As for the coming year, the biggest fear of professionals is the possibility of a fiscal cliff in the U.S. and a default in Greece. Creator of the term "fiscal break"Was the head of the U.S. Federal reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke who warned in his own speech to Congress in February of last year, a situation that may arise first in 2013. Assumed that if, prior to December 31, 2012 the Republican and Democratic parties do not perceive a compromise how to reduce the budget deficit, then the beginning of the 2013 Act will enter into force on the economical control after this action in the United States and the world can even take an uncontrollable temper.
The document specifies a tangible reduction of budget expenditures, while increasing various taxes. The very act for themselves, this was already a compromise that allowed in 2012 to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and temporarily move the default. Almost on the eve of the New Year head of the Ministry of Finance of South American Tim Geithner said that the ability of increasing the public debt of the United States will be exhausted by the end of February. But it can occur before the middle of February as necessary from the Bipartisan Policy Center report, submitted on January 7.
But on January 2, as you know, Democrats and Republicans are still signed another deal on taxes and government spending, postponing the decision on limiting the budget deficit by two months. In other words, until the end of February in the States, not increase taxes and reduce government spending. The agreement — is delaying the inevitable, and pull back from the edge of the fiscal cliff Yankees have not yet succeeded, said expert Independent analytical agency "Investkafe" Anna Bodrov:
"This also applied very languid subject to the revision of the highest levels of the U.S. municipal debt. These two tasks at the moment is very burdened investors who will not take as long as something is not clear up these issues. Basically, it is expected that the peak of the debate have at the end of January, and then the Republicans will not go to those compromises with Democrats, which they read as in December. And while this is a game of politics, not the economy. As politicians agree upon, and negotiations will be very languid in this time, then the market will some signals. But until the end of February-beginning of March there will not be significant progress, but are verbal fights, but are political ambitions. "
The problem is that the Republicans and the Democrats stick to fundamentally reverse positions on issues of monetary policy. Republicans insist on cutting government spending to lower economic growth without the disadvantage of the tax burden. Democrats also want to achieve this by cutting government spending and raising taxes at once.
The threat of a fiscal cliff in the U.S. will continue over the coming months and will have a deterrent effect on the growth of quotations of stock and money markets, said in a radio interview with our board member of Deutsche Bank in Russia Yaroslav Lissovolik:
"The hope is that the same problem of the fiscal cliff will be overcome in a few months. But I think we all say that we have seen again how all the same imperfect mechanism for coordinating major economic assets in the United States. This risk factor is medium until will be taken some measures to improve the coordination of decisions devices. "
It should be understood that the problem of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats would have caused in the U.S., according to the Act economical control the immediate abolition of tax breaks totaling more than 600 billion dollars, in other words, about 4 percent of GDP. This, in turn, would put America on the brink of the latest recession.
As for the other pole of the tension in the global economy — the euro zone — then the clouds may again begin to thicken over Greece. According to Yaroslav Lisovolik, in the last months of 2012 Greek factor ceased to be the main thing. But it is possible that he may again become so in the foreseeable future, said Lissovolik:
"Taking into account the electoral cycle in a number of EU states, first elections in Germany, the factor of Greece will once again be one of the most important in the course of this year. After the elections for the Germans again the question arises: whether to support the Greek economy or not. And if the answer to this question is no, then can be fully that will be the problem of the Greek prepyadstviya number 1 in the second half of this year for global financial markets. "
With Yaroslav Lissovolik completely agree and Anna Bodrov:
"Basically, Greece may remind myself to close by May of this year, when she runs out of the limit of money that has been allocated to it at the end of 2012. And on the first plan will come again, the additional requirements of Greece in the amount of 20-30 billion ( euros). This amount has to be the heaviest for the eurozone. German economy is not allowed to increase this burden, then the question of membership of Greece in the euro zone really get up to full height. "
At the end of last week, the IMF chief Christine Lagarde said, in effect, that the threat of a fiscal cliff and the unresolved question of the debt limit in the U.S., as the protracted evrokrizis fraught with "great world economic crisis." According to the views of many professionals, we are at the moment just exactly that and look. At the general bleak backdrop, analysts are trying to figure out who would have to pull the world economy out of the mire, and are turning their sights on China. But estimates of the saving potential of the eastern dragons are very different.
According to the views of Anna Bodrova, China just will not be the locomotive of the world economy this year and did not even run in the next 5 years. According to a professional, it is question "15-20 years, provided that China will continue to follow the course which he voiced the Communist Party."
In turn, Lissovolik believes that China has become the engine of the world economy in the criteria of a sharp economic slowdown in advanced countries:
"Specifically, due to China last couple of years global economy showed a more or less positive trend. Moreover, in the midst of the first wave of the crisis specifically to stabilize the situation in China, the highest growth rates in China have allowed to overcome the downturn in the global economy. Because I think that the importance of China in the global economy will continue to grow. "
According to the views of a professional, this year should expect perceptible economic growth and other countries, such as Brazil. According to a professional, there is some hope that in 2013, more than the highest rate of economic growth will show our homeland. The price of oil grade Brent, estimated Yaroslav Lisovolik, this year will be 113-114 dollars per barrel. It's quite a comfortable level for the Russian economy, and in addition, believes expert, it is possible the emergence of geopolitical risks related to the reasons that could lead even hig
her oil quotas predictable.
In general, the expert said, the likely fiscal open in the United States, in any case, very bad impact on all economies, including Russia. This threat — excessive occasion for our country to work towards diversifying its economy, so as not to be in such a strong dependence on the vagaries of global markets and the problems associated with the economic policies of the advanced countries.