Iran’s nuclear problem this year could lead to a military conflict. With such a warning made in the last mon coordinator of the White House policy on weapons of mass destruction, Gary Samore and former EU High Representative for foreign policy chief Javier Solana at a seminar at the Brookings Institution in Washington, dedicated to ways of resolving the nuclear prepyadstviya Iran. Samore at the present time is the executive director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Relations at the Harvard Institute and Solana — one of the senior scientific employee at the Brookings Institution.
Answering the question of what should be expected in the current year — discharge or increasing tensions around Iran’s nuclear development, Samore said that «both options are likely.» Military «confrontation could happen as early as today, the» if Iran goes on the way to accelerate its own nuclear program, first — uranium enrichment, a South American expert believes. «I agree,» — said with his own hand a European officer, who was in the past, namely, as Foreign Minister of Spain and the NATO Secretary General.
As noted Samore, Iran does not seek confrontation with the U.S., sober assessment of the difference in military capabilities, and «again and again shows caution.» Tehran already for some time deliberately slows its pace of uranium enrichment is by way of introduction of «voluntary restrictions» in this area, highlighted South American spec.
In his view, any agreement to negotiate unchanged five UN Security Council and Germany with Iran, a new round which level of political directors kicks off on Friday in Alma-Ata, do not expect at least until the coming June 14 in the country’s presidential elections.
Meanwhile, managing and spiritual favorite Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, currently focuses on the preparations for the elections and those trying to avoid foreign policy crisis, nuclear-related developments, and therefore gives orders slowing uranium enrichment, Samore said.
In turn Solana confirmed that he also sees the problem of a political group calendars «5 plus one» and Iran, which consists priemuschestvenno in preparation for the presidential elections in the Islamic republic. But along with this, very severe complicating event in the process of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear dilemma now is the situation in Syria, convinced Solana. In his view, without normalizing the situation in the problem of Iran’s nuclear ATS simply can not be solved. In addition, says Solana, the West should work more intensively in the direction of overcoming both these crises with Russia.
Samore acknowledged that the term of the ultimatum imposed on Iran by Israel and the United States, essentially dictated by «politics, not physics,» in other words, not only and not so much the actual progress of Iran’s nuclear development. If Iran decides to build nuclear weapon, then do it, he likely will not be a means of expulsion of IAEA inspectors from its own atomic centers and increase their pace of work, and some hid from the eyes of the world community property, Samore said. He also advocated the use of sanctions and the forthcoming danger tightening them against Iran, arguing that in this scenario the final positive action, in other words, the peaceful settlement of the nuclear difficulties Tehran is more possible.