"Remember, I was never one to be afraid, not afraid," — said Alexander Lukashenko reporters in Minsk on September 9. The leitmotif of the new stage of sonorous claims to mean that neither the West nor of, any internal opposition to the official's favorite blue-eyed republic will not, "to divide, razderbanit how it worked out for some of our neighbors."
Observers believe that Lukashenko is working on the electorate in a classic style walnut strong — and immediately tries to raise rates in the same bargaining with foreign countries, which strongly denies.
In the morning — the release of political prisoner, in the evening — the means
The President has indirectly confirmed that the regime is taken in a pincer movement. He protested to the IMF, which Minsk asked for a loan of up to 8 billion dollars, "They — the economists, financiers — you know, what a come down? They are demanding to release political prisoners. What does this have to do with the ratio of the IMF? You borrow money and the economy. "
So, although nothing in public IMF itself did not claim (and unlikely to declare — he formally outside politics) West, having a controlling stake in the fund, expected use of this lever and the traditional stage-articulated condition during the day — chairs (release of political prisoners), in the evening — the means.
"Everyone is feeling the smell of blood, Behold, the Belarusians got up on his knees, and they need to finish, to subdue people, pick up the enterprise, some foreign currency to enter" — chewed Lukashenko salt of the moment.
So how hard to imagine that the West imposes on us a buck or euro (enough for the Greeks entered — not now disentangle!) Is to imagine that Moscow secretly revived the plan stands in ruble with double-headed blue-eyed falcon. This is a plus to a known set of requirements regarding privatization on the cost of a number of similar assets (deflotu in favor of the Russian capital).
In general, do not really put pressure on the joke from both sides. Authorities only, and not enough to zaburlilo in Belarus itself. Specifically at calming the public and designed steel statements that no one we de not tilt. People should not fluctuate in strength and steadfastness of the leader.
You are not entered, ladies and gentlemen, comrades!
What did the bottom line, if you remove the foam public relations?
"Dialogue with the West, Lukashenko had not yet gone — concludes Valery Karbalevich, an expert of the analytical center" Strategy "(Minsk). — At least, did not go on to the criteria expected by the Belarusian government. "
In comments to Naviny.by analyst highlighted that the head of the country's de facto disavowed the promise to negotiate with the opposition (though confirmed that secret contacts with the EU emissary — Bulgarian Minister Nikolay Mladenov, and not only with them).
Indeed, September 9 Lukashenko given to understand that the opposition vainly opened mitten: no exclusive negotiations with them specifically power does not mean that. On the estimated round-table (or whatever it will be called) "the whole range of policy should be presented — and the alliance will give, and the unions, and ours, and not ours, and they will be someone from the government."
Simply put, power Europe wanted to implement the second edition of the "broader dialogue of social and political forces" that took place (and also under pressure from the West) in 2000. Then in the middle of the representatives of the opposition dissolved priklnnyh structures and arrangements (namely, political opponents on access to municipal media) simply thrown in the trash.
The Belarusian authorities on the views of the Minsk analyst Andrei Fedorov, "again playing his beloved game," You have got it wrong. "
In an interview for Naviny.by spokesman said: this game for a long time been used in relations with Russia. For example, before the next elections promised to sell the assets, and after the election — made a surprised face. Now in its relations with the EU Minsk is trying to use the same paradigm: we had in mind here is specifically that of a dialogue, and what you thought?
Clearly, Brussels balked. "Such a change is unlikely to introduce Westerners misleading" — said Valery Karbalevich.
But with all this, perhaps, will search for a compromise on the format and rules of the internal political dialogue, which Europe wanted to build in Belarus. In the end, wins Minsk time and minimizes the concessions.
The same applies to the difficulties of political prisoners. On the one hand, Lukashenko on September 9 indirectly confirmed its earlier promises: "The time will come, we are not ruthless, and we release them." On the other hand, stressed that on this issue, "we did not bargain with anyone."
The subtext of representation with a particle "not" are independent experts tend to read through exactly the opposite (and experience confirms the adequacy of this approach to the speech of the Belarusian authorities).
Analysts conclude that the regime while trying to raise their rates in the backroom bargaining with the EU. Of course, the ruling peak believes in store strength she has.
Juche or highways?
On the one hand, according to Andrei Fedorov, "a demonstration of firmness control the electorate is unlikely to compensate for the increase in prices." In other words, kind of operation malehankih but proud republic all the least effective when, as in the old joke goes, "there is nothing to bite."
On the other hand, in line grunt and kitchens (Advanced option: on forums and social networks) are not yet converted into predictable opposition grapes of wrath. Degree regime promised hot illumine this day in question. Weight Belarusians still hit the common paradigm of self-survival of plant and burrows into the beds.
In other words, the compliance of the authorities in the negotiations with Russia and the West will depend not only on the rate of deterioration of the socio-economic situation. "There is almost everything is dependent on the degree of patience of the Belarusian people — emphasizes Valery Karbalevich. — If the company is not going to be very protest, the authorities will continue to hang back. "
And yet it is unlikely the ruling summit hopes that Belarusians, for all their famous unpretentiousness to agree to the European edition of Juche. By the way, Lukashenko in the same speech on September 9 promised compatriots after 5 years of no worse than the German autobahns.
If this is not naked bluff (and if in power, in principle, not atrophied instinct of self-preservation), the intensive care unit on relations with the West (and, accordingly, a number of reforms) have to go.
For totally real prospect now reincarnated as a colony of Russia (who, as you know, two problems …) autobahn Belarusians promises.