1. The geopolitical situation around the Russian Federation
1.1. Energy Geopolitics
The situation is not entirely positive. At this point, the security of the Russian Federation to a large extent provided by the fact that a significant number of countries in Europe depends on Russia energoelementov supplied. For this reason, the Western countries, namely Europe, unable to speak out against the Russian Federation, as destabilization in Russia is fraught with the energy crisis in Europe itself, and taking into account that the European economy is not quite sick, it can lead to a fatal ending a significant part of the European Union. But the West is not willing to tolerate this situation and the steps being taken to overcome the severe energy dependence on RF.
For this purpose, the Western countries have called "diplomatic control" Saudi Arabia, Qatar, HAPs, Azerbaijan, held a series of municipal coups and wars to control oil and gas fields in Iraq, Libya, Iran further to the queue. It is also important in principle to plunge into chaos Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan with their deposits energoelementov, not allowing those of Russia and China to use them. For transit pipelines energoelementov will be applied, under the prepared area "svezhedemokratizirovannoy" Syria, and then through Turkey into the European Union.
This strategy not only provide Europe and the United States about a cheap energoelementami, and eliminates the Russian "gas diplomacy", and stop the development of China. In addition, a significant decrease in the export of hydrocarbons constitutes a significant gap in the budget of the Russian Federation. In all this we must note that our home is not quite exports its gas. The fact is that the cost of Russian gas is very high, and reduce the price of gas Russian expensive gas is mixed with a cheap Turkmen and Uzbek gas, it may be exported to zabugornom consumers. Unstained (not mixed) Russian gas is not ready to take even China. Because of the Russian Federation is very fundamentally keep under control Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
1.2.Vozrozhdenie of Russia and Eurasian Alliance
The huge fear in the West is the revival of the Russian Federation, and even more the integration processes in the post-Soviet space, as it contributes to change the balance of forces in favor of the West. To counteract these processes, the West must "dissolve" the former Soviet Union, to sharpen the contradictions between them. And it's very easy to do, you only need to nurture in each country's own separatist nationalists to throw a few hundred religious radicals provoke corruption and ensure social inconstancy. Then, by controlling the local elite (oligarchy dictators, local resource companies), you can steer them in the right direction. These measures fairly and to ensure that the split and the "divorce" of the peoples of Russia. In the "standards" of the result of this "divorce" should be the disintegration of the Russian Federation on a lot of "nedogosudarstv" unable to defend its own sovereignty.
One of the tools of weakening and collapse of the Russian Federation should be the emergence of "impermanence zone" by the band The North Caucasus — Central Asia. Unfortunately, for the merits of this goal is not have a lot of manpower and resources — rather keep control of the streets of Russian cities and manage migration flows at the post-Soviet space and inside the Russian Federation.
2. Extremists of the peoples of the Russian Federation and the Liberals Unite!!
The most valid method to halt the growth of — this is cause confusion. And the saddest part, the citizens of the Russian Federation on their ignorance, going on about the fifth column, do it provoked. Remember that you are the most annoying on the street, on the Web and in other media. That's right, it's gostarbaytery Caucasians. prazdnichkom Muslim, non-Russian speech in the streets, etc. etc. Enraged Russian people Requests Requests that would have removed all non-Russians from the streets, on the other "long harness" the Russian people will start to clean the streets. Verbally, of course, all sounds great, but let us get that these will follow and how it will end, and most importantly whether it is the Russian people?
Scenario number 1 — "paradise on earth"
This script is short and not realistic. The government legislation overrides external migration, foreigners expelled to his native southern borders are locked. Muslim populations are defined as regions that may reside on the territory of the Russian Federation, other areas are for their "closed", check-in, which is prohibited. No effects it causes, none of the countries of the opponents do not try to use it. Immediately starts rapid economic growth. Everyone is happy!
It would be desirable, of course, that was so simple, but we live in a complex world, and not at the usual time. There will always be massive enough force that will try to use it, because another realistic scenario.
Scenario number 2 — "realistic"
Try to understand what may happen in the case of the ban outside and inside of the Muslim movement.
The main countries — sources of migrants Uzbekistan (fraction of currency transfers about 20% of the GDP of Uzbekistan), Kyrgyzstan (29%), Tajikistan (47% of GDP). Rejecting gostarbayterov of these states will lead to the destabilization of the region. On the one hand, of course, nothing horrible — they'll far away, but it will lead to a domino effect, and the consequences will be severely affected, and our homeland.
Social explosion in Uzbekistan, will lead to a fall today, quite awkward regime. But who will replace him? The answer is simple: through the efforts of the United States, Europe, the Saudis it will not pro-Russian Eurasians and faster international terrorists a la Taliban, if not worse … Most likely, the government will capture the movement of "Islamic Movement of Turkestan" (IDT) (formerly the "Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)), the force is as progressive and democratic as the "Taliban". Prerequisites takeover movement IDT already created-scale massacres and killings of people not ethnic Kyrgyz in southern Kyrgyzstan in 2010. In these events on the side of the rioters (Kyrgyzstan) were the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kyrgyzstan. Their victims deprived of their guns do not actually have a chance to counter the thugs. This heated the region, assumptions made to escalate the conflict — nats.menshinstva began armed with the end in 2010. in Afghanistan and Pakistan was secretly airlifted about 300 volunteers "to study" in militant training camps "Taliban" and IDT. And it seems only the first "batch" of recruits. Perhaps the Ferghana valley (the most populous and poorest part of the region) should become the wick means of which will be blown up the whole of Central Asia.
It should be taken into account. that a significant proportion of road users — ci
tizens of Kazakhstan, and their goal — the Islamization of Kazakhstan. Either way, a wave of chaos, will not stay forever in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as overflowed and Turkmenistan.
In this situation, our home will not be able to remain on the sidelines, will be required in union with Kazakhstan (and possibly China) to wage war on terrorists. And Uncle Sam will try. What would they have as much as possible …
In the event that our homeland will not interfere, closes his eyes, then chaos will come through Kazakhstan in the Volga region, the Urals, Siberia … starts long terrorist war on the borders of Russia.
In addition, please note that the SA economy of the region will be one hundred percent destroyed, and that would survive hardworking Uzbek farmers will not grow juicy watermelon and sweet melon, and most likely will handle the poppy fields. When taking into account that these same farmers — agronomists even more capable than their Afghan "colleagues", the amount of heroin will be times, and he is very much cheaper heroin. Themselves aware of that then can happen to a population of Russia …
The results of the struggle with the presence of Caucasians in Russian towns can become more sad. If the law (or other method, including power) Caucasians will be allowed to sit in the area of settlement of the Russian people, immediately raise the question of the output regions of the Caucasian republics of Russia. Motives are ordinary — Caucasians are affected in their rights (including freedom of movement), which automatically makes them human lower grade compared with Russian population.
A more likely option. Or they released to float freely. In this case, Americans, Europeans, Turks and Arabs rapidly transform the North Caucasus region of terrorism, such as Chechnya (1997 to 2000), and begin a long war until our home is not occupied these territories … But what will be the cost?
Perhaps, in the North Caucasus will introduce a regime similar to the apartheid regime in South Africa or the Israeli-occupied Palestine … In general, the situation is rapidly enters into the stage of guerrilla warfare with unclear prospects for both sides.
The consequences will be even worse if you start a massacre in the streets of Russian cities under the influence of nationalist provocateurs. Then, permanent war on the southern borders of the Russian Federation of a possible reincarnated as guaranteed. In the eyes of the public, our motherland will not differ from or what some "cannibalistic" regimes in Africa and Asia.
So Makar, the nationalist hysteria, raised in Russia in the near future, not profitable peoples of Russia and the Russian people do not … Return on it only to the West, and West will continue to give full support to the liberal nationalist opposition in Russia. All the more so that the activities of these forces is more efficient and does not require special costs, in contrast to all other methods.
To counteract these forces only just, it is necessary to soberly assess the situation around you, to monitor the actions of their thoughts. Need to realize that we are all in the same boat and we all shake it unprofitable. It is better to develop a recipe for communicating with natives of the Caucasus, as they are brought up on classical model corresponding to the region. Use in a conversation with them because — means "encourage" their military (Fight) valor, for their fight-reward, as gives rise to the "feats". Even more effective deterrent for them to do because of their republic, their home. The reason is simple-the representatives of ordinary society tend to listen to the elders of his own family, his own village, and police are ordinary people (only with shoulder straps). Shame and disgrace in their village for their more terrible than a broken bone and broken teeth. This is an example, spending policies to narrow the field of inter-ethnic communication can look for a way out, even though some very difficult situation, you only need to take into account national peculiarities of each nation individually. Universal recipes in this field does not happen, all the different peoples.
The motto, voiced in the last article, "Let's live together" makes sense more than the Soviet Union. During Soviet times, the people who inhabit it are not standing on the brink of ethnic wars. As in the previous article, I wish all citizens of the Russian Federation tolerance for each other, mutual respect, and peaceful sky.