it is, to put it mildly, a layman. Professionals do not give such answers," — he stressed.

According to climatologist, is itself extreme heat is not a manifestation of global warming is not evidence against him cold days in winter. Climate change — it is natural, a statistically significant change, for a sufficiently long period of time — 30 years.
"But this heat can be considered as a living illustration of what will happen to our country if the climate will be moving in the direction in which it moves now. Decades later the probability of such events will increase," — said the scientist.

He added that for a long time the Russian people will have a sense of "deja vu" in the summer heat and talk to each other, "the heat in the summer of 2010."

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