On the fall of production growth in Russia in 2012

 

There is a persistent legend of the "fall" of production growth in Russia in the current year, 2012. How is it that we're all rejoicing the success and growth of production — "fall."

Let's deal. To take first the Rosstat data on monthly dynamics of the growth / decline of production by economic activity: mining and quarrying, manufacturing and electricity, gas and water for the period 2011 — 2012,.

Table will not lead, everyone can find it myself right here: http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/B04_03/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d04/197.htm

We plot GROWTH / DROP compared to the same period of the previous year in%. Add a logarithmic trend line. Nothing complicated. Have.

  • Monthly schedule of growth / decline in industrial production in Russia by economic activity
  • Monthly schedule of growth / decline in industrial production in Russia by economic activity

At first glance — everything is correct: There is a continuous fall in the rate of growth of manufacturing industries. But look more closely to the schedule closely.

And then suddenly notice that somewhere in October last year schedule like this varies around the same line. What's so difficult, keeping in the hands of Excel? Now check this out.

We build the same graphics, but since October 2011, and also provide them with logarithmic trend.

  • The same schedule, but since October 2011.
  • The same schedule, but since October 2011.

So much for.

It turns out that for almost a year growth in manufacturing production figures hovering around 4.5-5%, mining — about the numbers of 1%, while the production of electricity, gas and water for the same period revealed a clear upward trend.

Casket was, in fact, offers a very simple. Take schedule Rosstat from here:

http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/B04_03/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d04/193.htm

  • Schedule from the site Rosstat
  • Schedule from the site Rosstat

And it is evident that only in the III quarter of 2011, GDP quarterly, Seasonality, has reached a level? nominal GDP for 2008 (the last pre-crisis year). So, in III quarter, we saw the remains of recovery growth. And only with the IV quarter of 2011 began NOT recovery growth.

Of course, I'm simplifying the situation.

Of course, at this year's GDP and industrial production will affect crop failure and drought. But when you consider the factor of crop failure (and it is — about 1% of GDP), there is no decline in the growth of industrial production is not in sight.

By the way, using this method is fairly easy to predict that manufacturing activity in an average year will grow by about 4.5% (+ / — = 0.2%) (continuation of the trend line until December). And even a little more, but too lazy to count.

And as mining — [yet] is dependent on external demand (growing, by the way, refer to the price of oil). A production of electricity — on what the court frosts, industry growth and demand for aluminum.

 

And try to refute me. I'll bet you a bottle of good brandy.

I do not refer to anyone, because I refer to the Federal State Statistics Service.

:-)

 

And here, by the way, an example of "cautious pessimism":http://ru.reuters.com/art…ews/idRUMSE88G03C20120917— "Industry of the Russian Federation slowed down in August 2012."

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