Abrupt change in the probability of Russia's position on the Kyoto Protocol "close to zero" at climate talks in December in Russia, it is likely to announce his refusal to participate in the second period of Kyoto, told RIA Novosti Presidential Advisor, Special Representative of the President for Climate Alexander Bedritsky.
"There are established rules for the preparation and adoption of such decisions. Decision on the implementation of Russia's obligations under the Copenhagen and Cancun agreements outside the Kyoto Protocol adopted at the highest political level. This decision can only be changed by the President of the Russian Federation, I see no reason for such hasty conclusions (about possibility of changing the position.) This matter has not been, "- said Bedritsky.
In October, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting of the government instructed the Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich study the question whether Russia's continued participation in the Kyoto Protocol.
A source in the Russian carbon market in mid-November told RIA Novosti that the Ministry of Economic Development has offered to take a decision on the participation of Russia in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in the upcoming UN climate talks in Doha (Qatar), which will begin on November 26.
However Bedritsky considers it unlikely the decision "on the fly", in the course of negotiations.
"In the practice of the negotiation process I know of cases where the position is changing. Political decisions do not change overnight. If there is an evolution in these decisions, as a rule, this evolutionary process — it is noticeable. In this case there was no movement," — Advisor to the President said.
According to him, no Ministry of Economic Development or other agencies did not provide formal cost-effectiveness analysis of Kyoto projects, from which it would be necessary to change the political position of Russia.
He stressed that the Kyoto Protocol in its present form can not significantly affect the reduction of the burden on the climate, as in the second period going to enter the developed countries, whose share of global emissions is 15%. The United States — the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the developed world, is not a party to the Kyoto Protocol.
Questionable, in the opinion of Bedritsky and the argument in favor of Russia's participation in the second period that the Russian business can benefit from the flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol — Joint Implementation projects.
"The benefits of the second period of the Kyoto Protocol is very problematic because large consumers of quotas — Canada, Japan, are not party to the second period. And from this side, it also makes no sense," — said the adviser.
"Second period — this is a step in place, it does not move us anywhere, nowhere nearer," — he added.
Sami Russian joint implementation projects, said Bedritsky, in many cases do not fit the criteria for these projects. The Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which entered into force in 2005, requires the commitment by developed countries to reduce emissions imposed for a specified period, as well as market-based mechanisms for their implementation. The first commitment period of the Protocol to 31 December 2012.
The second period begins in 2013, its refusal to participate in it, apart from Russia, said Japan and New Zealand, and Canada, which in December 2011 formally withdrew from the agreement.