Lukashenka-2006: You will live in Western Europe

As during previous election campaigns, on the eve of the presidential election authorities start to raise salaries and pensions. What similarities and differences can be seen in the election campaigns of Alexander Lukashenko in different years? Or applies the ruling power in this year the same social and outreach methods as during previous election campaigns?

"The main objective for the next five years — to bring the quality of life of our citizens to a level comparable with the Western," — this was said in the election program of Alexander Lukashenko in the 2006 elections, "State of the masses." Perhaps listeners may judge of Liberty, reach their salaries and the quality of life of Western European levels. On a more concrete figures, among other things, Alexander Lukashenko promised to "bring down inflation to no more than 5 percent a year." This promise was not fulfilled. In 2007, inflation was — 12.1 per cent, 2008 — 13.3, in 2009 — 10.1 percent. Alexander Lukashenko promised in 2006 and liberalization in the field of business, and a halving in the price of housing.

Finally, one thing remains constant — always in the year before the election is active enough to increase the salaries and pensions. Editor of "Arche" Valery Bulgakov notes that the actions of the pre-election economic promises are usually very short.

Valery Bulgakov

"Indeed, in the election year or a year, is associated with some kind of strategic and political issues for the ruling regime, one can notice the presence of a standard political tool. That is, this year certainly take place Belarusian Assembly. This event and means going to the finish line itself "the presidential race."

Also required is building up economic promises. Moreover, experience shows that they are very short. Napampovvanne additional economic benefit by getting a point, followed immediately by the very political event is rolled back. It should be expected that the same thing will happen now.

Also sometimes pops the question of scapegoating. This mode uses for its existence, the standard procedure where the responsibility for failure rests with certain single person, which represents a particular failure. Perhaps, in the This year, we see a situation when Sergei Sidorsky or other high officials will be hung all the dogs for the negative developments in the economy. "

Another difference, which is not yet fulfilled — in 2006, Alexander Lukashenko has replaced almost the entire leadership of his administration. Also quite traditional for the Belarusian elections were spy scandals, accusations of Western meddling in the internal affairs of Belarus and attacks on political opponents. Recall that in 2006 behind bars members of the NGO "Partnership", and hundreds of people were arrested on a variety of short time before the election.

Political columnist for "The Belarusians and Market" Pavljuk Bykovskii sees parallels with past election campaigns, not only in social policy, but also in the appearance of certain kampramatnyh wars.

Pavljuk Bykovskii

"Traditionally, any increase social standards. Growing salaries, pensions, following the promise of increase.

But it seems to me a more interesting parallel can be drawn with 2001. Can not even parallel, and a premonition of parallels. After three films, "The Godfather" I think that history may repeat itself, as in 2001. When the paper appeared on firing the gun, the authorities of involvement in high-profile disappearances, was the expectation that the game can join Russia. Here and now, I think, some leakage of information may affect future presidential campaign and become one of its tools. "

It is worth recalling that, according to the recollections of the campaign in 2001, a team of single opposition candidate Goncharik waited until the last day that Moscow will publish secret documents on cases of missing and call the real killers Gonchar, Krasovsky and Zakharenka. Belarusian opposition if it did not wait …



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