UN talks on climate change in 2012, opening on Monday, are expected to be hot, and it's not just that the daily temperature in their conduct, Doha, Qatar, in November is 30 degrees Celsius — is at stake the future of the Kyoto Protocol, "tab" on the $ 100 billion a year in aid to developing countries and a number of important issues.
The delegations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 194 countries and the European Union, for two weeks of negotiations in Qatar will have to finally consolidate the paper conditions of the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, to try to find funding for the created two years before the Green Climate Fund, as well as , finish the work of the past five years, switched to training a new global agreement.
The range of estimates of the forthcoming conference for Russian and foreign experts ranging from defining it as "a very technical event", where you just do the finishing touches to what has long been agreed, the threat of repetition "Copenhagen version". Three years ago, a similar conference in Denmark over a large-scale failure of the parties were not able to overcome their differences and create a much anticipated new global agreement on climate change. This time on a confide to each other developed and developing countries, depends on a number of less high-profile, but no less important items on the agenda.
Not so 'green'
The decision to hold the final conference in 2012 in Qatar, which was announced a year ago at the talks in South Africa, has disappointed many environmental activists. After a long standoff unprecedented Qatar and South Korea — two candidates from the Asian group, which in turn fell to accept talks in 2012 — went to the conference of OPEC member country with the world's highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita.
Environmentalists fear increased when it became known that the chairman of the talks, former energy minister and chairman of the state-owned Qatar Petroleum Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah. Thus, the head of Global Campaign for Climate Action Kelly Rigg (Kelly Rigg) notes that part of the President, for example, was "not the best political solution" for only two weeks before the climate negotiations to visit large power Oil & Money conference in London.
Representatives of the Climate Action Network at the intermediate negotiating session in Bonn urged Qatar to show leadership and encourage others to become more active, in particular, announced a voluntary order to reduce emissions of CO2, as previously done in Mexico, which took UN talks in 2010. Officials, including Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres Convention, actively stressed that negotiations can be for Qatar and the region an excellent opportunity "to show the world its contribution to tackling climate change."
On the eve of the conference, many non-governmental organizations continue to express dissatisfaction with the lack of an active and visible in the preparation of Qatar talks. Thus, the global community activists Avaaz petition even called the idea of a conference on climate change under the leadership of one of the leaders of OPEC, "the appointment of Dracula in charge of blood bank."
If not the main, it is certainly one of the most dramatic in the upcoming conference will be "Kyoto" question — two weeks of negotiations in Doha, countries must finalize and adopt amendments to the Kyoto Protocol provides for the obligations of its participants to reduce emissions in the second period of its validity.
The second period begins in 2013, but it is not clear when it will end — in the negotiations in 2011 in South Africa, developed and developing countries have failed to agree on the issue. The EU, which after the "escape" of Russia, Japan, Canada and New Zealand remained there almost alone, insists on eight-year period, until 2020. Developing countries do not want to fix rotten conditions of the agreement for such a long time and offer limited to 2017.
Here, the focus of the talks will be Russia, where business and environmentalists continue to fight for the "return" of the country in the number of parties to the agreement. In October, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting of the government instructed the Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich study the question whether Russia's continued participation in the protocol. Ministry of Economic Development to support the position previously RSPP "Business Russia", which wants to store in Russia "Kyoto" joint implementation projects.
However, the presidential adviser, Special Representative of the President for Climate Alexander Bedritsky, told RIA Novosti in less than a week before the conference, said that the probability of a sharp change Russia's position on the Kyoto Protocol "close to zero", and in Doha, the Russian Federation, it is likely to announce his refusal to participate in the Kyoto-2.
Where is the money
Other "pain points" of the upcoming talks will be expected financial issue. Together with 2012 coming to an end the period of the so-called "rapid climate finance 'for developing countries: at the Copenhagen conference in 2009 developed countries promised to send to those needs $ 30 billion in the next three years.
By 2020, the amount of resources devoted to the promotion of technology and nizgouglerodnyh combating the impact of climate change is expected to reach $ 100 billion a year, and for the management of these significant flows in 2010, a special Green Climate Fund (GCF).
However, according to the developing countries and environmentalists, the fund even after two years is an "empty shell" because of specific obligations in terms of the "climate" means after 2012 so far — and no understanding of the source of funding will be involved in such amount. Moreover, according to estimates of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), yet of the promised $ 30 billion actually allocated only 23.6 billion, more than half of which are loans rather than grant funding, and only 20% of resources have been directed the challenges of climate change adaptation.
Presidential adviser Alexander Bedritsky said that Russia currently has no formal commitment from donors, plans to volunteer to help the developing countries in the framework of the Green Climate Fund, promoting the first "priority" for her state — a state of the CIS.
Climate Program Coordinator Oxfam International, Tim Gore, told RIA Novosti said that if Russia once planned to become a full donor fund it "useful to participate in the creation of its mechanisms, so you do not play by others' rules." In addition, in his opinion, Russia can use its "interim" status of a country in transition, to try to resolve the differences between developed and developing countries on the issue.
The first meeting of the Conference of the Parties will almost certainly begin with the debate on an issue that remains unresolved all 20 years of the agreement — the parties to the first session of 1994, can not accept the so-called rules of procedure, "stuttered" State of the possibility of a vote. Now for the approval of a decision on consensus, that is, the agreement of all parties, which, according to some observers at the talks, and even some of the participating countries, making the process too slow and not efficient enough.
Attempt to remove the obstacle in the form of a consensus taken, in particular, Mexico and Papua New Guinea, which in May 2011 submitted a draft amendment to the Convention, a resolution to make decisions by a three-fourths majority, if all efforts to reach the necessary consensus have been exhausted. At the final conference in South Africa, both countries withdrew their own amendment for improvement, stating that its review will continue in 2012.
Russia, in turn, its amendment, as presented in May 2011, the "sights" on a much more fundamental aspect of the talks — the division of countries in Annex 1 and 2 of the Convention. These lists, which determine what obligations is a country, Russia has periodically reviewed "in light of … the current socio-economic development of the Parties to the Convention."
Amendment expectedly met fierce opposition of some developing countries, and in the negotiations in South Africa in 2011 the Russian Federation stated that if the traditional ways to take a decision on it will fail, the country will take advantage of her right to put his proposal to a public vote. On the last night of the conference, which lasted about 36 hours longer than planned, "the Russian" amendment was agreed to postpone to 2012.
The gap is growing
While negotiators discuss procedural and substantive issues, the scientists do not cease to sound the alarm. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in 2011, reached a record high since the beginning of the industrial age. As noted by WMO in 1750 the atmosphere has received about 375 billion tons of carbon in the various greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) the last few years is also preparing to negotiate unfavorable forecasts: as the annual report of the Expert UNEP, "gigaton gap" between the desired and the actual — emissions needed to limit global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius, and current liabilities countries — has increased to 14 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent.
According to calculations of UNEP, in 2020, global greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by 14% from the current level — the only way one can achieve "the objectives of the two degrees." Meanwhile, according to the plans of the convention, a new agreement that negotiators have agreed to the end of 2015, and in 2020 only comes into force. Discuss the future of the "successor" to the Kyoto Protocol to continue in Doha.