El Nino — a weather anomaly, which in recent years has killed hundreds of people and not just spawned disasters in the Asia-Pacific region, could return by the end of 2004 — has announced the Climate Prediction (Climate Prediction Center) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Administration atmosphere.
In the middle of the Pacific Ocean slightly above normal water temperature has risen by 10-plus centimeters — the level of the sea, while in the eastern part of the ocean water level dropped by 5-13 centimeters.
This is a consequence of abnormal changes in the prevailing winds and water heating pattern, which is the first sign of an emerging El Niño.
Scientists have calculated that the chances that El Niño will be back in three, maximum — 6 months, up 50%, that's a lot, considering that the phenomenon usually happens about once every three years.
And the last time it came back at the turn of 2002-2003 (while in Australia the most severe drought occurred in the last hundred years).
Particularly "violent" El Niño was observed in 1997-1998. The damage is estimated in billions of dollars, and the bill was killed by a hundred.
If the forecast is justified in the most dramatic form, will be a severe drought in Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia, and at the same time — the severe floods in Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia.