Members: the chairman of the Minsk city branch of the BPF Ivashkevich and deputy editor of the "Belgazeta" Victor Martinovich.
Why could not repeat the scenario in 2006?
Valery Karbalevich"In 2006, the opposition managed to carry out the scenario of nominating a single candidate from the democratic forces. And all the political players and independent experts have recognized this great achievement of the opposition.
At this time, it would seem, the situation is more favorable to the opposition, it is not possible. Why? What is in this sense, the current political situation is different from that of five years ago? "
Ivashkevich"A year ago, the UDF was developed procedure of nominating a single candidate. But the "Freedom Movement" and those organizations that are focused on Milinkevich, refused to participate in this process, the project was never realized. Moreover, not only broke the UDF, but the Belarusian independent unit, gurtavavsya around Milinkevich.
Therefore, those politicians who claim to the presidency, could not sit and wait for it to happen nomination. I think that a single candidate will be determined after the step of collecting signatures. Already begun screening candidates. I think as you get closer to the election they will become less and less. "
Karbalevich"I am afraid that on the contrary — as you get closer to the election they will become more and more."
There is a lack of faith in victory
Victor Martinovich"In 2006 there was a sense the victory, although the reasons for this was not. Now, on the contrary, the regime is weak as never before. After all, there is the pressure of Russia, a large number of economic problems. Against this background, there is no faith in the opposition to win. This is the main factor in the lack of a single candidate.
Here it is necessary to underline the role of negative demaralizuyuchuyu Milinkevich. The more, the more he plays the role of the priest Gapon. Milinkevich says that can not be beat, but I'm still going to vote. Why? In this case, step aside, give way to those who believe and fight for the victory. It seems that now Milinkevich not going to fight against the regime, and on the pro-Moscow candidate, that is, on the side of Lukashenko. "
Ivashkevich"I can not answer for all the candidates. But the team Sannikov, which I represent, to believe in victory. "
Karbalevich"In my opinion, the first thing is to make the candidate who seeks to win — is to create around himself a broad coalition of supporters. A team of Sannikov categorically refuses to hold any talks about the association and the nomination of a single candidate. "
Ivashkevich"Zasyadalavki is not a form of association. This association should be in action. Here we propose joint actions around the theme of the missing politicians. It will be a coalition of those who are against Lukashenko. For now, a coalition against the Moscow-backed candidate. In fact, a coalition in support of Lukashenko. "
Karbalevich"Perhaps one of the reasons for separation of the opposition is that the changed attitude of the West. That Western politicians pushing the opposition to consolidation. Now the West waved his hand to the Belarusian opposition has sharply reduced its support. "
Martinovic"Do not overestimate the role of donors. In my opinion, those candidates who are declared expert and pro-Moscow political community, are in fact pro-Western and resources obtained from the West.
Now there is psevdadyskusiya that has been imposed from the outside, on the topic of which is better: the candidate from Moscow or Lukashenko. If there was a single opposition candidate, it may appear sociological fixed base for the second round. A second round will be the victory of the opposition candidate. "
Is a unified strategy?
Karbalevich"The Bureau offers a UDF to develop and adopt a common strategy of the opposition, winning strategy. Is this possible? "
Ivashkevich"General Company of opposition could carry the slogan" Belarus without Lukashenko. " We need to create a situation that most of society knew that she did not vote for Lukashenko. In this sense, no matter how much will the opposition candidates. And if Yarmoshina announce that Lukashenko voted for 98%, it would be contrary prochuvstvovaniyu majority. Then we can get people to the square against fraud, to hold free elections. "
Karbalevich"I am afraid that if the ballot will be three opposition candidates, the opponents of Lukashenko simply do not vote, believing that it is meaningless. And then will come to the area as the protesters as they came out on spring street protests of the opposition. After all, the street — it's a strong final campaign. If a company will not (in the absence of a single candidate is unlikely), then people will not see the point in going out to the square. "
Martinovic"There can not be effective without a common strategy of the candidate. Anyone who does not participate in the election of a single candidate who said that he would go to the end, is a traitor, he is working on Lukashenko. "
Ivashkevich"I am not against the nomination of a single candidate. But today there is no procedure for its determination. And candidates can not determine the strongest. After all, there is no obvious argument that this or that politician is the strongest. "
Karbalevich"No procedure because there is no political will. If such a will appears, the screen procedure. I note that in 2005 there was also a clear leader. Nevertheless, a single selected ".
Martinovic"And the political will of NO because there is no faith in victory. I also hope that after the petition if it remains no more than three opposition candidates to agree on a single nomination will be easier. But at that point of time for campaigning in favor of a single will not remain. "
Karbalevich"The worst thing that can happen — is that none of the opposition candidates are not required to gather 100 thousand signatures. Because the opposition divided, scattered. "