The March saga of an independent Kurdistan

Not so long ago on the website, "Military Review" has attempted to analyze the situation with the likely independence of Kurdistan, which has terrain in 4 countries: Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Now actions in the region have led to the fact that the government of South Kurdistan, which is located in Iraq itself has publicly stated that on March 21 of this year to set up an ad Kurdistan independent state with its capital in a probable town of Erbil. Such statements, which are almost rocked the world of politicians and the public (first politicians to Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria), has permitted himself to make the head of the Iraqi Kurds Massoud Barzani. But on March 21 have left in the past, but no declaration of independence by the Kurds in general and Barzani, and it did not take place. Make out the premise on which the Kurds initially decided to suddenly declare probable sovereignty own country, and later suddenly as suddenly abandoned by their own ideas.

Let's start with a review of how segodnyaschy situation could contribute to the emergence on the world map of the new sovereign country. Here Masood Barzani, of course, felt that the time to fully favors the Kurds to finally have found the long-awaited statehood itself. The truth: after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, the situation there was recall blatant territorial confrontation, in which the Kurds were allocated in a special way. This is due to the fact that the Kurdistan region of Iraq for many years, virtually no control Baghdad and de jure Iraqi city of Arbil de facto Iraqi has long been not. And if there is a precedent of broad autonomy (and almost confederal status of the country), why not talk about the true independence.

At this time the confrontation armed rebels in Syria on the one hand and on the other the government troops gained such momentum that local Kurds totally could declare an immediate withdrawal from the Syrian Republic with the simultaneous occurrence of a unified Kurdish government. By the way, for the West and the Syrian opposition that of course would have enormous pressure on President Assad and, as has now become a stylish read, "rocking the boat" (Syrian boat). Many experts believe as before, that the days of Bashar al-Assad at the helm of the Syrian government are numbered, and if so, the Syrian Kurds, who, by the way, there are about 3 million people (15% of Syria's population) have access to the actual point of anarchy (or polyarchy) in its sole discretion.

Much more difficult for the Kurds is the case in Turkey. According to various reports the number of ethnic Kurds in the State ranges from 7 to all 20 million (such variation is related to the fact that many Turks of Kurdish origin are not directly trying to assert their own ethnic group). Constantly emerging contradictions between official Ankara and the Kurdish diaspora here and expressions to Massoud Barzani, the likely independence of Kurdistan often turns into a clash police and residents in the east of the country, and after Barzani said about his own intentions, clashes escalated in the truest fights. In the province of Sirnak, Turkish troops with active support from the air held a large-scale operation against it, as the Minister of Defense, Kurdish terrorists. In the town of Diyarbakir Turkish police using non-lethal weapons, broke up a demonstration of multi-million Kurds who met with animation messages from Iraqi Kurdistan. As a result, a police and army operations were affected to hundreds of people on both sides, 13 people were killed. Recall that the operation was carried out in advance of March 21 (prazdnichka "Nowruz"), and in that same day, which was to find the way ahead Kurds.

Such action on the part of the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has shown that the region is now in Turkey even alone can actually hinder the possibility of creating a Kurdish country.

Now there is a loaf about why the favorite Iraqi Kurdish Barzani did not dare to bring certain plans relating to the proclamation of the independence of Kurdistan. Some on hand would be the formation of a sovereign Kurdistan now? In fact, anyone. Even to the prospect of Kurdish independence, hardly promised harsh political and economic dividends. In 1-x, to declare the independence of the real needs rather harsh OUTDOOR support, in-2, you need a fairly trivial internal integration. Now the Kurds neither the one nor the other.

If Barzani and the Kurds is the favorite, only those who live in Iraqi Kurdistan, and for the Turkish and Syrian Kurds his identity consolidation is unlikely. It would seem that the independence of Kurdistan would support the United States or our homeland to somewhat reduce the impact of Turkey in the region. United States means the Kurdish separatists by promising that independence, fully could arrange "orange" speech in Iran in order to bring to power their own henchmen. But for U.S. recognition of Iranian Kurdistan would mean the simultaneous recognition of all the Kurdish Republic, which now looks quite unclear, since no obvious favorite in this pro-Western state is hypothetical, positive recognition of the sovereignty of the United States will be zero. And at the same time, Washington is also at risk to quarrel with Turkey, which on the eve of a probable active phase of the operation against Iran Obama obviously does not want to admit.

The recognition of the independence of Kurdistan from the Russian Federation also looks pretty versatile, even if the move weakens Turkey. At the same time, Turkey could respond Moscow "reverse curtsy," prohibit the use of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles Russian military and civilian courts or bury the project "South Stream". And this and that — obviously not impressed Moscow. Tehran would also obviously did not realize the behavior of Moscow …

In general, support independence Kurdistan is now obvious to anyone not profitable, as the likely future friendship with Erbil (very unclear) is buried in the likely negative concomitant loss of more or less a measured relations with other countries in the region.

Of course, specifically the absence of obvious external support led by Masoud Barzani, verbally postpone the date of the adoption of an independent Kurdistan indefinitely.

However, apart from political motives "lazy," Kurdish independence, there is one — financial. If we assume that on the world map now appears sovereign Kurdistan, it will be in the truest economic blockade, even under conditions of Erbil pretty impressive supplies of hydrocarbons. How to transport the raw material, if locked in Kurdistan? We should not forget that the Kurdistan besides almost all sides "government"Would surround the countries from which Barzani lust cut to an impressive piece of cake territorial. Neither Iraq nor Syria, nor even more so Iran and Turkey will not be allowed to realize the potentials of Kurdistan's oil through its area by market rules.

It turns out that all the statements about the likely occurrence of the declaration of independence of Kurdistan — it's only words, which so far have nothing to do with the real state of affairs in the region.

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