Scientists predict recurrence of the 2010 heat wave in Russia

American researchers called the heat "surprise" and came to the conclusion that at the end of the century the probability of such events will increase.
Heat in Central Russia in the summer of 2010 was caused by a rare atmospheric phenomenon, rather than climate change. This is the conclusion reached by scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who analyzed the atmospheric phenomena in Russia, the level of pollution by greenhouse gases and other factors with the help of 22 computer models.

A team of researchers led by Randall Dole and his colleagues at the University of Colorado has found that in early summer 2010, based on the analysis of the temperature of the oceans and the state of the sea ice was impossible to predict the heat. "Knowledge of past and present climate trends in greenhouse gases did not allow us to predict the heat wave in Russia in the summer of 2010," — writes Randall Dole, who is also the position of deputy director of the National Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, NOAA. According to scientists, the air temperature in the western part of Russia in the last 130 years (1880-2009) has increased slightly, while the world average was higher. Such a "warming hole on the map" is quite peculiar to this region, the researchers note. Dole called the heat of the 2010 "climate surprise".

Earlier in Roshydromet said that heat was the biggest natural disaster in the northern hemisphere and has a combination of abnormally stable blocking anticyclone, a severe drought in the Caspian region and the general increase in temperature due to global warming.

U.S. climate scientists also concluded that the main cause of the heat wave was the so-called blocking anticyclone (this was said earlier, Russian scientists). As a result of this phenomenon over the western region of Russia emerged with increased atmospheric pressure, which "did not allow the passage of" the stream of cold air and moist air masses. In this case, the scientists point out that the phenomenon was an unusually strong and long, and its main symptoms were not recorded in the area since 1880.

At the same time, speak in NOAA, in connection with the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the European part of Russia in the next few decades the area waiting for new natural disaster. Climate models show that if in 2010, the likelihood of such a thing as a blocking anticyclone in western Russia was less than 1%, by the end of the century it will reach 10%.

"It seems that some parts of Russia are at the peak of the curve of the period during which the occurrences of extreme heat will increase dramatically," — says study co-author Martik Erling.

Abnormally high temperatures held in the European part of Russia from July to mid-August. The absolute record was broken for the capital on July 29, when the temperature reached 38.2 degrees. In addition, prolonged heat waves characterized by high night temperatures.

Abnormal heat complicated the situation of forest and peat fires, a few weeks, Moscow and other regions of Central Russia suffered from smoke from wildfires. How to write the researchers from NOAA, according to insurance company Munich Re, the heat has led to an increase in mortality by 56 000 people, and a massive loss of crops.

Fully research "Were there preconditions for forecasting heat waves in Russia?» («Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?») Will be published in scientific journals Geophysical Research Letters.

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