Metropolitan Carnegie makes predictions about the decline and triple revolution in Russia

It would seem that all the hype about the Russian elections at various levels remained behind, subsided oppozionnye marches rolled "swamp" slogans like "Where is my voice, or a wizard," and "I — Bozena! Shoot! "Yesterday organizers of the" control trips "were walking through the parks and gardens uninvited 10-s of the media. Or NTV with "Anatomy of a protest" tried, or simply worked the laws of physics, and the wave began to fade by itself … But unless there can be met Russian political calmness intrigued by the person that converts creative solitaires zabugornyh offices with the highest ceilings. Individuals on these and then eat the bread and butter to make a life of an ordinary citizen not an example of fun … And the most fascinating that such persons, who are often unaware of the Russian Federation only on the broadcasts CNN, reminders for travelers entering the area of the country or by type of vehicle with tinted windows diplomatic issues of foreign countries, convinced that they understand everything about our past, real and even the future is much better ourselves.

On the day or to "shake control" of the situation in Russia have decided to experts at the Capital Centre Carnegie. As such, for themselves, the organization is so multifaceted that, based on placed on its website program that has designs on virtually any manifestation of domestic (and not only within Russia): Religion, Society and Security — please solving problems of Russian economy — For God's sake, regional policy RF, non-proliferation objectives, the Korean unit, Khodorkovsky, energy prepyadstviya — and then all know and assist to solve. Programs almost sea, but for all their abundance of outdoor general trend — one. It is manifested even in this form of the Carnegie Center as an inexhaustible love of forecasting.

Number of forecasts for a variety of themes coming from professionals Carnegie Center, could be the envy of Wang herself. Often, systematically, the best part — it misses the target, but it does not matter … The main thing, "predict", in order to have at least some opportunity to provide information pressure on the Russian public. As they say, is implemented, not implemented — minor matters, the main thing to plant the idea …

And on the day or to light a another information brainchild, conceived forecasters CIP (so for the sake of brevity we denote Capital Carnegie Center). The new forecast for the coming of the future of Russia, who, who does not like spice from a designated organization, to know better than others.

So, in the report with the poetic title "Awakening Russia" forecasters predict as much maturation triple crisis in our country. As maturation? .. Neuzh it again? ..

The first part of the crisis will be linked to political authoritarianism, which, according to the views of one of the speaker (Maria Lipman), thriving in Russia. Rapporteur on the views, do not give your attention to the fact that the activity of political protests subsides. Need of attention given to the fact that "the mood is not going anywhere." President Putin conducted a survey in the middle of the Russians, the presenters of the CIP is not dubbed the favorite country, "the leader of the oligarchs."

The leitmotif of the report on a brand new turn of the political crisis, in principle, would be clear: the opposition in fact, all the same to keep your brand. But then the experts at Carnegie Center suddenly claim that Putin's rating, really, is about 60% of what your favorites from other countries could only envy.

It turns out that the ICC in Russia predicts severe political crisis, but with all this confirms the fact that the current head of the country supports the majority of Russians. This is, I'm sorry, what? Rating Hollande in France or Merkel in Germany several times lower than Putin's, but no matter the Carnegie Center, for some reason, dramatic political changes in these countries do not predict.

Then it is almost incomprehensible, as recognized joined ISC highest rating of Putin with the words of the speakers forecasters that the political situation in Russia will only get worse, because the president sees people as a leader oligarchy. Judging by the estimates of professionals ICC, then, it appears that 60% of the Russian Federation or the oligarchs themselves, or are close to them in similar or friendship ties. Such Qatar on a larger scale …

The second part of the crisis, foretells of, it crisis capitalism. Well, here ICC, as they say, discovered America … If you consider that, since the early 90's capitalism "with a human face" we did not show up, it is appropriate to talk about the predictions about the coming of the capitalist crisis. Yes, we live in it, the very small, for 20 years. One can imagine that in the middle of the 90s, we had just exemplary market economy … And you can use your loaf, and that only after the elections in Russia 2011-2012 exports of raw materials began to play a major role in terms of filling the state budget money.

And, finally, a third of the crisis in Russia, according to the views of forecasters from the center Carnegie, associated with the development of Russian society, paternalism, when most people associate their success with only one person. The same Lipman says that paternalism may increase after Putin's speech to the Federal Assembly. In her opinion, Putin will declare himself the main fighter against corruption, which will further strengthen the paternalistic start.

In the end, the speakers ICC have concluded that the evolutionary scenario RF it seems the least likely than revolutionary. In this phrase, perhaps, is the main idea of this "prediction". Say, although protests have come to naught, although the president's rating is high, although the economic situation looks measured, but, you know, it is still a revolution in RF imminent.

What with all this guided forecasters may be that voices from other planets, stars, maybe reports of Doomsday on the Mayan calendar, perhaps manuscripts overseas forecasters modern times? — Hard to say, but usually in this case, they say: Gentlemen, just want to have given out for real … but we want to come true is not far away at all times. For the CIP as unfortunate it did not sound, and ah …

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