Allies like enemies

In the Armenian capital works informal summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The main theme proposed for consideration, — the efforts to stabilize the situation in Kyrgyzstan.

However, the main intrigue of intelligence activities associated with Alexander Lukashenko, who not only gave asylum to the deposed president of Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, but gradually went into a deep opposition to the Kremlin, accusing the leadership of Russia's political and economic blackmail. There are also reports about the possibility of accession of Belarus to the actual anti-Russian alliance of GUAM. Even experienced experts wondered what you can negotiate in such a situation?

CSTO summit was preceded by the official visit of the President of Russia to Armenia Dmitry Medvedev. According to the results of his talks with the Armenian ruler Serzh Sargsyan signed a stack of strategic agreements — the renewal of the Russian military presence in Armenia in 2044 for the construction of nuclear power on the territory of Armenia.

Alexander Lukashenko traveled to Yerevan for 18 August, but no details about his association with the leadership of this country is not made public. It seems that he simply combine business with pleasure, taking a vacation. Armenian journalists learned: Lukashenko, accompanied by the eldest son of Victor spent two days in the company of ex-president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan. Last year, friends have skied at the resort Tsakhadzor, then next to Lukashenko's younger son, Nicholas.

The experts were of the opinion that the Belarusian leader can generally ignore the meeting of CSTO. At least a year ago, such a situation was: the war against breast with Russia Lukashenko boycotted the EU-Africa Summit in Moscow (this year because of the special position of Uzbekistan on the events in Kyrgyzstan on the same step went Uzbek leader Islam Karimov). The relations between the heads of Russia and Belarus is even more intense: the Presidents exchanged correspondence attacks on the brink of a foul, information warfare is conducted through the media. As a Russian expert on post-Soviet countries Arkady Dubnov, attempt to land at a round table of political antagonists adventurous enough, because it is difficult to agree even on the basic issue put on the agenda:

Arkady Dubnov

"If we talk about some kind of unity in the CSTO, it seems quite dim. Example, the president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov participate in the Yerevan meeting does not take, clearly demonstrating that the distance from any decision of the CSTO Kyrgyzstan. Since Belarus is even more uncertain situation: despite the arrival in Armenia Alexander Lukashenko, to rely on his solidarity with Moscow's attitude to the problems of Kyrgyzstan would be absolutely premature. Can count on it unless avid optimists, given another round of scandal in relations between Moscow and Minsk, and shelter are provided in Belarus ousted Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. "

Observers do not rule out that Lukashenko visited Yerevan in the first place for a reconciliation with his Russian colleagues. In particular, sounded the idea that the head of Belarus will "back up" and reduce the bit and on the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. After the Belarusian president said that "there was no solemn promise" in this respect is not given in the Kremlin administration confirmed the readiness to publish the transcript of a public promise to recognize the Republic of Lukashenko. An expert in the Belarusian-Russian relations Andrew Suzdaltsev believes that one of the fundamental issues for Moscow, Minsk was going to put a brake on, and in this case, hope for some dividends from Russia is not:

Andrew Suzdaltsev

"The Russians have a saying — the road spoon for lunch. So, if for Belarus importance of this factor to fade, for Russia, it remains relevant. And wondered: how many it is possible to fool? In Moscow, of course, this not forgotten, although in Minsk probably hoped that the Kremlin is all forgotten. No, do not forget who was with us during the war and who is holed up in the bushes … We see now that Minsk was blowing out the dust from the old argumentnay base. added that in normal cells appeared to persuasion attempts of pressure. Like, Belarus's economy has a broad range of contacts with the West, Moscow should therefore take this into account. Indeed, if anything, Belarus has the ability to maneuver in the foreign policy field. "

Does not exclude the other extreme in recent days exaggerated information about the alleged prepared by the President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili to his Belarus counterpart proposal to shift from the CSTO GUAM — an organization that brings together critics of Russia: Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Ukraine. Like, after the coming to power of Viktor Yanukovych Kiev changed the look on the pro-Russian vector, vacancy could take Belarus. In Minsk, a castling has not yet commented.

Given the size of the informal CSTO summit, Alexander Lukashenko seems to get avoid unpleasant situations and sensitive issues. In the Kremlin press service said earlier that Medvedev is not going to hold a bilateral meeting with Lukashenko. Even hypothetically, such a possibility did not arise in the case of the head of Kyrgyzstan Roza Otunbayeva. While Belarus does not respond to demands to give Bakiyev Bishkek and Minsk have nothing to discuss. And with the other senior officials have to be limited to some backroom conversations.

Gregory Kastusyou

Meanwhile, the Belarusian democratic politicians critical of Belarus' participation in the CSTO. A potential candidate for the presidency of the BPF Gregory Kastusyou issued a statement calling on the government to get out of the CSTO. According to policy, continued participation of Belarus in the organization threatens the country's involvement in local military conflicts in Central Asia. On the other hand, Lukashenko considers CSTO as another platform for blackmailing trade with Moscow in tactical purposes. Although, according to Gregory Kastusyou, Lukashenko myself would like to see in the CSTO kind of "dictatorial international" for the protection of autocratic regimes — "like the one that exists today in Belarus."



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