Riddle Lukashenko earlier arrival to Armenia, Yerevan's attitude towards convergence of Minsk and Baku, the value of the CSTO — topics of conversation with the Armenian political scientist and deputy director of the Caucasus Institute Sergey Minasyan. He's talked to Yuri Drakakhrust.
Drakakhrust: As explained in Yerevan earlier visit of the Belarusian president — two days before the start of the CSTO summit?
Minasian: Information is very small, no officials or political leaders do not comment on the visit. The most popular version is that given the particular format of relations between Armenia leader with President Medvedev, Lukashenko's visit may be related to the search capabilities of reconciliation with the Kremlin. Mediation capabilities Serzh Sargsyan, perhaps, explains the earlier visit of the Belarusian President to informal summit of the CSTO.
Drakakhrust: The Russian press citing Kremlin sources released information that Medvedev is not going to meet during the summit in Yerevan with Lukashenko. Becomes the criterion of success of mediation efforts of the Armenian president is held to such a meeting?
Minasian: It's hard to say how it will be successful. I have seen these publications in the Russian media. Their appearance indirectly confirms that Lukashenko is trying to use mediation resources Serzh Sargsyan for reconciliation with Moscow. On the other hand, the publication of such a position can be seen as the Kremlin's attempt to inflate its negotiating the bar.
Drakakhrust: As far as Armenia is concerned about the political and economic rapprochement between Belarus and Azerbaijan, which is observed lately?
Minasian: This factor takes place. And the fact that Belarus sells armed military enemy Armenia in Armenia is of concern, particularly given the fact that both Armenia and Belarus are in the same military-political bloc. But as far as I know, Belarus seeks to maintain a balance in military supplies in Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the most important thing in Armenia realize that all of these games Lukashenko with Ilham Aliyev, as the latter attempts to play with the Georgian leadership, — nothing but a form of trade with Moscow. I find it hard to imagine that Belarus will become an important transit of Azerbaijani oil and gas.
Drakakhrust: What is the Collective Security Treaty Organization to Armenia? And what is education at all? You said that a military enemy of Armenia — is Azerbaijan. But given the Kyrgyz experience seems unlikely that the CSTO would support Armenia in the event of a military conflict with Azerbaijan.
Minasian: For Armenia, the CSTO is of interest mainly because it is the main engine of the CSTO Russia. And relations with the CSTO, Armenia — is primarily a relationship with Russia. In reality, there is no single CSTO has three of its measurement — European, Caucasian and Central Asian. Between these measurements have nothing in common except the Russian factor. Despite the fact that the Kyrgyz events, and others that have occurred before, give reason to doubt the CSTO, it is the only military and political organization of the post-Soviet space. Even a loose formation has certain security guarantees from the block, and in the case of Armenia — mostly from Russia. The presence of such guarantees more good than bad.